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000
AXNT20 KNHC 101758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WINDS...

Expect gale NW to N winds, and rough seas from 22N to 23N between
96.5W and 98W. Gale-force winds also are near the mouth of the
Mississippi River. NW to N gale-force winds, and building moderate
to rough seas, are going to be starting soon, from 19N to 21N
between 95W and 97W.

A cold front extends from an upper Texas Gulf Coast 1002 mb low
pressure center, to the middle Texas Gulf Coast, to the coast of
Mexico near 22N97W, to 22N101W in Mexico. A stationary front
extends eastward from the 1002 mb low pressure center, to the
coastal plains of Alabama. One surface trough is along 30N93W
22N97W. A second surface trough is along 20N/21N between 89W and
98W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 29N
northward between the Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere to the east of
the 30N93W 22N97W surface trough.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS...

The 30-hour marine forecast, starting on Thursday in the
afternoon, consists of a cold front to be at the coast of NE
Florida. Expect gale-force S winds, and rough to very rough seas,
from 30.5N to 31N between 77W and 80W. The gale-force winds are
forecast to end by Friday morning.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to the Equator along 21W. The ITCZ
continues from the Equator along 21W, to the Equator along 43W, to
01N48W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 13N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning, for multiple areas.

Strong SE to S winds are to the east of the surface trough and the cold
front. Rough seas are between the Florida Panhandle and the
Louisiana/Texas border; and in the SW corner of the Gulf. Moderate
seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front has entered the far western Gulf. A pre- frontal
trough is producing strong to severe thunderstorms over the north-
central to NW Gulf. Strong SE to S winds will prevail east of a
cold front. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to the
NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning, then move SE of
the area Fri morning. Winds will briefly reach gale force
offshore Tampico, Mexico this morning and off Veracruz, Mexico
this afternoon behind the front. Frequent gusts to gale force are
possible with thunderstorm activity over the north- central to
northeastern Gulf through Thu morning. High pressure will build in
the wake of the front with improving conditions through the
upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating cold front passes through 17N60W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 16N70W, to Jamaica, and 19N80W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, are from 14N to 22N between 60W and 80W. The
24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
10/1200 UTC, are: 0.04 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This
information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the
coastal waters that are between Panama and SE Nicaragua between
81W and 84W. A surface trough is near 10N76W in northern Colombia,
passing beyond 07N84W in the Pacific Ocean.

Near gale-force easterly winds are from 11N to 13N between 74W and
77W. Strong NE to E winds are elsewhere between 70W and 80W. Fresh
to strong NE winds are from 15N to 18N between 66W and 68W.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the remainder of the waters
that are from 80W eastward. Strong to near gale-force SE winds
were in the NW corner of the area from Honduras northward from 84W
westward. Fresh NE to E winds are in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Rough seas are from Panama to 18N between 70W and
81W. The comparatively highest seas to 12 feet are near 12N78W.
Rough seas to 11 feet are from 83W westward in the NW corner of
the area. Moderate seas cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south central
Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at night off of Colombia the
next several nights. Gale force winds are possible offshore
Colombia on Friday night. Fresh to strong winds are expected in
the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of
Honduras through Thu before diminishing. A cold front is expected
to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night, then stall and weaken over
the NW Caribbean late Fri into Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning, for the western Atlantic Ocean.

A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 31N66W. Mostly moderate to
some fresh anticyclonic winds are from 26N southward from 60W
westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remaining waters
that are from 60W westward. Moderate to rough seas are from the
Bahamas to 26N between 72W and 75W. Moderate seas are elsewhere
from 70W westward.

A cold front passes through 31N36W, to 25N40W, to 21N47W. The cold
front is dissipating from 21N47W, to 19N50W 18N56W 17N60W. The
dissipating cold front continues into the Caribbean Sea to
Jamaica. Rough seas are from the dissipating cold front northward
between 50W and 70W. Rough seas mostly from 10 feet to 12 feet
are from the cold front northward between the cold front and 60W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180
nm on either side of the cold front.

A surface ridge is along 18N43W 29N33W beyond 31N29W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is from 18N northward from the cold front
eastward. Rough to very rough seas are from 24N northward from 20W
eastward. Rough seas are to the north of 11N21W 17N28W from 28W
eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean. Moderate to fresh NE winds cover much of the Atlantic
Ocean. Some exceptions are for moderate or slower winds from 17N
northward between 33W and 45W; from 23N northward between the cold
front and 57W; and from 15N to 19N between 47W and 56W.

Large NW swell across the NE waters will shift E of the area
today. High pressure in the western Atlantic will shift E through
the end of the week. The associated ridge will support fresh to
strong winds across the Great Bahama Bank and the Caribbean
approaches through Thu. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas this evening and
increase to strong to near gale-force late tonight through Thu,
ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is expected to cross
the Florida Peninsula Thu night. Gales are expected Thu and Thu
night N of 30N and E of the front, and briefly N of 30N W of the
front Thu night. The front will reach from 31N74W to the NW
Bahamas Fri morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas
Sat morning. The front will then stall and dissipate through the
remainder of the upcoming weekend.

$$
mt/ah