Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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193
FXUS61 KBTV 161347
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
947 AM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area through Friday with fair
and seasonably mild to warm temperatures. The chances for
showers and storms increases by Friday night into Saturday
before drying returns for Sunday into Monday of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 946 AM EDT Wednesday...The forecast remains in good shape
with no significant changes needed. Have a great day!

Prior discussion...
Quiet weather expected through Thursday as expansive surface
high pressure builds slowly east from the Midwest/Great Lakes.
Upper troughing aloft may produce some scattered clouds across
the northern high terrain and northeastern VT today but outside
a stray sprinkle far northeast no precipitation is expected over
the next few days. Highs today from the upper 60s to mid 70s,
then slightly warmer - ranging through the 70s on Thursday by
which time full sunshine is expected for all areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 407 AM EDT Wednesday...Generally quiet weather for the short-
term forecast period as a 700mb shortwave ridge crests over the
North Country Thursday night into Friday morning. At low levels,
should see developing light S-SW return flow after midnight. This
should keep lows in the mid 50s across the Champlain and St.
Lawrence Valleys, but generally 45-50F for lows across the
Adirondacks and central/eastern VT.

Moderate south winds (10-15 mph, gusts to 25 mph in the Champlain
Valley) result in moderating temperatures into the low 80s for most
valley locations. Humidity levels will remain modest, with 2-m
dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s. May see some increasing
clouds late in the day as a mid-level shortwave trough pushes ewd
into nrn NY after 21Z Friday. Carried just a slight chance of
showers across nrn NY toward evening, but on balance expecting a dry
and pleasant day across the North Country for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 407 AM EDT Wednesday...We continue to monitor the potential for
a vigorous, digging trough across northern Ontario and the Northern
Great Lakes region Friday Night. This feature induces deep-layer
cyclonic flow across nrn NY into VT Friday night, along with
developing height falls. Anticipate increasing chances for showers,
especially after midnight. Included 40-60% PoPs, and locally near
70% PoPs for the pre-dawn hours across St. Lawrence and Franklin
Counties. Some instability - possibly elevated - is expected to be
present (around 500 J/kg per the 00Z GFS during the pre-dawn hours),
so included a slight chance of pre- dawn thunderstorms across
northern NY. Presently, appears best mid- level forcing crosses nrn
NY and VT during the mid-late morning hours. This is perhaps a
bit early to allow for best daytime heating and development of
strong surface based instability. Included 70% PoPs during the
late morning/early afternoon hours with chances for thunderstorms
on Saturday. If timing of mid-level trough slows up by a few
hours, we continue to be concerned about potential severe thunderstorms
with strong wind fields in place and PBL dewpoints peaking near
60F. We`ll continue to monitor NWP trends. Should see clearing
from west to east later in the afternoon on Saturday with trough
passage. Highs Saturday expected low 80s across VT and mid 70s
across most of nrn NY.

Thereafter, anticipating slightly cooler and drier conditions for
Sunday with highs back in the mid-upper 70s and a period of nwly low-
mid level flow. Strong low-level thermal ridge builds across New
England briefly on Monday. Should be our warmest day of the extended
forecast period with highs back into the mid-80s. Next shortwave
trough approaching from the Great Lakes region Monday night into
Tuesday will bring renewed chances for precipitation (PoPs 50-60%)
and possible tstm activity.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR through the forecast cycle.
A few cumulus with bases 035-050, lifting to 050-080 by
afternoon expected under light/modest northwesterly flow of 6-10
kts with occasional gusts into the 14-18 kt range. After 00Z
skies generally trend clear with light to calm winds.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...Hammond/JMG
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...JMG



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