Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 152033
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
333 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather will continue through tonight ahead of an approaching
system. On Sunday, a snow and sleet mix will move into southern
Vermont just before noon with snow overspreading much of Vermont and
northern New York during the afternoon. Accumulations will generally
be an inch or less with the main focus across southern Vermont. Snow
showers associated with the passage of the upper level trough will
be seen on Monday with upslope locations and higher terrain likely
to see an inch or two while most locations see less than an inch.
These showers will taper off heading into Tuesday with high pressure
building into the region. Drier and near normal temperatures will be
seen for the second half of the work week with the next storm system
to move into the region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 332 PM EST Saturday...Filtered sunshine behind a weak frontal
passage has allowed for temperatures to rebound nicely this
afternoon. Don`t get too attached to the filtered sunshine as a
thick blanket of cloud cover residing to our south has already begun
to march northward. Through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening, temperatures will be pretty slow to fall with a mix of low
and high clouds helping to insulate the surface with temps bottoming
out in the mid teens to mid 20s. While the weather remains quiet
overnight for the North Country, a stacked low pressure system will
steadily move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Heading into
Sunday morning, precipitation chances begin to increase as Atlantic
moisture couples with lift associated with the low as it tracks
across the Mid Atlantic.

A mix of sleet and snow will move into Rutland and Windsor counties
just prior to noon on Sunday. Precipitation type has been very
tricky as subtle changes in the low track determine how quickly
colder air moves in from the north or how far north a warm nose
around 850 mb moves in. Based on the 12Z guidance, thermal profiles
support an hour or so of mixed snow and sleet across southern
Vermont but given the low current low track, the warm nose will
likely reside over central and southern New York. This should allow
the atmosphere to wet-bulb (adiabatically cool) during the early
afternoon across southern Vermont and precipitation will quickly
change over to snow. This snow will then spread northward across
Vermont and northern New York throughout the day. Snowfall
accumulations will generally be less than an inch but up to two
inches will be possible across upslope regions of the Green
Mountains. Snow chances will taper off Sunday night with a push of
drier air ahead of the main trough passage on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 332 PM EST Saturday...Increasing precipitation chances on
Monday as a digging shortwave rotates across the region. The day
will likely start out fairly dry as moisture will be limited, but
precipitation will become more widespread during the afternoon and
evening as moisture increases and best dynamics swing across the
area. Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s, so anticipate
mainly snow through the daylight hours, though it may be warm enough
in the wider valleys for a period of rain in the afternoon. The
shortwave shifts to our east Monday night, with the deepening slow
moving just south and east of Nova Scotia. This will result in winds
turning to the northwest, focusing the snow on the favored upslopes
of the northern Adirondacks and Greens, but then gradually waning as
we head into Tuesday morning. Snow accumulations will be 1 to 3
inches with the highest numbers in those favored upslope regions.
The other concern for Monday night will be gusty winds, as the
pressure gradient tightens between the aforementioned Nova Scotia
low and high pressure approaching from the west. Gusts of 30 to 35
mph will be possible. Lingering snow showers will continue to wane
in coverage Tuesday, with Tuesday afternoon likely dry. We may see a
bit of sunshine in the afternoon as well, but continuing cold
advection on northwest winds will make it a chilly day. Highs will
be in the teens and 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 332 PM EST Saturday...High pressure will settle across the
region during the middle of next week, bringing a stint of dry and
cold weather. However, things change significantly as we head into
the latter half of the week as a high amplitude trough digs into the
Southern Plains. This will spread a deep plume of moisture northward
from the Gulf of Mexico into the Northeast, while low pressure lifts
north west of the Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes.
Precipitation will move in late Thursday/Thursday night, likely
starting out as snow, but warming temperatures will change it over
to rain on Friday, perhaps with a period of wintry mix during the
transition. Precip will continue into Saturday, likely changing back
over to snow as the low moves to our east and winds turn to the
northwest. The other concern with this system will be potentially
gusty south to southeast winds, potentially in the favored downslope
areas in the Greens. This system is still a ways out, so we will
continue to monitor for any changes in the model trends.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...All sites with the exception of KSLK have
trended VFR early this afternoon. KSLK should follow suit
quickly with models indicating low level moisture will is
quickly dissipating. Winds less than 10 knots from the north
will be seen through the forecast period with KSLK and KRUT
switching to the south after 12Z Sunday ahead of the next
system. Any precipitation on Sunday looks to fall after 18Z.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Clay


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