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000
FXUS63 KMPX 151923
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
223 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Frontal boundary is currently making its way east through the
forecast area, and is nearing the I-35 corridor. Northwesterly
winds and lower dewpoints can be found in the western portion of
the forecast area, and they will overspread the remainder of the
area late this afternoon and tonight. Isolated showers could still
impact the eastern portion of the area this afternoon, but
instability is quickly fading, so not expecting much if anything
further pops up. The first part of the week looks to be quiet,
dry, and pleasant for those who haven`t enjoyed the recent heat
and humidity. Temperatures will still be in the 80s Monday, but
will cool further on Tuesday as northwest flow persists and the
Canadian high pressure moves across the region. The second half of
the week will bring active weather back to the area. Return flow
will start to setup Wednesday night, and a surface low looks to
move by to our south Thursday and Thursday night, bringing
widespread showers with embedded thunder to the area. Guidance is
in fairly good agreement on the overall scenario and evolution of
large scale features through the week, so have fairly high PoPs
for Thursday given the time of year. We`ll see northwest flow work
back in for Friday into the weekend, with some
showers/thunderstorms possible (particularly during the day) as
cyclonic boundary layer flow and the mid/upper level cold pool
lingers over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

West central MN activity is on the wane finally. Worked into KAXN
area and should weaken further. Dont believe it will work toward
KRWF before dissipating. Further east, some isolated -shra
developed along an arc from southeast MN into west central WI.
Those too seem to be weakening with rather weak low level flow.
Still, working with 1000-1500 J/kg cape this afternoon and if the
boundary can localized some low level convergence, we could still
see some isolated -shra/-tsra over the east this afternoon.
Mentioned a token VCSH over the east.

Trend will remain VFR during the period with and lower clouds
drying up this evening and high clouds moving out. Surface winds
becoming nw into tonight and perhaps becoming a bit gusty late
morning to the east as the cooler/drier air moves in.

KMSP...still low confidence on convective potential as front moves
through. Reasoning remains the same with isold potential possible
through the afternoon. Surface winds w-nw and becoming gusty by
late Monday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON night...VFR. N wind 5 kt.
TUE...VFR. NW Wind 5 kt.
WED...VFR. Chance MVFR with -TSRA late. SE Wind 5-10 kt.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DWE