Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 180242
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
942 PM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will overspread the North Country after midnight
tonight and continue through at least midday on Monday before
tapering off. Snow accumulations will range from an inch near
the Canadian Border and up to three inches across southern
Vermont. High pressure builds into the region Monday night for
colder and drier weather with temperatures dropping into the
single digits above and below zero. Sunny and dry weather is
expected on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 942 PM EST Sunday...No major changes made to the
forecast, just ingested latest observations. Echoes have begun
to spread into the region, however much of the precipitation is
not making it to the ground. Closest obs reporting snow are west
towards the Finger Lakes region and south towards
Poughkeepsie...thus, timing still looks good for arrival of
precipitation across southern Vermont for later tonight.


Previous Discussion...
Forecast remains on track for a light snow event to move into
the area after midnight tonight and continue through midday on
Monday before tapering off from northwest to southeast across
the area. Looking at around an inch along the Canadian Border to
around three inches across Rutland and Windsor counties.

Clouds will continue to be on the increase tonight as upstream
shortwave trough moves toward the region. Strongest warm air
advection stays south across southern New England while weak
shortwave trough moves east-northeast across our area.
Frontogenesis will strengthen across southern areas and there
will be a second area of frontogenesis over northern areas in
response to the 850 mb low tracking across northern New York and
northern Vermont. Shortwave trough moves east of the area Monday
afternoon and this will help to decrease the precipitation. High
pressure builds in Monday night and with clearing skies and cold
air advection lows will drop into the single digits above and
below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 312 PM EST Sunday...High pressure will be in control with
light northwesterly winds for much of the day becoming more
variable and then southerly as the day progresses. No
precipitation is in the forecast. Despite plentiful sunshine and
the brilliant February sun, cold air advection will keep
temperatures below normal with highs in the teens to low 20s.
Overnight lows will be tricky with some mid-level clouds that
will begin to move into the area late Tuesday night, limiting
optimal radiational cooling. Lows should roughly range between
-5 and +5 F, but could be cooler across the Adirondacks should
mid-level clouds come in more slowly than currently forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 312 PM EST Sunday...The long term forecast starts dry for
Wednesday with a sharp ridge axis cresting over the forecast
area. Flow quickly switches from northwesterly to southwesterly
in response, which will begin a warming trend. A fairly weak
double-barrel low scenario will unfold late Wednesday into
Thursday as upper shortwave lifts from the Central Plains into
Ontario. While we do not get much of the dynamics associated
with this shortwave, we should see some precipitation from the
surface low`s warm front late Wednesday into Thursday. Good low-
level convergence, isentropic upglide, and our placement within
the right entrance region of a strong jet should be enough to
support modest lift needed for precipitation. Unfortunately,
warm air advection will allow temperatures aloft to warm above 0
F. A mix of sleet and freezing rain appears increasingly likely
before transitioning to rain. A coastal low will begin to
develop, but it develops late and better moisture will remain to
our south with the North Country in the dry slot of the lifting
low. So expect precipitation to quickly come to an end, which
should also limit the duration of mixed precipitation
experienced.

Ridging quickly builds in behind the system, which will likely
result in temperatures near to above seasonal norms with dry
conditions for much of the weekend. The next system looks to
approach the area next Sunday, with a fairly similar set up to the
mid-week system.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR through 06z...then as a low pressure
system approaches the region ceilings and visibilities will be
lowering with fairly widespread IFR conditions expected,
especially between 10z and 16z when light snow moves into the
area. Bottom line can see a lot of 1 to 3 mile visibilities and
1000-3000 foot ceilings during the 10z to 16z time period with
slowly improving conditions after 16z as the low moves well
southeast of the area. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less
through the period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN, Chance FZRA, Chance PL.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson/LaRocca
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Evenson/Neiles



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