Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230702

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
202 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Dry conditions are expected to continue today into tonight regardless
of an upper level shortwave lifting northeast across the Colorado
Rockies into the high plains of Northeast Colorado and western Nebraska.
Although ample moisture will advect into much of central Kansas within
a prevailing southerly flow, a deepening surface low and an attendant
dryline is projected to advance eastward through much of western Kansas
by this afternoon, setting up a westerly downslope flow across the
high plains. So regardless of an intensifying westerly flow aloft,
any chances for precip will be hindered across southwest and much
of central Kansas through late Friday night.

Well above normal temperatures are likely today as the ongoing
warming trend continues to finish out the week. A prevailing southerly
flow will become more west-southwesterly this afternoon as a dryline
pushes through southwest and into central Kansas. This will draw
much warmer air into the high plains with H85 temperatures climbing
into the lower to mid 20s(C). With any early morning cloud cover
expected to scatter out through the day, look for widespread 80s(F)
for highs this afternoon with the lower 90s(F) a distinct possibility
in some locations. A cold front will push through western Kansas
Friday night allowing cooler air to filter down into western Kansas.
Expect lows generally down into the 40s(F) Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Dry conditions will persist through the weekend as weak upper level
ridging moves out of the Central/Southern Rockies into the Central
Plains during the period. Although moderately strong westerlies
aloft will persist across the Western High Plains, a drier air
mass settled across the region will hinder precip chances through
late Sunday. A marginal chance for precip exists across central
Kansas Sunday night as an increasingly difluent southwest flow
aloft sets up across the Western High Plains while a southeasterly
upslope flow near the surface brings about a decent moisture
return into central Kansas. Based on GFS/ECMWF model soundings,
sufficient instability/shear will be present to support the
potential for shower/thunderstorm development across portions of
central and south central Kansas as the weekend comes to a close.
Precip chances return toward the middle part of the week as
troughing amplifies across the Intermountain West just as another
frontal boundary is projected to push through western Kansas.

A warming trend ends Saturday in response to a frontal passage
across western Kansas Friday night. Cooler air will spread southward
across the high plains, dropping H85 temperatures below 10C in
central Kansas by Saturday afternoon with the air mass remaining a
bit warmer in extreme southwest Kansas. Should see highs generally
in the 60s(F) in central Kansas with the lower to mid 70s(F) still
possible in far southwest Kansas. The cooler air mass will be slow
to erode across central Kansas Sunday as an easterly upslope flow
develops across the region as high pressure dominates in the Upper
Midwest. Highs may warm up a bit more in extreme southwest Kansas
dependent on how far a warm front advances northward by Sunday
afternoon. Much cooler temperatures return by Tuesday in wake of
yet another cold front pushing through western Kansas.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Predominately VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites
through early Friday evening. Light south to southeasterly winds
will persist overnight as a lee side trough of low pressure slowly
develops across eastern Colorado. Winds are expected to become
more southerly while increasing 15 to 25kt mid to late morning as
the surface low continues to strengthen in eastern Colorado, then
become more west- southwesterly 20 to 30kt mid to late afternoon
as the surface low and an associated dryline begin to advance
through western Kansas.


Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Based on short-fuse models, increasing confidence of a sharpening
dryline advancing across much of southwest Kansas by mid to late
afternoon allowing a west-southwest downslope flow to set up across
the area. Gusty winds are likely in conjunction with RH`s dropping
below 15 percent resulting in critical fire danger. Will expand
the current Red Flag Warning eastward to incorporate essentially
all of southwest Kansas. Outdoor burning is discouraged.


DDC  46  90  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  90  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  88  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  90  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  46  85  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
P28  50  90  49  70 /   0   0   0   0


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ043-061>063-074>078-084>088.

Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this
evening for KSZ080-089-090.



LONG TERM...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...JJohnson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.