Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 190214

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
814 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018


Evening Discussion...

Snow showers are continuing along the North Dakota border, and are
also rapidly filling into Phillips and Valley counties this
evening. Increased pops in those areas based on radar returns and
the latest near-term model output. Snow showers are still expected
to push slowly eastward throughout the overnight hours. Most of
northeast Montana should see half an inch or less of snow from
this tonight, but a few areas along the North Dakota border such
as Sidney and Glendive may see one to up to nearly three inches
through Monday.

Otherwise, the concerns remain the storm system moving through
later this week as described in the previous discussion, and
flooding concerns due to ice jamming and snowmelt. Flooding
concerns will be with us for the next few weeks, most likely.
Ice jamming and rapid river rises are occurring upstream on the
Musselshell River, so continued the Flood Watch for the
Musselshell River and its tributaries in Garfield and Petroleum
counties. Hickford

Previous Discussion...

As the snow from this morning finally erodes away from over
Phillips and northern Valley Counties, our immediate focus now
turns to our eastern CWA zones bordering North Dakota where new
snowfall is beginning. A few reports indicate that some of that
snow in and near Glendive is mixing with sleet here and there. Not
expecting that to be much of a problem. Should easily switch over
to all snow as the evening wears on.

Tonight through Monday, best model consensus suggests that 1 to 2
inches of snow is likely right up along our eastern border with
North Dakota - basically near and east of a line from Sidney to
through Wibaux. Lesser amounts are expected elsewhere and no
precipitation is expected over our SW zones. Some patchy morning
fog is also possible, but not in areas of snowfall.

Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon, the remnant low
pressure disturbance and subtle short-wave trough influence will
bring general cloudiness and a few passing light and scattered
snow showers of little impact if any.

Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon, a strong ridge of high
pressure will bring a dry and calm period of weather to our region
with most locations seeing daily high temperatures around 40
degrees. Would expect to see some decent melting of the snowpack
by Wednesday through Thursday.

Thursday night and beyond, the next storm system from the Pac NW
brings multiple periods of rain and snow showers to most of the
region. Models are beginning to converge around a decent amount
of precipitation with relatively good timing and placement
agreement. If the current temperatures forecast is accurate, this
Friday storm could bring another 2 to 4 inches of new snow for our
northern tier zones near Canada and our eastern tier zones near
North Dakota. Will need to keep an eye on this system for possible
greater impacts. For example, the GFS model is forecasting twice
as much precipitation as the other models. Official forecast from
us leans more on the lighter side for now, but may need to be
increased if the GFS persists in its wetter solution. BMickelson



SYNOPSIS: General unsettled weather is still in control over the
region. Low ceilings around 1000 feet and scattered snow showers
seem likely through Monday morning, especially for KSDY and KGDV.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: Mainly MVFR to IFR. But snowfall this evening
through Monday morning could easily keep the TAF sites temporarily
in LIFR or airport minimums. Expect amendments.

WIND: Mainly light and variable.

BMickelson / Hickford


Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Garfield...Petroleum.


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