Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 220446
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1146 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Skies are clear across the area and southerly winds range from
5-15 mph. Satellite loop shows some high cirrus moving toward the
area but seems very scattered at the moment. Dewpoints are in the
20s so still think temps will fall little more this evening and
then probably steady out late tonight before beginning to go back
up tomorrow morning. No need to make a adjustment for overnight
temps but temps tomorrow could be warmer than what we have in the
forecast. With the dryness on the sfc, temps could probably get
little warmer, like they did this afternoon. So will be adjusting
forecast this evening, but for afternoon temps tomorrow. Update
coming soon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

High pressure has shifted into the Ohio River Valley this
afternoon, allowing a southwesterly return flow to develop across
central Illinois. Thanks to continued southerly winds tonight, low
temperatures will be considerably warmer than they were last
night...with readings ranging from the lower 30s south of I-70 in
closer proximity to the ridge axis...to around 40 degrees
along/west of I-55. A weak cold front will sink southward into
central Illinois on Monday: however, with little to no moisture
for the boundary to work with, only an increase in high/thin
cloudiness will be noted. W/SW winds ahead of the front will boost
high temperatures into the lower to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Once the front passes, a cool/dry airmass will return on Tuesday
when highs drop back into the 50s. After that, quiet conditions
will persist for the remainder of the week before a significant
upper trough digs into the Midwest by next weekend. Model
solutions naturally vary that far out, but it appears rain chances
will increase late Friday night into Saturday ahead of the wave.
Temperatures will remain in the 50s through the extended, but
may drop into the 40s if rain showers materialize as expected next
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies are
currently clear, but scattered high cirrus will move into the area
and effect the TAFs early morning through early afternoon. Then
clear skies expected again tomorrow evening. Winds will be
southwest overnight and through the morning hours. Then winds will
become westerly during the afternoon hours as a trough moves
through the area. Winds should become lighter tomorrow evening.
Tonight, low level wind shear will be possible around 2kft with
40-45kts out of the west...ahead of the trough.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Auten


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