Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS61 KBGM 210835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
435 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

A coastal storm will impact the region through this evening
bringing several inches of snow to parts of northeast
Pennsylvania and Sullivan county in New York State. The rest of
the area will remain cloudy and cold with scattered flurries or
a few snow showers through Friday.


No changes to current headlines.

Models have come into better agreement with the 00Z cycle. The
only adjustment was a slight nudge northward for the
accumulating snow and a slight increase in snow totals for the
advisory area.

At 4AM, flurries have just started at Hazleton. Local radars
show returns just brushing the far southern forecast area with
little movement north as upper level low spins over Kentucky
and cells propagate west. Dewpoint depressions are still 15-20
degrees in the advisory area.

Upper level low over Kentucky will move east to Virgina/North
Carolina by 18Z then in the vicinity of Delmarva by 00Z. Surface
low pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will track slowly
north today as system becomes vertically stacked. This evening
the low will be well off the southern New Jersey coast and lift
farther out to sea. A very tight moisture gradient is expected
along the north edge of this system due to a very dry northeast
flow. The snow will spread across the advisory area through mid
morning with the heaviest activity expected from late morning
through the afternoon. The greatest accumulations will be in the
higher elevations with road surfaces most likely just wet or
slushy by midday due to higher sun angle and temperatures around
freezing. Steady snowfall will depart the advisory area by late
evening. A general snowfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected in the
advisory area. The greatest accumulations will be in the higher
elevations of southern Luzerne and Pike counties where around 7
inches is likely. Northern Wayne and Wyoming counties could see
light accumulations around two inches. For the remainder of the
region just cold and mostly cloudy/cloudy with highs in the
lower to middle 30s. This afternoon and evening northerly winds
will increase to 10 to 20 MPH with higher gusts causing some
blowing and drifting snow in the advisory area.

Once the system leaves the far southeast forecast area the
remainder of the period will be dry with just some scattered
flurries and continued cold conditions under north/northwest
flow. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 20s with
highs on Thursday in the 30s.


3 AM Update...
Period will continue to feature below normal temperatures,
courtesy of a chilly northwest flow off of Lake Ontario that may
yield a few snow showers and flurries.

A wave will dig its way through the back side of the broad
upper trough over the Great Lakes-Northeast regions Thursday
night into Friday, with the core of the wave even closing off
its own compact upper low as it passes in our general region.
There is disagreement in the models on whether that core passes
directly over our vicinity like the GFS, or further south like
the ECMWF. The NAM is somewhere in between. Regardless, cold air
advection aloft should be enough to initiate a minor lake
response, which along with steepened lapse rates will allow at
least scattered snow showers and flurries late Thursday night
through Friday. Moisture will be shallow enough to keep any
accumulations nominal, but most of our region will see some
snowflakes flying in the air at times, even into Northeast

After lower to mid 20s for lows Thursday night, highs of lower
30s-near 40 are figured Friday though with dewpoints low enough
to keep precipitation type as all snow due to wetbulbing. Good
mixing will push gusts easily into 15-25 mph range Friday. Upper
teens-lower 20s are expected for lows Friday night, then highs
again lower 30s-near 40 Saturday. Winds will still be
northwesterly, but at lower speeds than Friday. Also, the
stratocumulus will be very shallow, which should prevent
flurries for most if not all of the area.


Our region will be in between a low pressure system tracking
through the Ohio Valley and a high pressure system moving across
Hudson Bay. Modeling over the past couple of days has trended
toward more influence from the high pressure system keeping any
significant influence from the Ohio Valley low pressure system
south of the region. For now, will continue with low or slight
chances of precipitation on Sunday. Modeled 925/850 mb temps
will slowly begin to modify giving an indication of a slow
warming trend. Highs Sunday should be in the 30`s and low 40`s
with lows around 20 for most of the region.

Monday through Tuesday:
The high pressure system will move offshore allowing for a
warmer southerly flow to become dominant. A gradual warming
trend will continue. Nudged temperatures above model consensus
as well given the degree of warm air advection and the potential
for more in the way of sunshine. Highs both days should be well
into the 40`s for most places after starting out in the 20`s
for most locations. The next cold front should hold off till
after Tuesday.


A coastal system will bring restrictions to the KAVP terminal
during this TAF period but VFR conditions forecast for the
remainder of the TAF sites. At KRME/KSYR high clouds will lower
to a mid deck later this afternoon. At KITH/KELM/KBGM, a mid
deck will develop toward daybreak with low VFR conditions by
this evening. At KAVP, IFR snow will develop around 14Z with
conditions dropping to Alternate mins this afternoon with
improvement to VFR by early evening.

Winds N/NE through today at 8-12 knots with gusts around 20
knots this afternoon at KELM/KBGM/KAVP. Northwest winds this
evening at 8-10 knots with gusts around 18 knots.


Late Wednesday night through Thursday...Minor ceiling
restrictions and perhaps a stray flurry possible from cool NW
flow off of the Great Lakes, mainly NY terminals.

Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.


PA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ044-
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for NYZ062.


AVIATION...RRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.