481
FXUS63 KMPX 140352
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1052 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances lessening for this evening.

- Continued rounds of Canadian wildfire smoke and poor air
  quality possible through Monday.

- Widespread rain chances will come Tuesday afternoon through
  Wednesday night. Severe storms will be possible Tuesday
  afternoon & evening, with an excessive rain threat existing
  through the whole period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

This morning`s smoke has dispersed to the east, as can be
reflected by area visibilities returning to 10 miles or greater.
The current air quality remains in the moderate (yellow)
category and an Air Quality Alert remains in effect through
Monday morning in Minnesota and through noon in Wisconsin. It is
possible we will see another bout of smoke Monday, but for now,
it is forecast to stay in the northern third of Minnesota.
Otherwise, mostly clear conditions across the region, with a
small chance for storms in west central Minnesota around 7PM
tonight. These storms, should they come to fruition, would be
widely scattered and not stick around for long given lackluster
mid-level support. That said, MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/Kg,
moderate deep layer shear, and little CIN gives the chance for
storms to initiate given the instability. Storms would be
diurnal in nature, and collapse before making it to eastern
Minnesota. All of this to say, it will likely be dry for most
tonight.

As alluded to above, Monday could bring another round of smoke.
However, according to the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency,
most of southern Minnesota shouldn`t exceed the yellow
(moderate) category. Northern Minnesota (Duluth to Bemidji and
north) will see red (unhealthy) category, but how far south it
expands remains the question at hand. Monday will be dry and
warm ahead of a wet and warm midweek. A positively tilted trough
will span the CONUS in conjunction with a warm front over the
area. This warm front could lead to several inches of rain in
Minnesota. The ECMWF Ens puts PWATs at 160% of normal for the
Tuesday night into Wednesday period (roughly equivalent to
1.7-1.8"). The trickiest part with this set up is where the
heaviest downpours will occur and if an area is repeatedly hit
with rain. For now, two day QPF has highest amounts across west
central Minnesota around 2-2.5" (in alignment with WPC`s Slight
for the Day 3 Excessive Rain Outlook). Farther east and south of
a line from St. Cloud to Redwood Falls, amounts lessen to
1-1.5". Farther south and east yet, and we see amounts under an
inch. The more likely scenario will be pockets of 3" (maybe
more) with a good soaking of 0.5-1.0" everywhere. The main
limiting factor for the heavy rain threat is due to chance for
several waves (vs. nonstop rain) given the nature of the upper
level wave slowly moving across the north central CONUS. This
will mean we get some breaks between each round of rain, with
each subsequent round likely to fall slightly farther south than
the previous. We will be keeping a close eye on this in the
coming days and adjust our forecast accordingly. In addition to
the rain, it will be hot and muggy through Tuesday. Highs in the
upper 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s will be unpleasant, and
potentially lead to heat headlines.

To end the upcoming workweek, we will have cool high pressure
from Canada. This will mean highs in the 70s, but as it is
coming from Canada, there could be a renewed threat for reduced
air quality from wildfire smoke. Seasonably strong zonal flow
along the US/Canada border next weekend, which means we should
continue to see a parade of waves moving across the region, with
no prolonged stretches of dry weather expected anytime soon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The main issue in this duration will be the return of near-
surface smoke during the day Monday. Another wave of Canadian
wildfire smoke, likely the last one before a midweek cold
front, will move into the region after daybreak tomorrow and
will likely reduce all sites to MVFR-range visibility. In
addition, mid-level diurnal cumulus clouds are likely to
develop tomorrow but be relatively insignificant. SW winds
around 10kts will go light/variable overnight before picking up
from the SE at 5-10kts after sunrise tomorrow. Should winds go
calm close to sunrise, there is a period of ground fog possible
which could produce low MVFR to IFR visibilities at the WI TAF
sites.

KMSP...VFR through the overnight hours, then MVFR-range
visibility due to Canadian wildfire smoke is expected during the
daytime hours Monday. Otherwise, no issues.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, TSRA likely evening/overnight. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
WED...MVFR, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR, Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...JPC