Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 182333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
633 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018


Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion.



VFR expected through around 19/09Z, after which MVFR BR should
begin to develop at most terminals. Confidence in IFR or worse vis
restrictions is low, but would not be surprised to see at least
spotty IFR near dawn. SHRA push in from the west after 09/18Z and
TS will be possible, but again, confidence is low attm.
Additionally, cigs will gradually thicken and lower through the
last half of the period with more widespread SHRA/TSRA developing
just beyond the end of the period.



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday Night

Current VIS and IR imagery indicate a weak diffused frontal
boundary draped across south central Arkansas. This boundary can
be seen extending from West Texas up into the New England region.
Across the Northern Plains, a surface and upper low pressure was
situated near the MT/WY border. LZK radar indicates showers and
thunderstorms weakening and moving into Mississippi. By early
afternoon, temperatures on the north side of the boundary were in
the mid 80s with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
South of the boundary, temperatures were in the mid 80s to mid 90s
with dew points generally in the mid 70s. Ample cloud cover was
located over central AR while partly cloudy skies were seen

Synoptically aloft, a ridge of high pressure was located across
the Desert Southwest. Near the Great Lakes, a trough extended
southward into the Tennessee Valley. Between these systems,
northwesterly flow continued to advect embedded impulses through
the mean flow. This upper flow regime is responsible for the
unsettled weather pattern that has persisted over the last week
or two. A secondary deepening upper trough was near the MT/WY
border. This secondary trough will become the next big weather

At the surface, the aforementioned frontal boundary draped across
Arkansas will begin to lift northward through the evening on
Saturday into Sunday. The boundary will be the primary focus for
showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening into Monday. By Monday
morning, the surface low ejects out of the Northern Plains into
MO/KS area. A trailing cold front will develop with this low and
begin to push into the state on Monday. Abundant moisture will be
in place across the state as well as warm temperatures. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
cold front. Some storms may reach severe limits with gusty winds
as the main threat at this point.

Drier and cooler conditions should return on Tuesday behind the
front as the low progresses eastward. Temperatures will be in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s for lows and mid 80s to mid 90s for


LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

Low pressure will be over the Midwest to begin the period with an
upper ridge over the southwest U.S. The upper low moves northeast
Tuesday through the Great Lakes. Northwest flow then returns to
Arkansas and continues through the end of the period.

A cold front will move through the state early Tuesday with showers
and thunderstorms. High pressure then moves into the area Wednesday
with slightly cooler and drier air. Tuesday night and Wednesday
should be dry. Rain chances will return Wednesday through Saturday
over mainly the western half of Arkansas. High temperatures will
mainly be in the 80s with a few 90s in the south.



.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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