Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 290526
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1226 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Overcast conditions will bring a chance of snow showers and
patchy freezing drizzle through the first half of tonight. Some
untreated surfaces may remain icy as a result. Surface high
pressure eventually builds into the region from Canada,
resulting in gradual clearing for Wednesday, and quiet weather
conditions through the end of the work week. Our next chance for
snow showers arrives Saturday night into Sunday associated with
a modest trough and weak surface boundary.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1221 AM EST Wednesday...Have bumped hourly temps up by 3
to 5 degrees based on obs/clouds and trended 2 to 4 degrees
warmer for the anticipated low temps. Plenty of low clouds
continue across our fa with clearing line near the international
border. Latest satl and sounding data shows clearing develops by
08z-10z northern SLV/CPV and NEK and by 15z for most of the rest
of our area, with some lingering clouds likely in the mountains.
Expecting lows to range from the mid teens to mid 20s across our
cwa with a few lingering mtn flurries possible.

Northwesterly low- mid level flow and prevailing 2-3kft deep
stratus deck continues to yield sporadic snow showers and areas
of freezing drizzle, especially over the higher terrain where
modest upslope is aiding in precipitation production despite
small droplet sizes. Any accumulation will be quite minimal this
afternoon through this evening, but with road surfaces near to
slightly below freezing, could still see some icy spots on
untreated surfaces.

Little change in regional conditions through midnight, but
should begin to see some breaks in the overcast develop after
midnight, and will help bring lingering FZDZ and --SHSN to a
close. Northwest winds will continue at 5-10kt, and lingering
clouds will mitigate radiative cooling somewhat. Looking at
overnight lows mostly in the teens. If enough clearing takes
place in the pre-dawn hours, some single digits will be possible
in the Adirondacks and across Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom.

Across the higher summits, may see a bit of an undercast
develop Wednesday morning as subsidence pushes inversion layer
down to 2-3kft. Eventually, we lose saturation in the inversion
layer, so should trend partly to mostly sunny by Wednesday
afternoon. PoPs NIL. Continued NW flow and gradual CAA over the
next 18-24hrs yields highs in the low-mid 20s for Wednesday,
except locally 28-32F across s-central VT.

Colder temperatures for Wednesday night as high pressure builds
sewd from Ontario and Quebec, with ridge axis cresting over the
North Country at daybreak Thursday. Skies are expected to be
mainly clear. With light wind conditions, should see good
radiational cooling and overnight lows ranging from zero to 5
above across the Champlain Valley, s-central VT, and CT River
Valleys. Looking at zero to -10F across the remainder of the
region, with the coldest readings in the normally colder spots
within the northern Adirondacks and far nern VT. Given setup,
the forecast temperatures undercut the MOS consensus by several
degrees. PoPs NIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM EST Tuesday...The coldest day of the week is on
tap for the North Country on Thursday with high pressure fully
entrenched across the region. Even with the high pressure system
originating from the higher latitudes, the colder air remains
locked up in the arctic. Nevertheless, near normal to slightly
below normal temperatures are expected on Thursday with highs
generally ranging from the lower to upper 20s. It will actually
feel quite pleasant given we should see ample sunshine in the
morning and early afternoon followed by filtered sunshine in the
late afternoon. Some cloud cover may reside across the North
Country heading into the overnight hours which may limit
radiational colling so temperatures will likely be 5-10 degrees
warmer than Wednesday night. It`s looking like lows will range
from near zero to about 10 degrees with the possibility of a few
locations dropping just below freezing. If cloud cover is more
abundant than currently forecasted, we could see temperatures
several more degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM EST Tuesday...High pressure will remain entrenched
across the region again on Friday with some filtered sunshine
expected. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than on
Thursday as the air mass underneath the high slowly moderates.
An upper level trough approaching from the west will kick out
the high pressure system and bring the return of some rain/snow
chances back for the weekend. As has been the trend over the
past several days, the northern stream and southern stream
branches of the jet stream look like they will remain out of
phase. This should keep a developing low over the western
Atlantic well east of the 40N 70W benchmark and have no impact
on us here in the North Country. On the other hand, we could
see some showers as the upper level trough swings through
Saturday and Sunday but moisture will be severely lacking as the
low over the western Atlantic will ingest most of the moisture.
Snow totals will be very limited with little to nothing
expected at lower elevations and maybe a few inches toward some
of the higher peaks.

Another surge of warm air will work back into the North Country
on Monday as we get deep layer ridging building over the
region. Monday should be on the dry side but as we head into
Tuesday, we will see a potent shortwave passing along the
northern periphery of the building ridge which could bring some
rainfall to the region. Temperatures on Monday will warm into
the mid 30s with upper 30s to mid 40s expected on Tuesday. Even
with these warmer temperatures and southwesterly flow aloft,
the main moisture axis will reside to our south so it doesn`t
look like rain will be heavy if we get any early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Low clouds with mvfr conditions continue
to prevail at mpv/btv/slk and rut, while vfr is observed at
pbg/mss. Based on sounding and latest satl trends, expecting
mvfr sites to become vfr by 15z this morning with northwest
winds of 5 to 10 knots. Have noted some bl moisture increasing
again on Weds Night at slk, as moisture is trapped below a sharp
and extremely shallow llvl thermal inversion. Will have to
monitor the potential for fzfg at slk overnight Weds into Thurs,
as winds decouple and temps fall quickly. Otherwise, vfr
conditions will prevail at all sites from 15z thru 06z Thurs.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: MVFR. Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Taber
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Taber



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