Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 190057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
857 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018


The current forecast remains on track with only some minor changes
in the evening update to reflect current temps. PoPs will continue
to decrease this evening before an uptick in activity along the
coastal and marine areas overnight.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
A weak surface front will remain situated across central Alabama and
Georgia through tonight. South of this front, across the CWA, there
is plenty of moisture in place with PW values around 2 inches. With
the moisture and additional lift from the nearby boundary,
convection will continue to increase this afternoon. With loss of
daytime heating though, PoPs will diminish overnight for the land
areas while increasing again across the marine area the second half
of the night. Localized areas of heavy rain are possible with slow
moving/training storms and thus the main threat through this evening
is localized, minor flooding. Lows tonight will fall into the mid
70s with the upper 70s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
The tail-end of a frontal system will approach the area going into
the short term. The typical summer seabreeze pattern and forcing
from the front will result in above seasonal PoPS on Thursday. As
the front exits to the east, the potential exists for dry air to
enter behind it. High PoPs will still be present in our southeastern
areas on Friday, but rain chances will be significantly lower in our
northwestern counties with the intrusion of the drier air. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s while lows will
be in the mid-upper 70s.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
A rather amplified pattern at the beginning of the extended range
will feature a deep cut-off low over the Ohio River Valley, with
the trough axis extending to the Gulf Coast. A seasonably potent
shortwave is forecast to move through the base of the trough on
Saturday, along with it`s associated mid-level wind max. This
feature, along with an already moist and unstable summertime
airmass, will likely support some strong to severe thunderstorms
during the day Saturday. With deep-layer shear values of 30-40
knots, the activity may be more organized than typical summertime
pulse severe storms.

By Sunday into the middle of next week, the aforementioned upper
low is expected to drop southward to the central Gulf Coast before
retrograding westward. Initially, this may push the highest rain
chances towards the eastern half of the area for Sunday and
Monday. However, as the low moves westward, the moist southerly
flow spread back over the entire forecast area by Tuesday and

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the night, with the exception
of some MVFR ceilings creeping into VLD near morning. Through the
morning and early afternoon, MVFR may spread to TLH and ABY as
well, before lifting to VFR levels by midday. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to be widespread on Thursday.

West to southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with seas of 2 to 3 feet
will continue through the week. A frontal system passing through
the area over the weekend is expected to increase winds and seas to
near advisory levels. Showers and thunderstorms are expected each

There are no fire weather concerns for the next several days with a
very moist airmass in place along with light prevailing winds.

Widespread flooding is not anticipated, but a very moist airmass
in place will certainly contribute to very localized minor
flooding in any of the slower moving thunderstorms the next few
days. Some localized increases on area rivers are also
possible, but rises to minor flood stage are not expected.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   74  90  73  90  74 /  30  60  50  60  20
Panama City   77  89  76  90  78 /  40  50  40  40  10
Dothan        74  90  73  93  75 /  30  70  50  40  10
Albany        75  90  74  92  74 /  40  70  50  40  20
Valdosta      74  89  73  89  73 /  20  70  50  70  30
Cross City    75  88  74  86  75 /  60  70  60  70  30
Apalachicola  77  87  77  88  78 /  60  60  60  60  20


FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Gulf.



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