Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 180003
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
703 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017


.AVIATION...

[Through 00z Tuesday] Moisture will continue to increase through
the period with low ceilings, areas of fog, and occasional rain
and drizzle. Expect conditions to deteriorate to LIFR later
tonight with only a slow recovery to IFR expected during the day
on Tuesday.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [239 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Shortwave energy rounding the top of a shallow ridge over the
Florida Peninsula along with an approaching cold front is helping to
increase deep layer moisture. This along with a warm front currently
lifting further across the Florida Panhandle will bring increasing
rain chances this evening and overnight. PoPs will be tapered
good chance (50%) northwest to slight (20%) southeast. With the
the increasing low level moisture and above seasonal minimum
temperatures we expect widespread fog to develop, possibly
becoming dense outside of rain areas. Lows will be in the lower
60s.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
On Monday, a frontal zone will be across the northern portion of
the forecast area and with moist southerly flow across much of the
region, expect the day to start off cloudy with areas of fog.
With the southerly flow over the cool shelf waters, fog and
stratus may linger around the coast and adjacent waters well into
the afternoon on Monday. Then, it`s just a question of the
stratus deck thinning inland by late afternoon as the boundary
continues to retreat northward. Highs should be at least in the
mid 70s with some areas reaching the upper 70s.

By Tuesday, with the frontal boundary well north of the region,
the only sensible weather expected is another round of fog/stratus
in the morning that may linger into the afternoon at the coast.
Across inland areas, it`s expected the stratus will scatter out by
afternoon and allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and
approach record territory in a few spots. The daily record high
for TLH is 80 degrees on Tuesday.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Model guidance is in reasonably good agreement that a trough will
move quickly through Texas and into the Lower Mississippi River
Valley by Wednesday morning. This will drive a frontal system
into the forecast area by daybreak and across the entire area by
the end of the day. While severe parameters are not as favorable
as 24 hours ago, there still looks to be some potential for severe
weather, mainly west of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers
where instability will be greatest (such that it is).

Marginally cooler and drier air will arrive behind this system on
Thursday, followed by a large building ridge spreading northward
across Florida on Friday. While there has been some notable run to
run variability beyond Saturday in the guidance, the overall trend
suggests that a large building ridge will slow or possibly stall
an approaching frontal boundary well to the NW of the forecast
area across the Mid-South late in the period. Should this end up
verifying, the forecast from Friday through the weekend would
support very warm and generally dry conditions. Model guidance
currently indicates high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80,
which for the time of year is close to record territory.


.MARINE...
Winds remain southerly over the next couple of days less than 15
knots. As moisture increases in southerly flow, expect areas of
fog to develop mainly near the coast tonight and likely continuing
through Wednesday. A frontal boundary will cross the marine area
on Wednesday, increasing winds to near advisory levels. Winds will
then decrease by Thursday as high pressure builds back near the
marine area.


.FIRE WEATHER...
A moist airmass will remain in place across our area for the next
several days. As a result, no fire weather concerns are
anticipated.


.HYDROLOGY...
Rain chances on Monday will be greatest across the NW portion of
the forecast area where a half inch of rain is possible. The next
chance of rain is on Wednesday with the cold front. Up to an inch
of rain is possible. Flooding is not expected.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   61  78  60  80  60 /  20  10  10   0  10
Panama City   65  74  62  74  63 /  40  20   0   0  20
Dothan        63  73  61  78  61 /  50  40  20  10  30
Albany        61  72  60  74  60 /  50  40  20  10  20
Valdosta      60  77  60  78  59 /  20  20  10   0  10
Cross City    57  80  57  79  56 /  10  10  10   0  10
Apalachicola  63  73  61  73  62 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Godsey



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