Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 230847
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
447 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system centered over the Northern Great Lakes this
morning will track southeastward today bringing scattered light
rain and snow showers to the area through Wednesday. Drier
weather will return through Friday night with high pressure
ridging over the area. Another low will track along the New
England coast this weekend bringing more showers, especially
across southern Vermont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 445 AM EDT Tuesday...Weak surface low will track
southeastward from the Northern Great Lakes today. Another low
pressure system forms off the New England coast, and we`ll see
energy transferring to that low as it grows stronger through the
day. Scattered showers move into our area around noon,
spreading southwest to northeast across the north country.
During this time upper level trough will also be moving eastward
and across New York along with potent shortwave energy rounding
out the base of the trough, but remaining south of our forecast
area. Upper level low tracks north of our area. PWATS are
pretty weak, under half an inch, so don`t expect heavy rain.
Showers continue into the overnight, mixing with and changing to
snow. Shower coverage will decrease overnight due to strong
vorticity maxima shifting east of our region. Snow levels fall
from about 3000 feet during the daytime hours down to 1000 feet
overnight. Surface low deepens off the New England coast and
slowly moves eastward and away from our area. Flow across our
area becomes more northwesterly Tuesday night and Wednesday, and
wrap around moisture will drive the upslope snow showers
overnight. About 1-3 inches of snow is expected across the high
peaks of the Dacks and Greens, especially the Northwest facing
slopes. During the day Wed we start to lose the moisture in the
dendritic growth zone, and warming temperatures should change
snow showers back over to rain showers before ending later
Wednesday. As previous forecast mentioned, "wouldn`t be
surprised to see an image from Mt Mansfield with 3-6 inches
total from Tuesday night through Wednesday."

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday... Wednesday night through Thursday
night will see a gradual decline in upslope shower activity as
high pressure builds into the region. By Thursday afternoon, the
area will see partly to mostly sunny skies and most areas
should be dry. Cold air advection will continue amid deep
northwesterly flow, keeping temperatures below normal. Thursday
will be the coldest day of the week, with forecast highs in the
20s. As high pressure strengthens Thursday night, decreasing
winds and decreasing cloud cover will support surface
temperatures dropping into the 20s for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday...Dry weather continues Friday as high
pressure remains in control. Looking ahead to the weekend
however, the weather pattern becomes more active as a broad
longwave trough digs into the eastern US. A series of shortwaves
will rotate around the base of the trough. One such shortwave
is forecast to trigger the development of a coastal low Friday
morning off the southeastern US Coast as the upper-level
disturbance encounters an increasingly unstable air mass in the
lower- and mid-levels. The coastal low is forecast to track up
the eastern Seaboard over the weekend, spreading some rain over
the northeastern US as it moves northward. Details on the timing
and amounts of precipitation have yet to be ironed out, but a
trend towards wetter conditions should be expected. At this
point, it appears most of the precipitation would fall as rain,
but a transition to some light snow on the back end of the
system is possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions and light winds are
expected to prevail through the evening and overnight hours
tonight with ceilings largely in the 3500 to 5000 ft range.
Showers will overspread all terminals during the late morning
and afternoon hours as a frontal occlusion moves through the
region. Instead of the typical stratiform precip pattern, it
appears precipitation will be very showery with precipitation on
and off through much of the day. Given warmer temperatures
tomorrow, all precipitation will fall as rain at the terminals
with period of MVFR conditions mixed with VFR conditions when
rain showers are observed.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...RSD
LONG TERM...RSD
AVIATION...Neiles



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