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049
FXUS63 KMPX 161715
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1215 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Warm air advection has kept temperatures in the upper 30s and mid
40s during the early morning hours. Cloud cover over portions of
Central MN and Western WI has also helped to moderate
temperatures. The trough extending from Ontario will continue
traveling eastward today. Its cold front will progress southward
through the forecast area during the late morning and afternoon.
Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front and cold air
advection will cause a continuation of breezy conditions with
widespread 20-30 kts wind gusts expected through the afternoon.

Temperatures at 850 mb will drop below freezing again by peak
heating, so daytime highs will be limited to the lower 40s in
Central MN to lower 50s in Southern MN. Surface temperatures Tuesday
night are expected to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Skies
will likely stay mostly cloudy over the northern half of MN and
Northwestern WI tonight and gradually clear Wednesday morning as the
upper level trough moves off to the east. The NAM and HREF hint at
stratocumulus developing over Southwestern MN Wednesday morning. If
confidence increases in that possibility, then cloud cover will have
to be increased.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Few changes in the extended, with the biggest change being chances
for precip Thursday night into Friday morning looking a bit
better. Otherwise, on the whole, it looks like a breezy period, with
temperatures generally below normal (but not of the 15ish degrees
below normal variety as seen Monday), and skies that will feature
less in the way of cloud cover than we saw for the first couple of
weeks of October.

The warmest day this week continues to be Thursday, when 925-850mb
temps will increase to between 8C and 10C. Friday, despite the
passage of cold front during the morning will be milder again as
the strongest CAA will lag the wind shift a bit.  Both days, boosted
blended highs toward the warmer ECMWF, with most of the MN area
expected to see highs in the 60s Thursday, with lower 60s still
looking like a good bet Friday for the Twin Cities on south.  Cold
front coming through Friday morning will be battling dry air, but
models are showing the shortwave coming up from the closed h5 low
currently over the 4-corners Friday morning being a bit stronger
than previously forecast. Forcing with this wave plus surface
dewpoints into the mid 40s should provide enough moisture and lift
to get some light rain going. GEFS QPF plumes are now showing
several members with some light QPF at MSP and EAU Friday morning,
so it is starting to look better to see some light rain around then
across eastern MN and western WI, though we are only talking of QPF
amounts of 0.1" or less.

We`ll have a Canadian high cool us down quite a bit for Saturday,
which will likely result in some wind gusts late Friday afternoon
into Friday night pushing 40 mph over our typical windy areas in MN.
However, this high will be moving east quickly, with return flow
back in place Saturday night and WAA back in by Sunday, with highs
near 60 possible again in far western MN.

Next week, we will see yet another dry front pass through on Monday,
with an expansive Canadian high dropping down its wake. This high
will slowly move through the Great Lakes, with it being our source
of low level air through most of the week. So despite h5 heights
building through the week, our low level air getting sourced by this
cool and dry high pressure to the east will keep our temperatures
running slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

No aviation concerns with gusty northwest winds this afternoon,
decreasing some overnight, but becoming gusty again Wednesday
morning, especially in eastern Minnesota, and western Wisconsin.
MVFR cigs in northern Minnesota could brush central Minnesota with
low end VFR cigs this afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, no
concerns.

KMSP...

No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Thu...VFR with -SHRA possible late. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SW becoming NW 10-15 kts.
Sat.. VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AMK
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JLT