Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 220707
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
307 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure leaving the area today will allow for a southwest
wind to bring slightly milder temperatures for this afternoon.
Low pressure will drop out of Canada early Tuesday with
scattered showers, mainly across central NY. Cooler and breezy
conditions with some lake effect showers develop by Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 AM Update...

Persistent stratocu across the region early this morning is
expected to erode with time today as flow backs to a warmer
southwesterly direction in the wake of departing high pressure
and low pressure dropping south from northern Ontario. Spray of
lake effect precipitation across our northern zones will also
lift north and fade away. Soundings suggest enough low level
mixing to release the low level clouds, however, increasing
saturation in the 700-500 mb layer suggests high clouds will be
surging into the area, making for little notice of improvement
to sky cover. The good news is that we should be about ten
degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the upper 40s-lower
50s.

Nothing of significance is expected tonight while the clipper-
like wave approaches. Variable cloudiness with an increasing
trend toward morning is likely with generally a slow drop in
temperatures. There may be some local temperature issues with
rapid decoupling and cooling this evening in any areas that
manage to maintain clear to partly cloudy skies. These trends
will have to be monitored, but overall, readings should average
in the upper 30s-lower 40s. Winds will stay up a little (5-10
mph), especially on the hilltops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
200 AM Update...

The clipper-like system will move through the area Tuesday with
rain showers forming along the track of the low. Rain chances
still look to be highest across the NY Thruway area in northern
parts of the region and lowest across northeast PA. Rainfall
amounts are expected to stay rather light and under a quarter of
an inch. Steep lapse rates and some mid-level dry air will aid
in transporting stronger southerly and westerly wind gusts of
around 15-20 mph to the surface till the clipper passes. Highs
will once again get close to 50 ahead of the clipper system.

A mid-level trough then sets up Tuesday night and beyond.
Several mid-level disturbances move through the region combining
with unstable northwest flow off the Great Lakes. These factors
will keep the chance for some rain showers in the forecast with
a focus in central NY, particularly the upslope areas closer to
Lake Ontario. Temperatures Tuesday night will be in the 30`s,
but not cold enough to produce any accumulating snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 am update...
Little change to this period. Can be split into 3 different
periods - Wed/Wed ngt...lake effect, Thursday to Fri ngt...dry
with high pressure, and Sat to Mon...nor`easter to lake effect.
Continue the same theme with temperatures below normal.
Temperatures mostly go from highs in the 40s to lows in the 20s
to around freezing.

Wednesday to Wednesday night cold advection is dominant on a
northwest low level flow into the area. Temperatures aloft get
cold enough for moderate instability late Wednesday into Wed
night. While some snow may mix with the rain showers across the
higher terrain Wednesday, temperatures are cold enough in the
low levels to be mostly snow Wednesday night. Flow is around 330
so a Georgian Bay connection is not likely. Rain and snow
amounts will be light again. The highest amounts will be over
the higher terrain in the eastern Finger Lakes into the upper
Susquehanna Region. Enhancement downstream from the Finger Lakes
such as Cayuga, Owasco, and Skaneateles. Liquid amounts under a
quarter of an inch. Snow amounts mostly under an inch. Highs in
the 40s and lows from the mid 20s to around 30.

The discussion from yesterday for the rest of the time still
holds. Still uncertainty for the weekend storm. We will get some
rain and snow but how much of each is uncertain.

previous discussion...
Thursday through Friday night:
High pressure builds eastward into the region leading to a mostly
sunny period. Any lake effect clouds and flurries should clear out
in the morning hours on Thursday. Much colder temperatures in
the boundary layer and cold air advection will result in
another day where high temperatures struggle to get out of the
30`s. Lows Thursday night should fall into the upper 20`s to
around 30 with highs rebounding on Friday into the 40`s. Friday
night looks chilly with another clear night and lows in the
upper 20`s.

Saturday through Sunday:
A Low pressure system will slowly organizes along the gulf
coast into the Southeastern United States Saturday. There is
still quite a bit of difference with the model and ensemble
solutions for this feature as it moves north and east on Sunday.
About half of the solutions still have no impact to our area.
However, the other half bring a developing area of low pressure
up the coast that could potentially turn into a nor`easter.
Models have also trended quite a bit colder over the past few
runs as well making precipitation type more of a question. If a
dry airmass can get into our region coupled with a upper level
low track over us dynamical cooling could result in
precipitation falling as snow as shown with the 10/21 00Z ECMWF.
However, only a handful of members show this outcome with more
leaning in the way of rain should the storm track up the coast.
Also of note the NAO has trended toward more of an Archambault
look at this time which would favor a coastal track. Still a lot
to sort through for next weekend and it will likely not be
known for several more days what impact if any a potential
coastal storm would have. Temperatures will range from the 30`s
through the 40`s also dependent on the low track.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR ceilings of 3500-6000 feet are expected today,
increasing and eroding gradually from south to north this
afternoon and tonight. A period of MVFR is possible prior to
12Z this morning in areas with lake effect rain showers
translating across CNY on the heels of a weak disturbance.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR. Chance of restrictions in occasional showers.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...MWG/TAC
AVIATION...JAB



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