Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 161305
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
905 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry conditions will remain in place across
the region through Thursday. A chance of showers will be possible
Friday into Friday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio
Valley. Temperatures will remain below normal through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Freeze warning and frost advisory have been canceled as
temperatures slowly rise into the 40s.

Elongated surface high pressure will build eastward along the
Ohio River through this afternoon. This will allow for a fair
amount of sunshine through high clouds this afternoon with
highs mainly in the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to build eastward across the
region tonight into Wednesday. It looks like the gradient will
stay up enough tonight to help keep winds up at least somewhat.
This should help keep lows in mainly the upper 30s tonight and
limit frost development.

In north to northwesterly low level flow around the high, some
850 mb moisture is forecast to work down across at least far
northern/northeast portions of our area through Wednesday
afternoon. This could lead a bit of an increase in clouds
across our north, with mostly sunny skies still expected in the
south. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be building into the region for the start
of the long term period, yielding perhaps the coldest night of the
season thus far into the early morning hours on Thursday. With
clearing skies and light to calm winds, anticipate that lows will
drop into the lower 30s, with some upper 20s not completely out of
the question in parts of west-central and central Ohio. This setup
will be very conducive to frost development -- perhaps the best
setup of the season thus far for widespread frost in parts of the
area.

After the frosty start to the morning Thursday, clear skies will
allow for temperatures to top out in the low and mid 50s as the
surface high pushes east of the Ohio Valley. By Thursday night into
Friday, surface flow will begin to become more southerly as the
next system approaches the region. A cold front is fcst to push
through the area Friday evening, with the chance for scattered rain
showers during the day -- particularly near and south of the Ohio
River where moisture return will be a bit more prominent.

Aloft, deep and highly-amplified troughing will dig into the eastern
Great Lakes region into the interior northeast this upcoming
weekend. This will set the stage for a reinforcing shot of chilly
temperatures for the Ohio Valley, with breezy conditions ushering in
some cool air on Saturday. With northwest flow in the lower part of
the atmosphere, as well as embedded disturbances rotating/pivoting
around the broader-scale troughing, the local area/s weather will
feel some influence from the lakes -- particularly Lake Michigan.
Expect that with sufficient fetch off the lake, clouds and even the
chance for a few flurries may stick around early Saturday night once
surface temperatures cool enough. Late in the overnight period,
however, surface high pressure builds back in and the flow becomes a
little less favorable for a flurry setup. Any flurry activity,
should it reach the ILN FA, would be favored in parts of west-
central Ohio into central Ohio early Saturday night.

Surface high pressure builds back in Sunday into Sunday night as the
core of the cold air aloft begins to be shunted east of the region.
However, with mainly clear skies and light/calm winds Sunday night,
another freeze setup may evolve for northern parts of the local
area. However, winds will likely begin to pick up late in the night
towards sunrise Monday, perhaps throwing a fly in the ointment for
radiational cooling potential.

Another S/W rounding the broader scale troughing centered in the
eastern U.S. will likely approach the area late Monday, the
specifics of which will come into better focus in future fcst
cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cirrus is continuing to stream northeast across the region and
this will likely continue through the rest of this morning and
possibly into this afternoon. With high pressure building into
the area though, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday
afternoon and night with MVFR ceilings possibly lingering into
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JGL


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