Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 240844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
344 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018


No issues of significance in the short term as high pressure over
the eastern Gulf remains in place. The high is expected to begin
to shift to the east, over the Atlantic Ocean over the weekend,
which will allow for a slight increase in moisture by Sunday,
albeit not enough to allow for any mentionable rain chances at
this point. By Monday, a weak frontal boundary will move into the
area, increasing rain chances Monday and into Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s during
the day and in the mid 60s overnight through the weekend.


The next system to affect our weather will approach on Wednesday
with a stronger front expected. By Thursday, rain chances will
increase significantly with a chance of some stronger storms
accompanied by heavy rainfall. Current trends show the vertical
wind profile will be sufficient for stronger storms to develop,
however limited CAPE and the overall lack of thermodynamic support
may be an inhibiting factor. Of course, we have several days to



VFR conditions will prevail at most of the terminals through 06z
tomorrow. However, a period of MVFR and fuel alternate ceilings
could develop at KMCB around 12z this morning as an elevated
inversion forms. After 06z, tomorrow a low level temperature
inversion should develop resulting in the boundary layer decoupling
from stronger winds aloft.  This will allow for low ceilings and fog
to develop between 06z and 12z at all of the terminals.  A mix of
IFR and MVFR ceiling and visibility restrictions could occur.



An increasingly tighter pressure gradient over the northern Gulf of
Mexico and coastal waters will result in stronger onshore flow
developing by the first half of next week.  This increase in the
pressure gradient will be driven by the interaction between a
persistent ridge of high pressure over Southeast and a deepening
area of low pressure in the Southern Plains.  Small Craft Advisory
conditions will likely be in place by Tuesday and persist through
Thursday as onshore flow over the open Gulf waters increases to
around 20 knots and the combination of wind waves and swell pushes
seas to 7 to 9 feet.  The onshore flow could also result in above
normal tide levels and some minor coastal flooding issues on south
facing shores by the middle of next week.



DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Monitoring river flooding

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
         tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

MCB  81  64  80  62 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  80  65  82  63 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  80  64  80  63 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  80  66  80  65 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  76  65  77  64 /   0  10   0  10
PQL  77  65  78  63 /   0  10  10  10




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