Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 200332 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1032 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...

No major changes needed to the forecast for the overnight period.
Showers have mostly waned and/or moved off to the northeast this
evening. However, latest HRRR runs indicate redevelopment over the
Gulf Waters with this activity possibly approaching the coast.
Some heavy downpours may accompany these showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Overnight lows in the 60s inland with low 70s
along the immediate coast look reasonable.

The Coastal Flood Advisory and High Risk of Rip Currents remain in
effect into Saturday morning. Tidal levels along the barrier
islands should reach 2 ft MSL during high tide over the next
couple of hours.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 724 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00z aviation.

AVIATION...

Poor flying conditions will continue through the taf period. Low
clouds should return at VCT over the next few hours as MVFR/IFR
ceilings prevail ALI/CRP/LRD. LIFR ceilings will also be possible
at times overnight into Saturday morning as well. Included some
VCSH remarks tonight through the mid morning hours as the threat
for intermittent light rain/showers continue. Winds through the
period will be out of the northwest to north, generally less than
12 knots.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 402 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

The GFS ensemble mean suggest the development of a coastal trough
Sunday night/Monday, with would combine with copious moisture (GFS
deterministic) to generate scattered/numerous convection Sunday
night through Tuesday. The GFS ensemble mean depict a mean upper
trough west of Texas which suggests that a series of upper
disturbances will move across the region Wednesday-Friday and
contribute to additional precipitation.

Marine...

A coastal trough will lead to light and variable winds this evening.
A reinforcing high pressure system will begin moving into the area
Sat morning leading to a moderate offshore flow. The offshore flow
is expected to increase to advisory levels by Sat night.

Minor tidal overflow is expected tonight in response to persistent
long period swells. The tide levels have increased to around 1 foot
above normal, which will lead to levels reaching 2 feet above MSL
during high tide. Therefore, have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory
for tonight into Sat morning to capture the various high tides
overnight into Sat morning. The risk of rip currents will remain
high tonight as well.

SCA conditions expected Sunday/Monday due to strong northeast wind
owing to strengthening MSLP gradient associated with increasing
surface high pressure to the north, and the coastal trough
development. The persistent northeast wind trajectory should
contribute to elevated water levels along the coast, and thus
minor coastal flooding may occur again during the Sunday
night/Monday period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    68  75  66  72  60  /  50  60  40  30  50
Victoria          66  73  62  71  56  /  60  50  20  10  20
Laredo            63  71  62  65  56  /  20  50  50  60  60
Alice             66  73  64  70  57  /  40  50  40  30  50
Rockport          69  77  67  73  61  /  60  60  30  20  40
Cotulla           64  71  61  67  55  /  20  50  40  30  50
Kingsville        67  74  66  72  60  /  40  60  50  40  50
Navy Corpus       71  76  70  74  64  /  60  70  40  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday For the
     following zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...
     Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...
     Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...
     Kleberg Islands...Nueces Islands.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT Saturday For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Calhoun Islands...Kleberg
     Islands...Nueces Islands.

GM...None.

&&

$$

XX/99...SHORT TERM


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