Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 141745
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1245 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable weather returns this afternoon and will last through
the weekend with only a brief cool down on Saturday. Low
pressure approaching from the Gulf will bring an increasing
chance of rain, and a warming trend through early next week. A
cold front will push through the area by mid week with drier
weather to follow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 AM Thursday...sunny skies today over out part of the
world with very dry conditions aloft with precipitable waters of
0.25 to 0.36 inches. At the surface the 24 hours dewpoint
change is around 12 degrees along the coast. The brisk winds
overnight will continue to weaken by the afternoon. With the
westerly flow high temperatures are expected to reach into the
60 -63 range this afternoon.

High pressure will build down behind cold front through tonight
with a light northerly flow reaching down into the Carolinas.
As winds drop off tonight, expect better radiational cooling
conditions with only a few clouds expected. This will produce a
cool night with temps dropping into the mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Some changes in the longwave pattern
aloft this period, with the question of whether it becomes
established for a time. The large amplitude upper trough
affecting the FA at the start of this week, has mellowed out by
the time this period commences. Models indicate active northern
and southern branches of the jet stream that will meet overhead
across the FA at the start of this period but then models have
the northern stream retreat back to the Mid-Atlantic states and
the NE States by the end of this period. This leaves the
southern branch of the jetstream to expand northward.

At the sfc, models indicate a stalled front well south and east of
the FA at the start of this period. A s/w mid-level flow
tracking east-southeast will develop a sfc low just off the
Carolina Coasts early Fri along with it`s associated frontal
system. The sfc low will accelerate northeast away from the FA
Fri aftn and night. Progged Sounding moisture profiles indicate
some mid and upper level moisture however, the low levels remain
dry. As a result, will continue with no pcpn.

In it`s wake, clearing skies with CAA occurring across the FA thru
early Sat before becoming Neutral. This will just re- enforce the
cold air across the FA from the recent CFP prior to this period.
Thus, temperatures for both days will near the seasonable norms for
this time period with mins at or just below the norms and the maxes
at or just above the norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...Expect a warming trend into early next
week, as ridging aloft ensues. GFS and ECMWF differ on timing
and strength of ejected Baja short-wave Sunday, but both agree
on a milder and wetter pattern after the weekend. The first
chance of rain by Sunday night, as this features ejects offshore
early Monday. Despite ECMWF/GFS differences, a milder and wetter
pattern is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 18Z...High confidence of VFR through 15/18Z. With just a few-
sct cirrus to the S this afternoon, surface winds will be SW-WSW 5-
10 kt. 22-23Z a low level inversion will develop decreasing winds to
variable 0-3 kt, although winds could continue @KMYR at times this
evening and overnight from the SW aob 4 kt. A cold front will cross
KLBT this evening, and move to near a KFLO/KILM line overnight.
Winds with the front should remain aob 4 kt. Mid/high level clouds
expected along the front with cigs above 10k at times @ KLBT
overnight.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Possible MVFR Monday associated with a low
pressure system moving across the Southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...The seas and winds have diminished
enough to drop the small craft south of Little River Inlet.
Frying Pan Shoals was still reporting seas of 6.9 feet so will
continue small craft north of Little River through 4 PM.

The seas will subside in this weakening off shore flow down to
2 to 4 ft by this evening north of Little River and will
continue to gradually decreasing through tonight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Friday thru Friday night will be the more
active time period for winds and significant seas due to sfc low
development just offshore that deepens as it accelerates northeast
away from the local waters Fri night. Looking at SW-W winds
increasing during Fri to SCEC levels, then veering to the NW-NNW at
SCEC levels Fri night as the sfc low accelerates away.
For Sat thru Sat night, no caution or advisories expected. Winds
will drop to 10 kt or less during Sat aftn and to around 5 kt Sat
night as the center of sfc high pressure moves overhead.
Significant seas will maximize at 3 to 5 ft Fri aftn and evening
followed by a subsiding trend for the remainder of this period to
less than 2 ft. Wind driven waves will dominate Fri thru daytime Sat
with periods at 4 to 5 seconds. An easterly 1 foot ground swell at 9
to 10 second periods will dominate toward the end of this period as
wind induced waves subside.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...A manageable marine period. No
advisories are expected as weak high pressure moves farther
offshore on Sunday. SW-W winds expected Monday as high pressure
settles offshore and SE of the waters.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...MRR



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