000
FXUS61 KBTV 281109
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
709 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to provide the North Country with
warm and dry weather through most of the upcoming week.
Temperatures will be well into the 80s today, with slightly
cooler readings on Monday, before much above normal values
return for mid to late week. A cold front will increase the
chances for precipitation on Friday, but otherwise a dry week
is anticipated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 701 AM EDT Sunday...After a morning low of 52F here at
BTV, temps are climbing 5 degrees per hour with value of 57F as
of 7 AM. Expect a sharp 5 to 7 degree per hour rise in hourly
temps acrs the fa this morning, associated with plenty of
sunshine and very dry airmass in place. Afternoon highs range
from the upper 70s/lower 80s mtns to mid/upper 80s valleys with
a few spot nearing 90F by late afternoon. All covered well in
crnt fcst with no significant changes in this update.

Previous discussion below:
Very quiet wx prevails as a ridge of high pres aloft and at the
sfc continues to dominate our region. Water vapor shows strong
subsidence acrs our cwa, which wl result in sunny skies again
today. Progged 925mb temps warm another 2 to 3C, with values in
the 20-22C range, supporting highs 82 to 88F acrs the fa, with a
few warmer valley cities near 90F. Based on dwpts/min rh values
from Saturday, have utilized the 10th percentile NBM dwpts
again today, which supports min rh values in the 22% to 30%
range. Given the very dry airmass in place and full sunshine,
expect temps to warm quickly this morning for any individuals
planning outdoor activities. Tonight, sfc high pres nosing south
from eastern Canada wl help push a weak backdoor cold frnt acrs
our VT zns. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s to mid 50s.
This boundary wl shift our winds to the north/northeast
overnight with slightly cooler 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles
on Monday. However, moisture is nonexistence with this boundary,
so not anticipating any precip, just a wind shift with cooler
values on Monday. Progged 925mb temps btwn 14C NEK to 18C
southern SLV/western Dacks support highs low/mid 70s NEK to l/m
80s southern SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...Surface flow will turn southerly throughout
the night Monday while ridging strengthens overtop of the forecast
area. This will result in mostly clear skies and lows seasonably
mild in the 40s east of the Greens in the Adirondacks, 50s
elsewhere. Temperatures will continue to increase Tuesday with winds
out of the southwest under continued mostly sunny skies and mixing
up to 850-925mb. Highs will be about 10 degrees above normal in the
lower 80s, and minimum relative humidity values will be in the
30-40% range, making for a dry heat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...Ridging continues to build into late week
with mixing potentially up to 750-700mb. Temperatures in the mid- to
upper 80s Wednesday will turn to the mid-80s to lower 90s Thursday.
This could break or tie record highs, including at the Burlington
International Airport, where the record is 90 F from 2013 and our
forecast is 91 F. Plan for unusual warmth for late May/early June;
frequent breaks, extra hydration, and checking in with heat
sensitive populations are recommended. High pressure should keep us
dry, but can`t rule out a pinprick thunderstorm across higher
terrain in the afternoons. Overall, lack of moisture and forcing
will really limit any chance of precipitation we have.

Friday onward, uncertainty increases as we try to determine when the
blocked pattern breaks down. Most likely scenario at this time is
that the pattern changes at the end of the work week/start of the
weekend with a backdoor front pushing high pressure south and
providing cooler temperatures and our first real chance of any
rainfall. Ranges of possible high temperatures increase Friday
through Sunday to about 10 degrees. We`re forecasting highs Friday
in the lower to mid-80s, then as cool as the 70s for the weekend.
PoPs will be in the 15-30% range Friday, and precipitation is not
expected to be widespread or long-lived, perhaps some showers and
thunderstorms along the front as it runs into dry air and is
followed by more dry air. A pretty short window for our only
expected real expected precip over the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...High pressure both aloft and at the
surface will continue to provide all our taf sites with clear
skies and VFR for the next 24 hours. Trrn influenced winds this
morning, becoming southwest to northwest at 4 to 8 knots by
midday, except lake breeze at PBG with southeast winds likely.
As a backdoor front crosses our taf sites overnight, expect
north to northeast winds at 3 to 6 knots.

Outlook...

Memorial Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Taber