Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 161141
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
641 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper ridge and surface high pressure over the southeastern
states will bring dry conditions and above normal temperatures
to the region today.

A storm system will lift northeast on Sunday, bringing a chance
of rain to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Area of cold advection stratocu that has been affecting the fa,
is trying to shift to the east, however, H5 nw flow is bringing
altocu down over top of it. Models are indicating that by 12Z
this morning, the mid-level moisture will be moving east of the
fa. This is in response to a surface high working through the
southeastern states. At the same time, H5 ridging will be moving
up the Ohio Valley. Sunshine will combine with warm advection
to push temperatures into the 40s. Expect highs around 40 in
the north and the upper 40s in nrn KY. H8 jet will bring wind
gusts of 15-25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level ridge will keep the region dry tonight, with temperatures
dropping back into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

On Sunday, a H5 s/w will eject northeast out of the southern
plains towards the region. Low level moisture will increase
across the region ahead of the system. With the s/w weakening as
it comes north, pcpn will not be heavy, but coverage should be
enuf for likely PoPs across a majority of the region. The rain
will keep temperatures down a little on Sunday, with highs only
ranging from 40 to 45 degrees.

Precipitation coverage will be decreasing by late Monday as the
s/w passes east. Lingering low level moisture and weak lift in
zonal flow will keep a slight chance of showers over the region
Sunday night and Monday. Expect highs on Monday from the mid
40s over the extreme north to the lower 50s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shortwave tracking through the Great Lakes and weak front will
provide a slight chance of a shower Tuesday. Above normal
temperatures to continue Tuesday with highs ranging from the the
upper 40s north to the lower 50s south.

Model solutions diverge at mid week but will follow continuity and
keep forecast dry Wednesday with surface high pressure building into
the region. Temperatures close to normal next Wednesday with highs
from the upper 30s north to the mid/upper 40s south.

Models differ on handling next surface low which tracks through the
area at the end of the week in split flow regime. Will hold off pcpn
until late Thursday afternoon and then increase pops Thursday night
with approach of surface front. On the warm side of this system
expect Thursdays highs from the upper 40s northeast to the mid 50s
southwest.

Pcpn to diminish from nw to se late Friday into Friday night in the
wake of the front. Pcpn may mix with or change to snow prior to
ending. Highs to range from lower 40s nw to the lower 50s se
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will be present through the forecast period.
A 10kft deck will break up this morning as it moves e, with the
back edge working sw-ne and out of the picture by noon. Winds
will see some gusts to 20-22kt from late morning to early
afternoon as the surface gradient tightens and then slack after
about 20-21z.

Generally clear skies will be found overnight with cirrus
clouds working in from the southwest before daybreak.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Franks


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