Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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190
FXUS61 KBTV 060926
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
426 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds with some showers will greet you this morning as a
cold front moves through the North Country. Rainfall associated
with this frontal passage will be light. Winds will be strong
ahead of the front, especially in the St Lawrence valley and
areas with downsloping off the Adirondacks near Malone and some
locations east of the Green Mountains. Drier weather will
return for the tail end of the week, with high temperatures
returning to the 50s on average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Wednesday...The focus today will be the strong
gusty winds ranging 20-40 mph as a 60kt 850mb jet moves through
the region this morning into the early afternoon ahead of a
cold front. Some downsloping is likely east of the Green
Mountains due to orthogonal flow at ridge level. Highest gusts
will be focused along highest elevations, but could see up to 45
mph in portions of the St Lawrence Valley and along the Highway
11 corridor in northern New York as well. Coupled with dry
fuels across southern Vermont, there are some concerns for
increased rates of fire spread should a fire start despite
higher humidity. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below
for more details.

Rainfall associated with the front will be light and likely
amount only up to a few hundredths for most locations. Some
upslope areas and along peaks may do marginally better, but not
much more than 0.1". This will do little to wet parched
vegetation especially across portions of southern Vermont. Winds
decrease this evening as a secondary front drops out of Canada.
This front will keep chances of showers going along northern
slopes extending down to the Adirondacks and central/northern
Vermont until Thursday afternoon when the boundary gets pushed
through the remainder of the North Country.

Temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above seasonal averages due
to strong southerly flow today with highs in the mid/upper 60s
to mid 70s. After a mild night tonight with lows in the 40s to
around 50 degrees, Thursday`s highs will range in the 50s for
most spots with around 60 degrees for southern Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Wednesday...The end of the work week will be
highlighted by a secondary cold front passage which will bring
additional chances for upslope rain/snow showers Friday
afternoon/night along with blustery winds. A mild and mainly dry
Thursday night is expected before the frontal passage on Friday
shifts winds to the WNW with soundings showing limited mixing to
around 925mb, but mixed layer winds still appear to be strong enough
to support gusts topping 25 mph from midday through Friday night.
Some downslope favored locations could see gusts upwards of 40 mph,
but should remain below advisory criteria. Slightly milder than
normal temps are forecast for Friday in the upper 40s to mid 50s,
followed by more seasonal values Friday night in the low/mid 30s.
Winds remain blustery Friday night with wind chills dipping into the
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Wednesday...Surface high pressure and a building
ridge aloft follow for much of the weekend with abundant sunshine
expected for Saturday, but winds will remain brisk through much of
the day with highs sub-normal in the low/mid 40s. Mainly clear skies
and abating winds support a seasonally cool Saturday night in the
mid 20s to low 30s, before a potent system tracking towards the
Great Lakes brings warmer temps back to the region again on Sunday
along with a rising chance for showers through the afternoon. Higher
probabilities for rain come Sunday night into Monday as the
aforementioned system lifts northwest of the region, allowing a warm
front to move through early Monday followed by a cold front Monday
night. Dry and mild conditions look to follow for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Gusty south/southwest winds are the
primary aviation concerns overnight into Weds, along with areas
of wind shear and turbulence. South winds 10 to 15 knots will
become 15 to 20 knots with gusts 20 to 35 knots by morning,
especially northern NY taf sites of SLK/MSS. A weak surface
boundary will increase the threat of scattered showers on Weds
morning, along with a wind shift to the west/northwest by
afternoon. As westerly winds develop cigs will lower to MVFR by
morning at SLK with some brief periods of IFR possible btwn
12z-16z on Weds. Otherwise, mostly VFR prevails at our other
sites with some MVFR cigs possible at MSS/MPV and EFK on Weds.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another period of gusty south to southwest winds are expected on
today with the strongest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 35
to 45 mph expected across the St Lawrence Valley and parts of
northern New York. Winds of 10 to 20 mph with localized gusts of
25 to 35 mph can be anticipated over parts of central/northern
VT on Weds. Some terrain winds for southern Vermont can be
expects with gusts ranging 30-40 mph on eastern slopes of the
Green Mountains. The period of strongest winds look to occur
between 6 AM and Noon with a slow decrease through the
afternoon. A weak boundary will produce a broken line of
showers, but rainfall amounts will be less than a tenth of an
inch and mainly confined to the higher terrain. A wind shift to
the west/northwest is anticipated by late afternoon as another
boundary drop south across our region with cooler temperatures
arriving on Thursday into Friday. Moderate levels of humidity
are expected today and Thurs with mostly cloudy skies. Vermont
has a burn ban in effect through November 11th which prohibits
any debris or open burning.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory continues tonight for south winds 15 to 25
knots and waves 2 to 4 feet. The winds will increase toward
sunrise on Weds with localized gusts up to 30 knots
possible, before decreasing and shifting to the west at 10 to 15
knots by late morning on Wednesday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd/Neiles
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Taber
FIRE WEATHER...Team BTV
MARINE...Team BTV