Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200632
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
132 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Tranquil conditions are expected through Saturday afternoon as a
drier air mass spreads into western Kansas in wake of a surface
trough pushing out of eastern Kansas into Missouri and eastern
Oklahoma. Near normal temperatures are expected tonight as surface
high pressure in the Colorado Rockies slowly pushes into the Western
High Plains, reinforcing a cooler/drier air mass across the region.
Considering clear skies along with light and variable winds, look
for lows down into the 30s(F) across west central Kansas tonight to
the 40s(F) in south central Kansas. Surface high pressure will be
slow to migrate across western Kansas Saturday resulting in light
easterly upslope winds only developing by late afternoon. This
will do very little to the air mass settled across the high plains
with H85 temperatures ranging from a little above 5C in central
Kansas to a little above 10C closer to the Colorado border. Should
see widespread highs in the 60s(F) Saturday afternoon under mostly
sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Precip chances return to western Kansas late Tuesday as medium range
models indicate an upper level trough transitioning eastward across
the Desert Southwest, setting up an increasingly difluent southwest
flow aloft across the Western High Plains as early as Tuesday
afternoon. This will coincide with a developing southeast upslope
flow that will begin to slowly draw moisture back up into central
and portions of southwest Kansas. This will set the stage for
potential light/moderate rain development across the area late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. It`s too early to determine whether
any hazardous weather will be possible.

Seasonal temperatures will continue Sunday as low level southerlies
return to western Kansas Sunday on the backside of a departing high
while lee side troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Slightly
warmer air will nudge back up into the high plains allowing highs to
climb well up into the mid/upper 60s(F) to near 70F Sunday afternoon.
Similar temperatures are likely Monday afternoon even as a cold front
begins to edge into northern portions of western Kansas. Cooler
temperatures are expected Tuesday as the frontal boundary pushes
further south across western Kansas before stalling out somewhere
generally near, if not south of the Oklahoma border.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Broad surface high pressure and subsidence aloft will promote clear
sky and light winds though the TAF period across southwest and
central Kansas. No significant impacts to aviation are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  67  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  37  66  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  37  67  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  38  68  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  39  64  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  44  68  41  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell


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