Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 152314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
614 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Did lower overnight low temperatures a few degrees, closer to the
12-18 UTC statistical consensus given the dry airmass and high
pressure in place. Otherwise, a quiet evening and overnight is


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

18Z water vapor imagery showed a large upper level low over
northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba with northwesterly flow developing
aloft over North Dakota. Post-frontal cloud cover lingers over the
James River Valley with clear skies amid building high pressure
to the north and west. Given the surface high sliding in from the
northwest and surface dew point temperatures in the upper 40s to
low 50s we opted to run with the low end of the guidance spectrum
on temperatures tonight with expected lows in the low 50s.

Low level northerly flow and CAA continues through Monday with
high pressure building over northeast North Dakota. Expect upper
60s to low 70s across the north-central while the southwest
rebounds to the low to mid 80s. Mostly sunny skies and light
winds forecasted thanks to the upper level ridging pattern.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Northwest flow pattern continues aloft through early Tuesday with
dry conditions and mostly clear skies. Chances for thunderstorms
return Tuesday night through Wednesday with a weak upper level low
forecast to move through. Given the weak flow aloft with this
system...the threat for severe weather remains low.

A broad h500 level ridge pattern persists through the
week...warming temperatures back to the 80s by mid-week. Recent
global model runs have been hinting at a ridge breakdown by this
weekend. Chances for thunderstorms return however uncertainty in
timing and potential for severity remains.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

VFR conditions for the 00 UTC TAF cycle across western and
central North Dakota with surface high pressure.




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