Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 182334

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
634 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Thunderstorms will once again be in the forecast through tonight.
A dying MCS moving through central Kansas will produce an outflow
boundary this afternoon mainly along the highway 96 corridor. This
will combine with a weak low pressure trough and 700 mb shortwave
moving into northwest Kansas by late this afternoon and this
evening to produce convergence for thunderstorm development.

Environment looks favorable initially for a supercell or two to
produce some hail and winds. 0-6 km bulk shear parameters are
their highest in quite some time at around 35-45 kts, combining
with a robust area of CAPE (~3000 J/kg) and a theta e tounge
moving into northwest Kansas by late this afternoon into the
evening. Thunderstorms should eventually become more linear in
nature and weaken through the late evening as the low level
convergence weakens.

Mild overnight lows will be expected tonight with robust moisture
at the surface and this will lead to hot temperatures for
Thursday. Model outlooks have most of the area have air
temperatures around 100 with heat index values in the southwest
zones at 105-108 which will make heat advisory criteria. 850 temps
are expected to reach to 29-32 (C).

Thunderstorms could once again break out Thursday afternoon in the
northwest zones with another day of upslope flow due to
east/southeast winds. Upper level flow will continue out of the
northwest and another 700 mb shortwave will develop. Depending on
how the environment evolves and if the cap can be broken...strong
storms that develop could once again have a favorable severe
environment with ~4000 J/kg CAPE and 0-6 km bulk shear in the
35-45 kt range.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

General trend throughout the long term will continue to be upper
level flow out of the northwest as a result of a stalled out upper
low in the eastern parts of the country and a huge ridge in the
desert southwest. Periodic waves of upper level energy will
provide more chances of spotty showers and storms.

Upslope flow will continue throughout Friday with another batch of
thunderstorms developing in the afternoon in the vicinity of a 700
mb shortwave and a frontal boundary lining up somewhere in the
southwest zones. Spotty marginal severe storms could be a
possibility again given the good CAPE and decent shear fields
along and ahead of the front.

The weekend at this point may be trending drier as the upper level
ridge moves a little bit more to the east scouring out some of the
lower level moisture and moving the upslope flow eastward. There
could be once again some 700 mb shortwaves moving through so there
could still be some small potential for storms.

Monday with the ridge retreating westward we could once again
return into more favorable moisture, upslope flow, and a 700 mb
shortwave to trigger thunderstorms by the afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday continue the potential stormy trend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

A weak pressure gradient will lead to light winds at less than 10
kts through the period. Only some boundary layer cumulus based
AOA040 can be expected during the afternoons and early evenings.
There is a very small chance of an isolated storm this evening and
again toward the end of the period, otherwise VFR conditions will
persist at the TAF sites.


DDC  72 102  71  98 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  69 101  68  98 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  70 102  71 102 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  71 103  71 103 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  71  98  70  93 /  20  20  10   0
P28  74 103  73 100 /  10   0  10   0


Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ066-080-081-



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