Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 181406
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1006 AM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio
Valley today will move east tonight. Southerly flow will then
bring in a more moist flow at the surface through the weekend.
An upper level low will track from the Upper Midwest on Friday
and reach western Ohio Saturday, with showers and thunderstorms
expected through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure will allow for dry conditions today. Some cu are
expected to develop today. Went close to guidance to high
temperatures today with highs in the low to middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The dry air in place combined with clear skies and light winds
will make tonight the coolest night of the forecast with lows
within a few degrees of 60. The dry air will permit Thursdays
highs to reach the mid to upper 80s under a continued generally
sunny sky.

Overnight will see increasing cloud cover from the west as the
upper level ridge breaks down and a shortwave noses into the
OH/IN border by daybreak Friday. A slight chance of
thunderstorms will accompany this initial shortwave, but likely
wait until daylight hours of Friday. Overnight lows will be
milder - in the mid to upper 60s given the increased moisture
and encroaching higher cloud cover overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will be heightened beginning
Friday and lasting through at least Sunday as the upper level
low meanders towards and then stalls over Ohio.

SPC outlook for day 3 has strong CAPE/Shear environment
southwest of the forecast area that will be favorable for
supercell development that will likely nose towards the Cincy
metro area in the late day. Likewise, Saturday and Sunday will
be found underneath a stacked upper low, which could result in a
weak tornado threat given a deep layer of spin. This severe
threat for Friday onwards will be determined in future
forecasts.

A surface front will cross the region late Sunday, but timing
is in high question with this feature. Regardless, a decrease in
coverage is expected beginning Sunday night as the upper level
trough (evolved from the cutoff low) crosses east of the
forecast area towards western PA.

Temperatures through this part of the forecast will be muted,
with daytime highs in the mid 80s Friday dropping to around 80
degrees Saturday through Monday and rising slightly Tuesday.
Overnight lows will be in the middle 60s through the period.

Thunderstorms will likely lose their punch and evolve into a
more showery pattern with embedded thunder by the end of the
weekend, but did not make this distinction in the forecast given
it is day 5 and thunder will remain a high probability given the
stacked low in place.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Little change to the previous set of tafs as high pressure
centered to the north of the region will keep the tafs VFR.
Winds will generally be from the north to northeast today and
they will be light.

Diurnal cumulus will begin to develop around 15Z at a height
around 5kft. Much like this morning, expect some scattered high
based cu or low ac to affect the tafs tonight. Winds will remain
light and will shift a little more easterly by Thursday morning.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times from Friday through
Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Sites


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