Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 311443

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1043 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

As a surface low tracks to our south and dissipates, we will see all
lingering rain and snow showers dissipate through the morning hours.
Clearing skies are expected through the afternoon hours and give us
a quick glance at sun before clouds build back into the region on
Wednesday. Some rain showers will back into the North Country from
the east on Thursday but will be very light. Quieter weather with
seasonal temperatures in the 40s and 50s will be observed Friday
through weekend and into early next week.


As of 1043 AM EDT Tuesday...The forecast for the rest of today
remains in great shape with a slow clearing expected from
northeast to southwest through the day.

Previous Discussion...A weakening surface low pressure system
is located on the Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego counties in New
York this morning with northeasterly winds being observed across
the North Country. These winds have allowed for some weak
convergence to develop within the Champlain Valley. This has
allowed rain showers to persist early this morning while other
places have begun to dry out. We likely won`t see an end to the
rain showers in the Champlain Valley until the low tracks to our
south and our flow begins switching to the northwest. As this
happens, drier air will finally begin to descend across the
North Country bringing an end to any remaining rain showers by
late this morning. Just as rain chances will be decreasing, our
skies will begin to clear with the influx of drier air. By mid
to late this afternoon we should have just some scattered mid to
high level clouds allowing for some filtered sun to replace the
gloomy weather over the past 48 hours. Temperatures will warm
nicely this afternoon with highs warming into the mid 40s.

Cooler temperatures than the past several days are expected tonight
as skies become mostly clear. With a colder air mass situated on top
of us and light winds during the overnight period, lows will drop
into the lower to upper 20s. Some of the high resolution model
guidance is depicting some fog developing across the favored
locations as many places will drop well below their crossover
temperatures and recent rainfall should help keep the layer near the
ground pretty saturated. Any fog that develops tonight will mix out
shortly after sunrise on Wednesday. Increasing cloud cover is
expected on Wednesday as some precipitation tries to back into the
North Country from the east. Nevertheless, afternoon high
temperatures on Wednesday will once again warm into the lower to mid


As of 314 AM EDT Tuesday...As vertically stacked low pressure system
rotates off the coast of New England south of Nova Scotia through
the Wednesday night and Thursday timeframe. Moisture will back into
our region wrapping around this system. Wednesday night should
mainly be dry, but will have light showers move in from the east on
Thursday and continue into Thursday night. Will mainly see rain
showers with this feature as daytime max temps rise through the 40s,
though could have some light snow showers mixing in. No significant
accumulations are anticipated.


As of 314 AM EDT Tuesday...For Thursday night into Friday morning
moisture advances even further, reaching our most western zones
Thursday night. Could see a change over from rain showers to snow
showers, but still not expecting any significant accumulations. From
Friday night through early Sunday will have a return to drier and
more seasonable weather. Next chance for light showers will be
Sunday afternoon and overnight with a freak frontal passage.
Temperatures will trend above seasonal normals for the entire
extended portion of the forecast.


Through 12Z Wednesday...Ceilings are all over the place this
morning with VFR, MVFR and IFR ceilings being observed across
the North Country. The IFR conditions at KSLK, KMPV and KMSS
should mix out no later than 14Z and trend VFR at or around 16Z.
There is already some improvement being observed at these
terminals which gives us good confidence that ceilings should
continue improving over the next few hours. At the other
locations, ceilings will trend VFR by 14Z and remain VFR through
the forecast period. There is a brief period between 17Z and 22Z
where we could see some gusty northwest winds between 15 and 25
knots before weakening again thereafter.


Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.




LONG TERM...Neiles
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