Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 200738
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
238 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

06Z surface data has the cold front from central Lake Superior into
central Minnesota and then back west along the North and South
Dakota border. Dew points were in the 30s and 40s ahead of the front
with 20s behind the front.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

The wind advisory for today has been expanded. Additionally, the
start and end times have been pushed back by 1 hour to better
reflect the expected increase in winds.

A strong upper level disturbance will move through the area during
the day and drag another cold front through the Midwest.

Steep low level lapse rates will allow higher momentum air aloft to
mix down to the surface and create very windy conditions. Wind gusts
to 45 mph in the advisory area are expected and localized gusts to
50 mph cannot be ruled out.

Depending upon how the winds evolve during the day, a further
expansion of the wind advisory may be needed.

As colder air moves in aloft and day time heating occurs, diurnal
rain showers and sprinkles will develop mainly east of a line from
Independence, IA to LaSalle/Peru, IL. Mixed precipitation may
briefly occur with any of the stronger showers that develop late
this morning and early afternoon.

Temperatures will slowly fall during the afternoon after the passage
of the cold front.

Tonight, clear and cold conditions will be seen across the area as
high pressure moves through the Midwest. Overnight lows of 25 to 30
are expected with light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Long term highlights include below normal temperatures and little
chance of rain through late week.

After a chilly start Sunday, a southwest breeze will help boost
afternoon temperatures into the low 50s most areas, still below
normal for late October. This warming trend will continue into
Monday, ahead of the next front that is expected to move through the
forecast area with little fanfare.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cool and dry with a weak upper ridge
keeping rain at bay to the west. The most favored period for spotty
light rain, based on the various synoptic models, would be late
Thursday into Friday. If rain does occur, amounts will likely be
light and coverage limited. Below normal temperatures will persist
through late week with highs in the low 50s and overnight lows
mainly in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Main focus on refining timing of wind increase during the morning.
Expecting a NW wind gusting around 35 kts, strongest at
KCID/KDBQ/KMLI, before diminishing somewhat mid to late afternoon.
There is a low probability of a few showers clipping KDBQ
terminal after 16z. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM CDT this afternoon
     for Benton-Buchanan-Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Henry IA-
     Iowa-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Linn-Louisa-
     Muscatine-Scott-Washington.

IL...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM CDT this afternoon
     for Henry IL-Mercer-Rock Island.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...RP Kinney


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