Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200411 AAB
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1111 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

A split flow regime remained across the US and Canada this
morning. the northern stream extended from the Gulf of Alaska into
the Yukon, then southeast into western Ontario and east to the
Canadian Maritimes. The southern stream extended from Baja
California into the mid Mississippi valley and the northern Great
Lakes. High pressure was located on the Oregon coast with a ridge
extending north into the Yukon and western portions of the NW
Territories of Canada. South of the High, low pressure was located
off the coast of southern California with a trough extending east
northeast into eastern South Dakota. High pressure was located
over the Bahamas with a low amplitude ridge noted across the deep
south. At the surface: A trough of low pressure extended from
central Minnesota into central Kansas. A cold front extended from
central Minnesota into South Dakota and southern Montana. Skies
were clear this afternoon across the forecast area with gusty
northerly winds across the forecast area. As of 2 PM CDT...winds
were gusting up to 30 MPH at Broken Bow and O`Neill and
temperatures ranged from 62 degrees at Ainsworth and Gordon to 69
degrees at North Platte.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Temperatures will be the main forecast challenge over the next 24
hours. A back door cold front will push into eastern Nebraska
this evening, followed by a reinforcing shot of arctic air
Saturday morning. With the cold air advection overnight, winds
will not totally decouple tonight in the eastern forecast area.
This will lead to fairly mild lows in the upper 30s. Across the
west, lows will bottom out in the middle 30s, with some lower 30s
possible in the Platte River Valley where light westerly winds set
up overnight. For Saturday: Winds will start out gusty from the
north, as weak cold air advection continues in the eastern
forecast area. Elsewhere, winds will be fairly light by afternoon
as weak warm air advection begins to commence in the west. With a
large H85 temp gradient noted across the forecast area Saturday
afternoon, highs will vary widely with readings around 50 in the
northeast, to the middle to upper 60s in the southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Northwest flow over the Plains flattens as the upper trough moves
off the East Coast, but a new trough digs into the Intermountain
West. A low then attempts to close off within the embedded trough as
it crosses the northern Plains and Upper Midwest the middle of next
week. At the surface, the main features include a cold front passage
late Sunday, a brief visit from a high pressure early next week, and
a deeper surface low associated with the upper low/trough.

Sunday and Monday... Increased max temps toward the warm end of
guidance Sunday ahead of the cold front. Model solutions are in
general agreement with a rather stout H85 thermal ridge riding the
High Plains, pushing temps above 15C. Abundant dry air in the low
and mid levels will result in a dry fropa, as well as mainly clear
skies. Combined with efficient mixing and some downslope flow in the
afternoon, highs shouldn`t have a problem reaching the lower to mid
70s (now about 10 degrees above normal). A surface high pressure
settles onto the Plains in the wake of the cold front on Monday. CAA
pushes H85 temps below 8C before return flow slowly kicks in. Highs
return to near normal values under continued fair skies.

Tuesday and beyond... Precip chances increase invof the upper trough
(and possible closed low) and next front. Increased PoP to likely
across SW Neb where the greatest mid-level isentropic upglide and
surface moisture convergence occur. Overall cloudiness and a cold
pool aloft will result in seasonably cool temperatures in the 50s.
The concern for wintry precip is low attm as overnight lows remain
at or above 37F.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Pacific high pressure across the northern Rockies and high
pressure across Canada will build through the central and northern
Plains. VFR is expected throughout western and north central
Nebraska tonight, Saturday and Saturday evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...CDC


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