Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 202358 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
558 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate low
to mid level clouds across the CWA early this evening. Ceilings
were near 2100ft at KBRO to near 5000ft at KBKS. Expect MVFR to
near IFR conditions to develop across the Rio Grande valley late
tonight into early Wed morning as a coastal trough develops across
the western Gulf of Mexico tonight and moves northward towards the
lower Texas coast. This will provide light rain/drizzle/mist
across the coastal sections of the CWA tonight and across the
eastern portions of the CWA Wednesday.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018/
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night): Looks like a coastal
lower pressure area combined with the steady pulse of southern
Plains to lower Mississippi Valley high pressure pushing south
over the CWA and northwest Gulf will continue in the short term.
Not much change in the ongoing forecast, which advertises cool
weather under cloudy skies. Overrunning 850 mb southeast flow
picks up through Wednesday night, riding up over the cooler
surface based air and increasing light to moderate (near the
coast) rain chances, which really won`t result in any heavy
accumulations, just hundredths to tenths of an inch. Temps will be
mainly in the lower to mid 50s at night, with 50s to lower 60s
for highs on Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): A mid level disturbance has
worked across Texas to kick off the long term period as
overrunning southeast flow at 850mb continues. Believe most of the
models are too optimistic with clearing this out. Have leaned
toward the cooler models and slower timing on improving
conditions, sticking to a very fall-like Thanksgiving across Deep
South Texas with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Continued cloudy, cool, and wet conditions into early Black Friday,
with a nicer afternoon and evening on tap. Southerly flow fully
returns and warms temperatures to near-normal or even slightly
above normal by Saturday in the mid to upper 70s with a welcome
bout of sunshine. The next cold front swings through Sunday
afternoon with strong northerly winds, dropping temperatures back
into the 60s for early next week.

Expect the front to pass with little to no precipitation inland,
however, have kept isolated showers along the coast and lower RGV.
A fast moving mid level disturbance and trough of low pressure
passes Texas Monday night into Tuesday, with the trough axis
swinging out over the Gulf by Tuesday afternoon. At this time,
have only isolated PoPs Tuesday morning.

Marine (Now through Wednesday night): Small craft should
exercise caution conditions will remain ongoing on the Gulf
tonight due to wave heights of 4 to 6 feet. Northeast winds will
drop to moderate. Northeast winds will strengthen again on
Wednesday, becoming fresh to strong Wednesday night on the Gulf,
and north at 15 to 20 knots on the Laguna Madre. Small craft
advisory conditions will develop on the Gulf with small craft
should exercise caution conditions for the Laguna Madre. This will
be the product of continued interaction between high pressure
over the northwest Gulf and coastal low pressure/troughing just
east of the CWA over the adjacent coastal waters. Light rain
chances will increase Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Thursday through Sunday Night: Small Craft Advisory conditions
continue into Thursday night before subsiding as more stable,
southerly flow returns to the coastal waters of the lower Texas
coast. Very favorable winds and seas are expected Saturday into
late Sunday morning before a cold front Sunday afternoon. This
next front packs another wallop of strong northerly winds,
possibly reaching gale-force, Sunday evening into early Monday

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ170-175.


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