Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 192345
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
545 PM MDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Fri Oct 19 2018

High pressure building up today will remain the story through
much of this weekend. Warm air advection from the southerly wind
continues ahead of a low pressure system off the coast of
California. As such, dry and slightly warmer conditions can be
expected again Saturday across the forecast area. High
temperatures are expected to be near normal with lows a few
degrees above normal ahead of the change coming next week.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Although models have been trending slightly slower, the cutoff
low pressure system in the eastern Pacific will move into the
Great Basin on Sunday evening bringing more unsettled weather to
our region. Moisture will move into the area starting late Sunday
with this system bringing in excess of 1/4 inch of water to the
highest peaks in the San Juans by Monday night. Due to the warmer
air, snow levels are expected to remain above 9,000 feet with
little in the way of accumulations (1-3 inches) restricted mainly
to the highest peaks of the San Juans and La Sal Mountains.
Convection also remains a good possibility given the warm nature
of this moist system during the day on Monday and Tuesday which
could slightly lower snow levels.

The low will be absorbed into the westerly flow Monday/Tuesday
and the trough will likely move east of our area on Wednesday...although
some uncertainty remains as to the trough`s departure time. It`s
possible that lower elevations could see a little better chance of
precipitation than the current forecast reflects but decided to
wait for higher confidence before including that in this forecast
package.

Another shortwave could potentially bring some more precipitation
to the area on Thursday behind the main trough. Nonetheless, it`s
possible that northern portions of Colorado will see increased
winds as the jet passes over toward the end of the forecast
period. The Euro and GFS are in agreement of bringing a tropical
cyclone toward western Mexico around the end of next week. With
ridging dominating the western CONUS, it`s looking like mositure
from that cyclone will remain in southern Texas but time will
tell.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Fri Oct 19 2018

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with a few
cumulus over some higher terrain sites through sunset before these
dissipate. Skies will remain clear tonight through Saturday with
fairly light terrain-driven winds.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BM/SS
LONG TERM...BM/SS
AVIATION...MDA


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