Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 171352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
952 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will move slowly eastward
this weekend while a series of cold fronts will pass through, one
this evening and another Sunday night. High pressure will then
build from the northwest on Monday. A series of low pressure
centers will then pass to the south and east during mid week,
followed by building high pressure late week.


Forecast on track this morning with no significant changes. A
large scale area of deep low pressure will remain centered
across eastern Canada, with a series of shortwave mid level
troughs rotating around it and into/across New England. The
first of these will send a moisture-starved cold front across
this evening. Today will be mostly sunny day with highs in the
40s, but brisk W winds should keep wind chills mainly in the
upper 20s inland and 30s elsewhere. Tonight should be rather
cold as winds turn N and advect colder/drier air in this
evening, then drop off late. Lows will be in the 20s in the NYC
metro area and along most of the coastline, with teens inland,
along the SE CT coast, and in the Long Island Pine Barrens.


Sunday will be mostly sunny and a few degrees colder than Sat,
with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. The next shortwave
passing to the north will be accompanied by a weak sfc low that
looks to have more available low level moisture and lift, so
expect some evening flurries north and east of NYC. Lows Sunday
night do not look to be much different than those forecast for

Sfc high pressure nosing down from central Canada after this
weak low passes by will maintain the cold air in place, and high
temps once again on Mon should be in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
Increasing clouds ahead of approaching low pressure Mon night
will keep temps from falling as much as previous nights, with
lows in the 20s and lower 30s. Precip with the low should hold
off until daytime Tue.


Complex pattern with model handling of western jet tracking across
the southern states, and H5 shortwaves that track across the US
toward the east coast during the mid week period.

Analysis of latest global model runs actually agree on dry weather
for the most part in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe, with GFS
suggesting initial low/shortwave and northern extent of associated
precip shield clipping the area later Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Next shortwave looks to dig further south across the SE states,
resulting in the development of another low pressure off the SE
coast that tracks well to the south and east late Wednesday into

Several GEFS members however remain wet at times through this mid
week time frame. At this time, have maintained chance Pops, lowering
slightly from previous forecast for predominately snow across our

Temperatures looks quite chilly this week as cold canadian air
remains entrenched across the northeast.

Higher likelihood of dry weather returns Thursday night into Friday
with Canadian high pressure slowly building in from the west.


High pressure builds in from the west, and slides south of the

VFR thru the period.

WNW wind speeds and gusts increase through the morning. Expect
gusts to 25-30 kt during the afternoon hours.

A shift to the NW occurs 22Z-00Z as a weak front moves through.
Winds diminish overnight.

.Sunday-Monday night...VFR.
.Tuesday...VFR, possibly becoming MVFR or lower by the afternoon
in snow, or wintry mix. Gusty E-NE flow develops, 15-25kt.
.Tuesday night and Wednesday...Mainly VFR, but cannot rule out IFR
in snow. Rain and snow possible along the coast Wednesday. Gusty NE
wind 20-30kt.


Winds have diminished out east and so have replaced gale
warnings with SCA into this evening, as W winds still gust to
25-30 kt. SCA remains in effect elsewhere through the day today,
and except for the eastern sound and the bays of Long Island,
wind gusts 25-30 kt look to be more near shore than widespread.

Mainly quiet conds expected later tonight into Mon night, though
a few wind gusts may approach 25 kt on the eastern ocean waters
daytime Sunday.

As high pressure remains NW of the area, just north of the Great
Lakes region, and a series of low pressure centers pass southeast of
the waters, the pressure gradient will tighten up Tuesday
through Thursday. Expect NE winds, potentially gale force Tue
night into Wednesday, to back to the north by Thursday, but
remain gusty.

Seas build Tuesday and remain rather rough through this time frame.


A low probability for significant precipitation exists Tuesday
through Wednesday night depending on the eventual track of low
pressure centers. If precipitation does indeed occur, it likely
will be in the form of snow, so no hydrologic impacts are


There is the potential for a prolonged period of E-NE flow from
Tuesday into Wednesday Night. Tidal departures of generally
only 1 to 1 1/2 ft are needed for minor flooding for many
locations during this time, and 2 to 3 ft for moderate.

Depending on the exact track/strength of a coastal low or lows
during this time frame, there is the potential for minor to
moderate coastal flooding, but predictability on the details
remains low.


NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350.


NEAR TERM...BC/Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
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