Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 172056
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
256 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday

12Z Subjective surface and upper air analysis showed an upper
level shortwave trough over the northern Rockies, with another
downstream over the KS/MO/NE/IA borders. At the surface an area of
low pressure was evident near Childress, TX along the southern
high plains. To the southwest of this low, a strong cold front was
moving quickly to the south along the TX/NM border. To the
northeast of the surface low, the cold front was moving southeast,
but at a much slower clip. As of 20Z, the front was located near
Oklahoma City, extending back to the northeast over far southeast
Kansas.

Tonight...The northern Rockies upper trough is expected to move
southeast while shearing out longitudinally as it moves over the
Central Plains and then continues southeast towards Arkansas. The
shearing of the upper trough will result in weaker large scale
forcing for ascent over Arkansas tomorrow, but it will be
sufficient to bring the cold front across the state. Between the
weak upper level forcing for ascent and the frontogenetic forcing
associated with the front, expect that scattered to numerous light
rain showers will accompany and follow in behind the front as it
moves across the state on Sunday. Due to the weak nature of the
forcing and lack of any significant differential temperature
advection, rainfall intensity will remain light in nature and only
a half inch of rainfall is expected...despite the fact that rain
will be an on and off threat for much of the day.

Sunday night and Monday...Dry air advection and large scale
forcing for subsidence will result in a cooler but much drier day
across the Natural State on Monday. Highs on Monday will actually
be a few degrees warmer than on Sunday, behind the cold front. The
drier air behind the front is expected to allow for plentiful
sunshine which should outweigh the weak cold air advection and
allow temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 50s for most
locations.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

Ridging across the Western US and broad troughing across the
midwest and eastern US will produce strong westerly flow aloft
over the state. An embedded upper level low across the southern
Pacific region of the US will weaken as it advances eastward
through mid week.

Weak surface winds will be prevalent Monday night through
Wednesday as surface high pressure moves eastward and settles
into the region. This will provide tranquil weather for the
state.

The aforementioned weakening upper level low will pass across the
southern portions of the state as a shortwave trough on Thursday
morning. This wave could generate precipitation, however at this
time continue to anticipate the better forcing and moisture to
remain south of the state. In the meantime, a stronger secondary
shortwave trough will develop across the Western US and move
eastward. This feature will likely lead to widespread chances for
rain on Friday.

Towards the end of the period, another upper level system could
impact the area, however confidence is quite low as the ECMWF and
GFS vary greatly. Therefore, included slight chances for rain on
Saturday.

Expect temperatures to warm slightly through the end of the period,
with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     45  50  38  52 /   0  90  80  10
Camden AR         47  60  44  56 /   0  50  10  10
Harrison AR       41  41  33  48 /   0  70  10   0
Hot Springs AR    47  54  40  53 /   0  60  10  10
Little Rock   AR  47  56  42  54 /   0  80  50  10
Monticello AR     47  63  46  55 /   0  30  30  10
Mount Ida AR      48  52  37  53 /  10  60  10  10
Mountain Home AR  42  43  34  48 /   0  90  30   0
Newport AR        45  51  39  51 /   0  70  90  10
Pine Bluff AR     47  59  44  54 /   0  60  50  10
Russellville AR   47  51  40  53 /   0  60  10   0
Searcy AR         43  53  41  52 /   0  90  80  10
Stuttgart AR      46  58  43  54 /   0  50  60  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...CAVANAUGH / Long Term...CROSS


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