Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 180050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
750 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018


00Z AVIATION...No change to previous forecast.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018/

No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Surface
trof situated from off the upper Texas coast southward into the
Yucatan will slowly make its way closer to the Texas coastline.
Tightening gradient will lead to a strong convergent zone near
the coastline...especially Matagorda Bay southward. Deepening
Gulf moisture, with PW`s up to 2.4", may lead to localized heavy
rain but attm may be just south of our CWA so will hold off the
mention. Upper pattern doesn`t change all that much...with a ridge
situated to the east and trof to the west. This positions us in
the swly flow aloft with embedded impulses moving
overhead...generally north and west of the Highway 59 corridor. So
in general, better rain chances should be situated across both
northern and southern parts of the CWA - and less so in between.

A reinforcing cold front will make its way thru the area Saturday
bringing a break in the rain chances Sunday. As the high pressure
moves off to the east in the wake of the front, another coastal
trof will end up developing, moisture levels increase w/ a
corresponding increase in POPs. Remnants of a Pacific tropical
system may (or may not) aid in additional available moisture.
In summary, with the exception of maybe Sunday, appears like a
cloudy, cool and damp period is in store.  47

..Potential for Minor Coastal Flooding Tonight...
..Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the nearshore
and offshore waters until Thursday afternoon...

Minor coastal flooding will be possible tonight near the
intersection of Highway 87 at Highway 124 on the Bolivar
Peninsula. Additionally, moderate to strong northeast winds and
elevated seas will persist for the remainder of this week and into
the weekend. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten tonight
into tomorrow, and as a result Caution flags and/or Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect through Thursday afternoon. Winds will
turn easterly late Thursday into Friday. Coastal Flood Advisories
will be possible later this week for occasionally elevated water
levels at high tide. Another cold front is expected to move
through the area over the weekend which will keep winds and seas



College Station (CLL)      53  64  57  69  57 /  20  60  50  30  40
Houston (IAH)              59  70  61  75  62 /  20  20  20  30  40
Galveston (GLS)            64  72  70  79  70 /  20  30  30  50  50


     for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.



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