Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 190232 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
932 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.


.UPDATE...Have updated to adjust pops for numerous showers and
storms well inland which are gradually diminishing. Small pops
follow for the overnight hours over the southern portion of the
area as the diminishing convection continues slowly southward.
Made additional adjustments to temperature trends and winds. /29


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 712 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...Have kept in -shra as prevailing weather thru
19.02Z along the Gulf coast given radar trends and to allow time
for further dissipation. Additional clusters of tsra over the
interior, but do not anticipate these making any impacts over
coastal terminals. Cig bases generally at mid and high levels with
light west to northwest winds thru the night. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 530 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...No significant changes to the
near term package. Mean mid level troughing will continue to
extend southward across our forecast area through Thursday
afternoon. Scattered showers and storms over the region late this
afternoon should diminish in coverage through the evening. Another
round of scattered to numerous showers and storms should develop
late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, with storms most
numerous along a weak trough/surface boundary where theta-e/deep
layer moisture will be enhanced during the afternoon hours.
Outside of convection, heat indices will be higher across the
region Thursday afternoon, with max values ranging between
102-107. /21

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...An upper
level trough is forecast to deepen across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valley region and across the southeastern U.S. through Saturday
night, while an upper level ridge builds across the southern
Plains. A mean northwest flow pattern aloft will prevail across
our area between these features through Saturday night. Deep layer
moisture is expected to shift farther south and east, with
slightly drier air advecting into our western and northern zones.
Will maintain low end scattered POPs Friday afternoon, with the
best coverage mainly along and east of I-65. A more active
convective day is still anticipated on Saturday as a more vigorous
shortwave trough pushes southeastward across our area on the
southwestern periphery of the aforementioned trough axis. Medium
range guidance indicates that better coverage of convection may be
east of our area, but there will be enough moisture for isolated
to scattered storms across our region. Increased deep layer shear
with the digging shortwave trough along with decent afternoon
instability/CAPE values over 2000 J/KG may result in a few strong
to severe storms and will need to monitor closely. Heat will
otherwise remain a concern as maximum heat indices could
potentially range between 105-110 on Friday and Saturday
afternoons. /21

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Medium range guidance is
in relatively good agreement with shifting the deep upper level
trough located from the Tennessee Valley/southeastern U.S. Sunday
southwestward toward the central Gulf Coast region early next
week. Better moisture and convective chances may remain confined
east of our area Sunday, before better coverage potentially
returns early next week with increasing deep layer moisture
associated with the southwestward shifting trough axis. Plenty of
heat/humidity otherwise continues through the extended.  /21

MARINE...A light to moderate westerly flow will prevail over the
marine area through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure
extends across the central and southern Gulf of Mexico and a weak
trough extends just north of the Gulf coast.




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