Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 170852
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
352 AM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight.

The cold front is now south of the area and we are beginning to see
the rain shift southward. Still quite a bit of time before the rain
ends across the north and central sections by early afternoon. Based
on the consensus of models and ongoing activity shifted the best
chances of rain this morning between I-20 and I-85.  As dry air
enters the area from the north we will begin to see less coverage by
late morning. Most activity will be done before sunset, but skies
will remain cloudy through Midnight before some clearing can take
place. Highs today will be in the 60s north to low 80s south. Lows
will be in the mid 40s north to mid 50s south.

16


.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Wednesday.

The cold front has pushed out of our area by the time we reach
Thursday morning. High pressure builds in through the Midwest with
upper level ridging aloft. As the center of the high pressure slides
eastward through the Ohio River Valley Thursday into Friday, expect
winds to shift from northerly to easterly. Overall, temperatures for
the end of the week remain mild with rain-free conditions.

Another cold front moves through the Central Plains Friday
afternoon. A pre-frontal shortwave trough moves through the Mid-MS
and TN River Valleys late Friday into early Saturday morning. This
will act to increase lift during the overnight hours, especially
northwest of I-59 corridor, so I`ll keep rain chances higher (60-
70%) into early Saturday morning. Frontal passage should take place
during the day Saturday as the cold front speeds up and catches up
to the pre-frontal shortwave boundary. The front will out of
Central AL by the evening, so expect rain chances to clear out
Saturday night into Sunday.

High pressure once again builds in across the region as the upper
level trough pushes through the East Coast. Cold air advection is
well in place by Sunday morning, with high temps dropping into the
low 40s in the north and near 50 for the southern counties. Sunday`s
highs will likely remain 5-10 degrees below normal due to the tight
pressure gradient keeping the cool northerly to northeasterly winds
advecting the cooler air mass into the area. By Sunday night, the
pressure gradient weakens as the center of the high pressure at
850mb is over Northern AL. The synoptic scale subsidence
associated with the high pressure will lead to mostly clear skies
overnight into Monday morning, which combined with the calmer
winds will allow for effective radiational cooling, and our
coolest temperatures of the season so far. The work-week will
start with lows in the low to mid 40s area-wide with some
locations in the northern counties dropping slightly below 40
degrees.

The ridge shifts to our east by Monday afternoon, allowing more
southerly flow to moderate our diurnal temperatures Monday afternoon
through Wednesday.

25/Owen


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A surface front has pushed to be south of all TAFs at present
writing with low IFR and below cigs behind the front developing
or already present along with some post frontal rain showers
possible through early morning (best moisture for rain chances
closer to the I-20 corridor). Visibilities may go down with the
rain as well. Low clouds should clear by late morning as much
drier air moves in behind the front and rain chances come to an
end.

08


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will increase today as a front slowly moves through
the region. Cooler readings return by mid week with a rain break
for late Wednesday into Thursday. However, rain chances return
again for late Friday into the weekend as another frontal system
moves into the area. No fire weather concerns are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  48  71  51  71 /  40   0   0   0  10
Anniston    71  50  74  53  73 /  40   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  68  51  72  56  74 /  40   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  69  51  73  56  78 /  60   0   0   0  10
Calera      70  51  73  55  74 /  60   0   0   0  10
Auburn      76  55  74  56  70 /  30   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  78  56  78  60  78 /  20   0   0   0  10
Troy        80  56  79  59  78 /  20   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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