Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 232005
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
405 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected through the
evening hours. Some of the thunderstorms could produce gusty winds
and briefly heavy rainfall. Showers and low clouds will linger
overnight tonight. Drier and slightly cooler weather returns Friday
with northerly winds and highs in the 60s. The next frontal system
brings a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms late in the day
Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 PM EDT Thursday...Low pressure is skirting across southern
Quebec this afternoon, with the warm front remaining to our south
and a cold front stretching southwest into IN/OH. The prefrontal
trough is crossing the region at this hour, but with the warm sector
remaining to our south, just seeing light to moderate rain.
Instability is limited as dewpoints are only in the 50s for much of
the area. The exception is in St Lawrence County, where southwest
winds have allowed dewpoints to reach into the lower 60s. Can`t rule
out some a few thunderstorms with gusty winds, especially in those
areas with higher dewpoints, as we head through the afternoon and
early evening, but overall expect the severe threat is marginal at
best. Have therefore removed enhanced strong/severe thunderstorm
threats from the forecast. It should be noted that areas west of the
Champlain Valley remain in a Slight Risk from SPC, so a locally
severe wind gust is still possible.

The cold front will move across the region overnight. Winds will
turn to the west and northwest behind the front, transitioning the
showers to more terrain based. The winds will increase as well,
especially late tonight into Friday morning as the surface low
deepens and moves off the Maine coast. Lows will be in the lower to
mid 50s in most spots. The mountain showers will gradually come to
an end through the day Friday as the upper low moves away and drier
air works into the region. Anticipate we`ll see breaks in the cloud
cover by late in the afternoon. Winds will subside through the day,
as well. Highs will be in the lower to mid 60s. Clearing skies
Friday night with lows in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EDT Thursday...H5 ridge crests across the area
during the first half of Saturday, followed quickly by a burst
of warm advection driven showers and the approach of a dampening
shortwave trough Saturday night. Our prior idea of an
increasing threat for showers by later in the afternoon and
overnight still looks reasonable at this point and have
maintained higher pops from 70-90% in this period accordingly.
Best mid-level instability gets shunted south over time so left
thunder chances minimal for now. Highs on Saturday to occur by
early afternoon given increasing clouds - lower to mid 70s, then
seasonably mild Saturday night under broad southerly flow -
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Thursday...Shortwave trough swings through the
area during Sunday as H5 heights fall and a fairly decent late
spring cold front crosses the area by afternoon. Have maintained
solid chance to low likely pops from late morning into the
afternoon hours (40-60%) and with some modest surface
instability have kept the idea of non-zero thunder chances in
the 20-40% range. Highs remain seasonably warm in the 70s.

Front then clears south Sunday evening with modest cooling and dry
weather returning for Monday. Thereafter the forecast becomes more
uncertain as a mean southeastern US ridge evolves over time
with the the forecast area lying on the northern periphery of
this feature. This will allow the potential for dampening
shortwave trough passages and occasional convective-type debris
activity rolling east-southeast into our area from time to
time. Always difficult to time such features this far out and as
such have held blended 12-hr pops in the chance category in the
Tuesday- Thursday time frame accordingly. Temperatures should
range near to slightly above normal through much of these latter
periods with daily highs mainly in the 70s and overnight lows
ranging from the upper 40s through the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions through this evening;
however, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly
18-21Z across nrn NY, and 21-00Z across VT, resulting in brief
periods of MVFR/IFR conditions at the TAF locations. Strong
gusty winds are possible with any of the thunderstorms, along
with brief heavy rainfall. The heavier convection moves out by
midnight, but additional showers will develop overnight,
especially at the mountain sites. A cold front will move
through late this evening, and expect ceilings will lower to
MVFR as a stratus deck develops behind the front. These ceilings
will persist into the morning hours Friday, gradually lifting
to VFR after 12z. South winds will be 10-15 kt through the
daylight hours today, then they will shift to the northwest
behind the front. Winds will become gusty Friday morning.


Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Memorial Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect, as south winds increase to
15-25 knots across Lake Champlain late this afternoon into the
evening. Winds will turn to the northwest late tonight behind a
cold front, remaining gusty to around 25 kt. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are also expected, mainly late this afternoon into
the early evening hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Banacos/Hastings
MARINE...WFO BTV


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