099
FXUS63 KLBF 150813
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures are expected today for most of the forecast
  area with readings in the 90s. Some middle to upper 80s are
  expected over northwestern Nebraska.

- A good chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night across the area
  as a cold front passes through the area. An enhanced risk
  (level 3 of 5) exists across a large portion of the forecast
  area. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
  thunderstorms across the southern half of the forecast area
  Wednesday.

- Much cooler Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 60s and
  70s Wednesday, with readings in the 70s Thursday. Temperatures
  will trend back toward more seasonal normals Friday into the
  weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

H5 analysis tonight had broad westerly flow across the
northern third of the CONUS. Within this flow, a decent shortwave
trough was located over southern British Columbia with embedded
shortwaves noted over North Dakota into northern Minnesota. Further
south, a shortwave trough was present across far western Nebraska
and eastern Wyoming. Flow across the southern CONUS was disorganized
tonight with weak high pressure over the desert southwest and
another weak high over the lower Mississippi Valley. The shortwaves
over North Dakota and the high plains of eastern Wyoming, had led to
showers and thunderstorms earlier tonight. Across western Nebraska,
the bulk of this activity has dissipated overnight while activity
persisted over the Dakotas. At the surface tonight, a frontal
boundary extended from northwestern South Dakota, east into far
southeastern North Dakota. A weak surface trough extended from
eastern Wyoming, south along the front range of Colorado. Overnight,
skies were generally cloudy as a shroud of high level cloudiness
from decaying thunderstorms was present across western and north
central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 2 AM CDT, ranged from 66
degrees at Broken Bow to 75 degrees at O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The shortwave trough over British Columbia, will move southeast
into northwestern Montana today. This feature will force a cold
front into northwestern Nebraska by mid afternoon. Temperatures
today will range from the middle 80s INVOF the front in the
northwest, to upper 90s over southwestern Nebraska. The front
will accelerate south late this afternoon into the evening hours
as the upstream shortwave trough traverses Montana. South of
the front, southerly winds and strong low level warm air
advection will push SB capes north of 3500J/KG this afternoon
along and east of highway 83. West of this line, SB CAPES will
range from 1500 to 2500 J/KG. As the front approaches the
Sandhills late this afternoon, and with a weak cap in place,
thunderstorms will develop INVOF the front during the 4 PM to 6
PM time frame. Deep layer shear will be somewhat meager
initially, but will increase into the evening hours as mid level
westerlies increase. Steep lapse rates and abundant DCAPE, will
support strong winds, which may be enhanced by increasing mid
level winds into the evening hours. Feel at this point, given
the steep mid level lapse rates, a large hail threat will be the
initial severe mode, with a transition to a linear wind threat
mid to late evening as mid level winds increase. The threat for
thunderstorms will move east of the area by late evening,
however there will be a limited threat for post frontal showers,
particularly in the west as decaying convection over Wyoming
drifts east. Much cooler readings will settle in across the
forecast area on Wednesday behind the front. The latest NBM
guidance for North Platte has 25th and 75th percentile highs
ranging from 73 to 82. Decided to utilize the 25th percentile
highs as it better reflects the MAV and MET guidance which is 72
and 65 respectively. FWIW, the record low maximum temp for
North Platte tomorrow is 65. North of the front, northeasterly
winds and weak lift may lead to a continued threat for showers
Wednesday, albeit the threat for decent amounts of precipitation
appears low.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Cool surface high pressure will build south into the eastern
Dakotas and eastern Nebraska Thursday. Winds will start the day
from the east with a gradual shift to southeast late in the day.
H85 temps across the area will range from 11c to 14c Thursday
afternoon which will equate to highs in the lower to middle 70s.
With the high anchored over eastern Nebraska and with a warm
front, well west of the forecast area, the threat for
precipitation Thursday and Thursday night will be minimal. A
warm front will lift east Friday, moderating temps back into the
80s. The combination of warmer temperatures and persistent low
amplitude westerly flow, will lead to an increased threat for
thunderstorms Friday night through Monday. Highs will be in the
80s for Saturday and Sunday with readings reaching the 90s on
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions will remain in place through Tuesday afternoon.
Increasing clouds are expected by mid to late afternoon in advance
of the next thunderstorm potential. While location and timing still
has some uncertainty, anticipate thunderstorms to develop by late
afternoon across the Sandhills. Impacts to both terminals should be
expected through mid-evening before storms push to the southeast.
Across northern Nebraska, some lingering showers are possible
through at least 06Z Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Kulik