Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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759
FXUS63 KBIS 161714
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Increased high temperatures by a few degrees across most of
western and central North Dakota today as cloud cover has rapidly
decreased and current surface weather observations show
temperatures are warming rapidly. No other notable changes were
needed with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 941 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

No significant changes were needed with this forecast update.
Updated the sky cover forecast to better match current satellite
observations, which show broken mid level to high level clouds
across western and much of central North Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

No major changes for this morning`s update. Populated winds
through this evening with the latest iteration of CONSMOS as the
cold front sweeps through and pressure rises nudge in. In general,
the guidance remains about the same with some gusts ranging from
25 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Otherwise, just blended the latest
observations with the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

A surface cold front associated with a fast moving Clipper
continues to sweep across the state from the north, currently
draped along a line from near Williston, southeast to Bismarck,
and into the southern James River Valley. Behind the front, 3-hour
surface pressure rises of 1 to 3 mb will develop through the late
morning afternoon hours, bringing another round of gusty winds to
the forecast area. Sustained winds will range from 15 to 25 mph,
with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

The pressure bubble vacates the area quickly and winds will likely
start to relax across the west in the later afternoon. Across the
central and east, winds will diminish in the early evening or near
sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

As the Clipper departs and the western ridge begins to flatten,
it appears to be full speed ahead for the mid week warming
trend. Strong warm air advection on Wednesday will lead to
afternoon highs ranging from the 50s across the Turtle Mountains
and James River Valley to the mid 60s in the western half of the
state. Widespread highs in the 60s will spread across most of the
state on Thursday.

The ridge continues to break down and pronounced split flow
develops across the central part of the continent Thursday night.
Another Clipper dives southeast out of Canada and a cold front
will once again accompany this mid level feature, bringing more
brisk northwest winds and cooler temperatures back into the
Northern Plains Friday and Saturday. Another temperatures rebound
is possible again towards the beginning of next week.

Dry conditions are expected through the entire long term forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A cold
front continues to push south across the state and will usher in
another round of gusty northwest winds across the forecast area
this afternoon. Winds will diminish first in the west by late
afternoon and then in the early evening or close to sunset
elsewhere.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TK
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...ZH



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