Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 180201
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
901 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.UPDATE...The forecast is on track for tonight and Thursday.


&&

.MARINE...A Gale Warning is in effect Thursday afternoon and
evening for the north half of Lake MI. Swly gales and high waves
will develop during this period due to a tight pressure gradient
between high pressure over the Ohio River Valley and low pressure
moving across Canada. The winds may briefly ease below gales late
Thu nt before becoming swly gales again during the daylight hours
on Fri. Thus the Gale Warning may need to be extended or a Gale
Watch may be needed for Fri. Gales will also be possible over the
south half of the lake on Fri.

Over the nearshore waters of se WI, a prolonged period of breezy
winds is forecast from Thu nt-Sat. Breezy swly winds will prevail
Thu nt-Fri becoming nwly Fri nt-Sat. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed during this period. High waves will be prevalent
over the open waters of Lake MI.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 621 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018)

UPDATE...A sfc ridge over the Upper MS River Valley will shift
across srn WI late nt and extend across the Ohio River Valley by
Thu eve. Thus winds will decouple this evening with low temps in
the upper 20s to lower 30s by sunrise Thu. Swly winds and warm
advection will develop for Thu with high temps in the middle to
upper 50s.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...VFR conditions tnt-Thu. Gusty swly winds to
20 kts Thu aft.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 249 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Rest of this Afternoon through Tomorrow Night...Forecast
Confidence High...

Gusty northwest winds will continue through the rest of this
afternoon. As we head into this evening, the combination of
decreased boundary layer mixing and the arrival of high pressure
should result in a quick drop off in wind speeds. Temperatures
tonight should fall into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

Winds will become southwesterly tomorrow as the surface high
moves into the Mid Atlantic. This will help boost temperatures
into the mid to upper 50s with plenty of sun. Lows tomorrow night
will be on the mild side, with low to mid 40s expected.

LONG TERM...

Friday and Saturday...Forecast Confidence Medium to High...

Gusty southwest winds continue on Friday morning, ahead of
another cold front approaching from the northwest. This front will
comes through during the afternoon and early evening hours. A few
sprinkles or light showers aren`t out of the question, but for
most places this should be a dry frontal passage.

Brisk northwest winds will continue on Saturday as a stronger mid
level shortwave and associated cold front move through during the
mid day hours. We should see an area of precipitation develop and
move across the area in association with this system. Right now,
it looks like it may be just warm enough to keep this as mostly
rain, though a few wet snowflakes are certainly possible,
especially across central Wisconsin. In any case, temperatures are
expected to remain warm enough to preclude any meaningful accumulation.

Sunday through Mid Week Next Week...Forecast Confidence Medium to
High...

The active (and windy) pattern of northwest flow will continue
into next week, with a parade of clipper systems every 2-3 days.
After Saturday, precipitation chances look rather low through mid
week next week. Temperatures will vary a bit, oscillating between
low to mid 50s and low to mid 40s ahead of and behind each frontal
passage.

AVIATION(21Z TAF Update)...

VFR is expected through the next 24 hours. Gusty northwest winds
will persist this afternoon, but should quickly fall off by early
evening as high pressure moves south into the area and
temperatures start to cool. Winds will be light overnight, as they
shift to the southwest. Southwest winds will then prevail on
Thursday.

MARINE...

Gusty northwest winds will continue into early evening across the
nearshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 7
PM.

Winds will become southwesterly by tomorrow morning, increasing
tomorrow afternoon, especially across the northern half of the
Lake. A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern half of Lake
Michigan for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, with gales to
40 knots expected. Another Small Craft Advisory may be needed for
the nearshore waters as well.

Winds are expected to fall off a bit tomorrow night, but increase
again from the southwest Friday ahead of a cold front. Southwest
gales are looking increasingly likely for the entire lake on
Friday ahead of the front, with northwest gales possible Friday
night into Saturday behind the front. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed for these times as well.

The overall active pattern looks to persist into next week, with
winds switching between southwest and west/northwest every few
days as various frontal boundaries move across Lake Michigan.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Thursday Night through Wednesday...Boxell


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