Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 120858
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
258 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

...Updated short term, long term and fire weather discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Much calmer and mild conditions can be expected today across
central and southwest Kansas. The upper level shortwave trough
that brought the cold front through western Kansas on Monday has
moved off into the eastern sections of the country. Surface high
pressure behind the front was moving south across far western
Kansas early this morning. As this continues south, low level warm
advection on westerly downslope flow will develop across the
forecast area. Think that the going temperature forecast of highs
in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s is not too far off given that low
level mixing and downslope wind flow will not have quite the
impact as on Monday. The going forecast leans toward the warmest
model/MOS guidance numbers and have stayed fairly close to it, if
not adding a degree or two here and there.

Westerly downslope wind flow will continue into tonight and could
actually increase somewhat from the northwest toward Wednesday
morning in advance of the next cold front. Low temperatures should
be a few degrees warmer than this morning, generally in the low
to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Another fast moving shortwave trough and associated surface cold
front will push south through the central High Plains early on
Wednesday. Low atmospheric temperatures behind this front look
similar, if not a degree or two cooler, to the front on Monday.
Expect high temperatures to top out in the upper 50s to low 60s.
On the heels of this wave, another shortwave trough will drop
south over the eastern slopes of the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. Moisture with this system will be lacking so only some mid
and high level cloudiness is expected. Cooler air will be spreading
southward into western Kansas with this system. Highs on Thursday
may struggle to reach 50 degrees over much of the area.

Another strong shortwave trough is expected to dig a little deeper
into the central and southern Plains as it moves out of the
Pacific Northwest Saturday into Saturday night.This wave could
actually bring some much needed moisture to the High Plains. The
00z run of the Superblend paints some slight chance pops over far
southwest Kansas Saturday night. Will leave this forecast intact
for now. Given the positive tilt configuration of this wave plus
the continued lack of decent low level moisture, am inclined to
think that any measurable rain or snow that does occur with this
system will be confined to the upslope favored areas along the
Colorado Front Range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all the central and southwest
Kansas terminals through this period. Surface high pressure will
slide south across western Kansas overnight with a weak lee side
trough developing over eastern Colorado on Tuesday. Winds will
gradually shift from the north to the southwest through the period
but should generally remain aob 10 knots.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

A strong cold front will push through western Kansas early
Wednesday with northerly winds increasing behind the front. Model
trends with this system are still suggesting that relative
humidity levels will fall into the upper teens to 20 percent
during the day...above critical RH levels. Still, it will be a
good day to avoid outdoor burning given the gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  35  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  32  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  62  33  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  62  31  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  56  34  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  32  63  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard



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