Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 090840
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The long awaited and much anticipated warm-up has finally reached
the North Country as temperatures are expected to climb into the mid
30s to mid 40s today and in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thursday and
Friday. A weak front will push through the region Thursday night
into Friday morning but it`s beginning to appear the front will
fizzle out as it moves through the region. This should help keep any
rainfall totals to a minimum which will help mitigate any flood
potential given the snow melt expected this week. Cooler
temperatures closer to seasonal normals are expected this weekend
before temperatures begin warming again next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 338 AM EST Tuesday...Temperatures were quite a bit more mild
overnight that originally expected with a thick blanket of cloud
cover helping to insulate the region. Southerly winds in the 5 to 15
mph range acted to keep the surface layer well mixed also helped
temperatures remain on the more mild side. Clearing skies across the
St. Lawrence Valley will allow temperatures out that way to cool off
a few degrees prior to sunrise but otherwise temperatures near or
above freezing are expected at sunrise. This warmer start to the day
should yield warmer temperatures this afternoon than previously
forecasted but cloud cover throughout the day will be the wild card.
While we expect cloud cover to last through the morning hours across
much of the region, models are beginning to hint cloud cover may
break a few hours sooner which could allow temperatures to warm a
few degrees warmer than the mid 30s to lower 40s currently in the
forecast. Nevertheless, the long awaited and much anticipated warm-
up will finally be in full swing today.

Temperatures tonight will be a bit colder than those observed this
morning as we expect decent radiational cooling under light winds
and mostly clear skies. Lows in the mid teens to mid 20s are
expected. Wednesday will see significantly warmer temperatures as we
will be in the heart of the warm air advection. Highs are expected
to climb into lower to mid 50`s region-wide with even the higher
summits climbing into the mid to upper 40s. A strengthening pressure
gradient and channeled flow through the Champlain Valley will allow
winds to increase to 20 to 35 mph across the northern Champlain
Valley on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 338 AM EST Tuesday...Tighter pressure gradient becomes
established over much of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The
south to southwest winds will bring warmer air into the region
during this time period. Far eastern Vermont Wednesday night will
not get the full effects of the pressure gradient and will see lows
in the lower 30s while the remainder of the area should see
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Highs on Thursday will be
in the 50s and some record high temperatures could fall on this day.
Moisture should be increasing within the southwest flow aloft and
cannot rule out the possibility for a few showers Wednesday night,
but they should be confined to northern New York. Later in the day
on Thursday is when we should see a bump up in precipitation
chances, again mainly over northern New York.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 338 AM EST Tuesday...Temperatures well above seasonal normals
will continue Thursday night into Friday as southwest flow aloft
persists over the area. However...a cold front will eventually move
through the region and increase precipitation chances Thursday night
into Friday morning. Precipitation amounts still look like they will
be less than a quarter inch. Given all the expected snowmelt and
greater likelihood of some ice breakup on rivers and streams there
will be rises on area waterways. A greater flood threat would exist
if we were to get more precipitation, but it is not looking that way
at this time. Something we will continue to monitor. Otherwise flow
aloft will change to northwest and colder air should return to the
region Friday night into Saturday. A shortwave trough in the
northwest flow aloft will move down into the area late Friday night
into Saturday morning and bring a chance of snow showers to the
area. This feature will quickly exit the area Saturday afternoon and
a more noticeable surge of colder air is expected behind this
feature with temperatures at or slightly below seasonal normal on
Sunday before a slow warming trend starts to take place on Monday.
Cannot rule out a few snow showers on Sunday over north central and
northeast Vermont with dry weather expected for all areas on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Widespread VFR conditions are being
observed across the North Country with ceilings ranging from
4500 to 6000 ft. We should see a gradual lowering in the
ceilings through 12Z With MVFR ceilings ranging from 1500 to
2500 ft being observed at KSLK, KBTV and KMPV through much of
the late morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday. We continue to
see gusts of southerly wind within the Champlain Valley
terminals but these should cease by 9Z before most terminals see
gusty winds redevelop after 16Z. As the day progresses, winds
will slowly shift from the south, to west and ultimately
northwest by 00Z. We have removed any mention of rain, snow and
freezing rain from the forecast as even if some light
precipitation were to fall, impacts at the terminals would be
negligible.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Clay


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