Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 301926
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
326 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system north of the eastern Great Lakes this
afternoon will slowly track southeast to the New England coastal
waters by Tuesday while weakening. Areas of rain will transition to
snow this evening before ending after midnight. Drier weather is in
store for Tuesday and Wednesday but unsettled weather will return to
the North Country Thursday. High pressure will situate over the
region for Friday and Saturday yielding a very pleasant weather
before another front moves through the region on Sunday.
Temperatures will remain right around seasonal normals through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Vertically stacked low pressure north of
the eastern Great Lakes will continue to plague the North Country`s
weather this evening and through the first half of the night as is
slowly tracks over the region. While doing so it will generally
weaken with fairly widespread rain and snow showers this afternoon
pivoting south/southeast this evening and eventually out of the
region after midnight. Temps have remained a bit cooler than
previously anticipated today, especially east of the Greens where
along and east of the mountains rain has changed to snow in many
locations. Area webcams show some light accumulations below 2000
feet, with up to 2" at the summits. Will likely see additional
accumulations through midnight of a couple inches above 1000ft with
up to 4" possible at the highest peaks.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, the aforementioned upper low
continues to gyre off the New England coast but conditions trend dry
with some clearing expected from north to south through the day.
Unfortunately, persistent northeasterly flow will allow clouds to
build back in during the late afternoon and evening hours with
another mostly cloudy night on tap for Tuesday night. Highs will
range through the 40s tomorrow, and lows 20s tomorrow night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Cool and mostly cloudy conditions will
prevail for this period as the persistent upper low will become
reestablished over the north Country Wednesday, then shifts a bit
eastward off the coast Wednesday night. A few showers will be
possible across the higher terrain during the afternoon hours.
Daytime highs will be in the lower to mid 40s, though north winds
and lack of sunshine will likely make it feel cooler. Precipitation
chances will increase slowly Wednesday night as moisture begins to
pinwheel back toward the region from eastern New England, though
much of any precipitation activity associated with this moisture
should hold off until Thursday. Temperatures will be cold enough for
any precipitation to fall as snow, though accumulations would be
minor.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Monday...Model consensus has improved regarding
potential for moisture and precipitation to shift westward into the
region Thursday into Thursday night as it pivots around low pressure
spinning south of Nova Scotia. It will start out as snow in the
morning will change over to rain as temperatures warm into the 40s.
The low will move away Friday, giving way to ridging coming in from
the west. This will lead to drier and warmer conditions, especially
Saturday-Sunday when temperatures will rise into the lower to mid
50s. A frontal system will approach later Sunday into Monday (models
differ on exact timing though have come into better agreement), and
this will spread another round of showers across the area for early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Mix of VFR and MVFR this afternoon will
trend towards widespread MVFR with local IFR at KSLK later this
evening and continue through the night. Gradual improvement from
north to south is expected after 12Z Tuesday, with all sites VFR
by 18Z. SSE winds of 5-15kts this afternoon trend variable at
less than 5kts tonight, then NNE at 4-7kts tomorrow.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Lahiff


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