Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 192305
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
705 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain clear skies and seasonable
temperatures through Friday night. Patchy early morning valley
fog is likely around the Southern Tier and Delaware valley
regions into Saturday morning. Gradual warming will occur into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be in control much of this time with little
to consider besides diurnal temperature and dewpoint
trends...some high clouds at times, and light winds. Generally
followed a blend of the short term guidance, although leaned
harder on the Canadian GEM dewpoint fields tomorrow afternoon
which seem to capture the mixed boundary layer the best.
Temperatures tonight will be a touch warmer than last night,
with highs on Friday about 4-8 degrees warmer than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Saturday will be primarily dry through early afternoon before a
system in the mid Atlantic region brings chance/slight POPS into
northeast Pennsylvania, the southern tier and the western
Catskills. Models not showing much instability either surface
based or aloft so will not mention any thunder. Highs will range
in the mid to upper 70s with lower 80s in the Lake Plain.

Saturday night/Sunday...A fairly tight low pressure circulation
both at the surface and in the mid levels will track from the
mid Atlantic region north to the vicinity of the western
Catskills by Sunday morning then north into southern Ontario by
afternoon. Will carry likely POPS Saturday night primarily east
of I81 then likely POPS Sunday morning in the northern forecast
area then just chance by afternoon as the system lifts north.
Will include a chance for thunder both Saturday night and Sunday
due to mid level instability Saturday night and surface based
instability on Sunday. Highs will range in the middle 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended period looks rather wet as an upper level low drops
south through the Tennessee Valley and into the Gulf States
while an upper level ridge remains in the western Atlantic.
These features will produce a deep southerly flow of very moist
air across the entire eastern United States. Precipitable water
values through much of the week will be around 2 inches.
Coverage is expected to be more widespread during the daylight
hours due to diurnal instability. Will carry chance POPS for the
nighttime period and likely POPS during the day. A northern
stream upper level trough will drop into eastern Canada late in
the period with associated surface cold front likely crossing
the area on Thursday. Once this front pushes through the very
wet period will be over. Even though current antecedent
conditions are dry the long duration of possible wet weather
will need to be monitored for possible hydro problems.

Highs through the period will be slightly above normal while
overnight temperatures will range 5 to 10 degrees above normal
and feel rather muggy with high dew points.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clear skies and light winds are forecast for the next 24 hours
as high pressure remains in control of our weather.

Patchy light fog may form at KELM between 9z and 11z, with brief
visibility restrictions of 2 SM to 4 SM.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...VFR ceilings. Locally dense
valley fog possible near KELM and KAVP.

Saturday night through Tuesday...Periods of showers and
thunderstorms. Restrictions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP


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