Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 232057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
357 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Near-term fire weather concerns will lessen early this evening. Then
the focus shifts to periods of showers and thunderstorms that are
expected to begin late Sunday and persist much of next week. Heavy
rain and generally isolated/marginally severe thunderstorms are

Low-level response to shortwave trough now emerging onto the central
High Plains has brought moisture back to portions of the area. High
level moisture within strengthening southwesterly flow aloft has
brought cirrus across the area which has also tempered heating
somewhat resulting in lower temperatures than expected and limiting
the eastward mixing of the dryline. Critical fire weather conditions
have been mainly confined to the panhandles and now extreme
northwest Oklahoma. Further eastward progression may occur but it is
unlikely that post-frontal critical fire weather conditions will be
experienced as far east as the current Red Flag Warning
configuration indicates. The eastward moving shortwave will send a
cold front through Saturday morning.

A somewhat complex evolution of western trough this weekend into
next week leads to some forecast uncertainties. By late Saturday
night, deepening low level moisture below capping EML may cause some
showers across the southern portion of the area, and these may
expect throughout the morning as moisture continues to deepen and
ascent from lead wave/upper jet exit region moves through.
Elevated thunderstorms could occur with this initial round given
modest MUCAPE values in forecast soundings. A few surface based
thunderstorms could form across southwest portions of the area
late afternoon/evening along a sharpening dryline. Instability and
deep layer shear would support severe thunderstorm potential, but
convection even developing is conditional on if the cap can be
overcome. There may be a period of subsidence behind lead wave and
ascent from the main western trough may not be substantial enough
for convection to form until later in the night into Monday.

We have the highest precipitation probabilities assigned to Monday
and Monday night, including the mention of heavy rainfall potential
Monday night across southeast portions of the area. Anomalous PWAT
would support potential for heavy rainfall and potentially
flooding, primarily across the southeast third of the area. If
pockets of heating/destabilization can occur Monday, at least a
low-end severe weather threat would be possible. This would be
most likely across portions of southern Oklahoma and our western
north Texas counties. Kinematic fields would support organized
convection and severe potential, but again this is conditional on

By Tuesday, a northern stream trough will move east forcing a cold
front and more stable air mass into the area. Unless the synoptic
pattern slows some this should lessen our threat of heavy rain and
severe thunderstorms, although medium range guidance has weakening
closed southeast low opening up and slowly shifting through. There
may be a period of ascent atop the cool air mass for showers on
Tuesday and into Wednesday. Toward the end of the weak another
shortwave trough within northwesterly flow moves through but deeper
moisture will be confined to areas east of here and so we kept
precipitation chances low. Temperatures should be close to normal
late next week.



Oklahoma City OK  78  57  76  48 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         82  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  85  59  80  57 /   0   0   0  20
Gage OK           90  50  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     77  54  70  40 /  10  10   0   0
Durant OK         72  63  80  56 /  10   0   0  20


OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-



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