Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 191912
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
212 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

The elevated showers and thunderstorms have now pushed east towards
northeast Illinois, with increasing temperatures, increasing
dewpoints, and increasing southeast winds behind them. It appears
that we will have sufficient CAPE and convergence for another round
of storms over the area this afternoon and evening. Shear will be
conducive for rotating updrafts, and bowing line segments.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

The evening storms should initially be lined up along the cold
front, though some additional overnight activity may be in narrow
bands of showers and storms.  Rainfall over 1 inch will certainly be
possible in any storm tonight, and any repeat storms certainly could
bring 2 inches. Amount similar to that already fell this morning.
Shear supports rotating storms with 20 to 25 kts of surface to 1 Km
shear, and 40 kts of deep layer shear. Thus, supercells are likely,
with bowing line segments in mature linear convection as well.
This event will likely come in two bands. The first seems to
already forming in out northwest, the other near I-35 as of 2 PM.
More an more, I believe that the first of these waves will be the
main evening event. We will watch this, and begin issuing products
specifically above this line soon.

Overnight, the activity should become less intense, though some
small hail will be possible as the cooler air aloft arrives
overnight when the upper low nears the area. That upper low should
at least support showers and a few brief storms through the day
Friday, mainly in the northeast.

Temperatures are a struggle, as we have hot air to the southwest,
and warmer air to the east, and rain cooled air in place, which is
slowly warming.  We`ll stay close to models on lows and highs, and
go with mid to upper 60s tonight, followed by mid 70s north to lower
80s south Friday.



.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Little change to the long term forecast as a slow moving vertically
stacked system will lumber east.  With cold air aloft over the area,
daytime heating could lead to showers and isolated thunderstorms,
especially across eastern areas.  This will continue until the low
finally moves east of the area.  Overall the pattern is such that
cooler and drier air is expected this weekend across most of the
area.  Sunday, the chance for isolated showers and storms will be
across Bureau and Putnam counties, otherwise the rest of the area
should be quiet.

Into next week, the current forecast has dewpoints returning to the
60s, but no 70 degree dewpoints.  While the air will become more
moist, from a sensible weather point of view it should be typical
summer with slighly drier air with temps in the 80s and lows in the
60s at night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Thunderstorms with IFR conditions will continue to move east
along and south of Interstate 80 in Illinois early this afternoon.
Additional storms are expected to develop and spread across all
of eastern Iowa this evening, in the 21Z to 02Z period, and into
Illinois after 00Z. Damaging winds are possible in this afternoon
and evening storm chance. Once they exit to the east, mainly dry
conditions can be expected overnight and Friday, with some
scattered very brief showers at times being the only weather
beyond northwest winds around 10 to 20 kts.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Ervin



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