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000
FXUS63 KLBF 191948
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
248 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Tonight and Friday.

Still some uncertainty in the potential development of fog
overnight.  The latest guidance has largely came in with lesser
wind, now suggesting light southeast winds or calm, though lesser
moisture seems available as the models have largely scoured the
lower levels moreso than previously suggested.  The MET/MAV and SREF
show little in the way of reduced visibility, so will continue to
leave fog out of the forecast, but monitor.  Otherwise weak high
pressure to our northeast will provide for seasonal overnight lows.
Guidance suggests low to mid 60s for most locations, but some upper
50s appear possible for our northwestern zones, mainly Sheridan and
western Cherry Counties.

It should be noted that the 12z HREF and GFS indicate some
convection along a perceived mid-level fgen band this evening.  The
area of concern is generally from our portion of the Pine Ridge
southeast across the central Sandhills into southeastern Custer
County.   Very little in the way of cumulus is shown on the latest
Satellite.  This combined with the recent convective performance of
the GFS yields low confidence in the formation of any storm.  Will
monitor and update if necessary.

Near seasonal highs are anticipated Friday afternoon, though our
eastern zones will be under the influence of easterly lower
tropospheric flow, which will keep temperatures slightly below
average.  Again some solutions, this time namely the NAM, show
convection operating on a mid-level fgen band.  Will introduce
slight chances across our southeast in line with GID as some
easterly upglide is shown in most models.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Friday night and beyond.  Will see a transition from easterly to
southerly low level flow for this weekend with high pressure
building southeast into the southern plains.  Some upslope flow
targeting our west will promote thunderstorm development Saturday
afternoon and evening with additional chances Sunday along a frontal
passage. Highs this weekend will range from the 80s across our east,
to the lower 90s over the west.  The H5 ridge to our west will
flatten and transition to quasi-zonal for the region.  The pattern
will usher a series of waves east across the northern Rockies and
Plains. Periodic precipitation chances to continue into mid-next
week, through timing on the storms may be tricky this far out.  The
greatest forcing is well north of the forecast area, though a
frontal boundary will be within the region. There are times where
the models indicate good moisture and instability in place for
strong storms with the potential of heavy rainfall, but again timing
and location is difficult at this juncture.  Otherwise the unsettled
pattern with northwest flow or quasi-zonal flow will set the stage
for near or below normal temperatures well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours as high pressure
builds across the region. Light northerly winds and mostly clear
skies will persist through Friday morning. There is an isolated
chance for some patchy fog early Friday morning mainly across KLBF.
Confidence is not high enough at this time to put it in the
forecast. Will continue to monitor this over the next several
hours.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jacobs
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Kulik