Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 250526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
126 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018

High pressure will extend into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
Sunday into Sunday night. Although warmer temperatures will
return for the upcoming week, moisture will increase as well.
This will bring a period of wet weather as we head through the


The precipitation continues to come to an end over the region
this evening. One final area lingers in se IN, but it should
dissipate shortly. Don`t expect any additional accumulations.
Therefore have taken the winter headlines down.

The system will pull away to the southeast, allowing high
pressure to build in. Clouds will eventually decrease from
north to south after midnight. Winds will remain from the east
northeast, between 10 and 15 mph with some gusts.

Lows will drop to the lower 20s in the north and the upper 20s
around the Ohio River.


High pressure centered over northeast Canada will extend
southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday. Mainly
sunny skies are expected. Despite plentiful sunshine, temperatures
will remain chilly for late March. In addition, stiff
east/northeast winds will continue with gusts between 20 and 25
knots. This will make it feel a little colder. Highs will range
from the lower 40s north to the mid/upper 40s south.

For Sunday night, as the low level flow around the high veers to
the east/southeast, low level moisture in the form of clouds
will increase from the south/southeast to the north/northwest
overnight. These clouds will mainly effect southern and
southwestern areas. With some clouds and wind, temperatures will
be somewhat non diurnal. Lows will range from the upper 20s
north to the mid 30s southwest.


No sweeping changes were made to the forecast this afternoon. Broad
pattern shows return/warming flow setting up on Monday as high
pressure moves east of the region. A weakening surface low in the
Plains will track towards the Upper Midwest on Monday. Moisture on
southerly winds will increase in the Ohio Valley, and the H5 ridge
in place will move east in favor of zonal sw flow by Monday night.
This zonal flow will permit embedded disturbances to swing northeast
through the region and wring out showers overnight and into Tuesday.
This will be more noticeable in the northwest and have a lesser
chance of occurrence in the southeast.

Tuesday will see a cold front approach the region from the
northwest, with showers becoming more likely ahead of it given a
continued stream of moisture through the lower atmosphere.
Currently, models have this front passing east over the region on
Wednesday. While the front moves east late in the week, a broad
digging upper level trough in the central U.S. will continue to
permit disturbances to continue a threat for showers over the area
for the remainder of the period, though it should not be by any
means a rainy period, just an increased chance.

Temperatures will be at or just below climatological normals for the
period. They will gradually rise through mid-week, possibly nosing
to just above normal on Wednesday, and then drop towards the end of
the week. Models diverge significantly beyond Thursday with a
corresponding decrease in forecast confidence.


VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Generally
expect mid and high clouds at times through the TAF period.
Cannot rule out a few cu on Sunday, however due to the isolated
nature decided to leave out of the TAFs at this time. Winds will
remain up through the overnight hours. Gusts will be isolated
during the overnight hours, however during the day on Sunday
expect wind gusts to pick up again.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Monday through Thursday.




SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Novak is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.