Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 192021
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
321 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Hot weather will continue through tomorrow afternoon across our
entire forecast area. A "cold" front will then move into northern
Oklahoma tomorrow evening, under northwest flow aloft. This will
take the edge off the heat, as temperatures drop back closer to
the seasonal averages. The heat will hang on an extra day or two
along the Red River, as it will take some time for the "cooler"
air to make it that far south.

Short-range models and CAMs are suggesting scattered showers and
thunderstorms late this afternoon/this evening across northwest
and perhaps north-central Oklahoma (some models even bring
convection into central Oklahoma overnight, despite minimal CAPE
values and extreme surface-based CIN). With the deep layer of dry
adiabatic lapse rates below the precipitation, strong winds could
accompany any showers or storms that form. Other forms of severe
weather are extremely unlikely.

There may also be a few showers/thunderstorms with the front
tomorrow night into Saturday night, but weak instability and
strong inhibition will probably keep development in the isolated
category...if anything develops at all.

As the upper-level high shifts farther west late next week,
temperatures will remain close to the seasonal average, and rain
chances will go up a little...at least in western Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76 108  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         78 110  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  81 110  80 110 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           73 107  73  96 /  20  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     73 104  74  94 /  20  10  10   0
Durant OK         78 108  79 106 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ004-005-009>011-
     014>019-021>025-027>029-040.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ006>008-012-013-020-026-030>032-041>043-046>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     OKZ006>008-012-013-020-026-030>032-041.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ033>039-044-045.

     Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     OKZ042-043-046>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

06/23


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