Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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190 FXUS61 KBTV 060926 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 426 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty winds with some showers will greet you this morning as a cold front moves through the North Country. Rainfall associated with this frontal passage will be light. Winds will be strong ahead of the front, especially in the St Lawrence valley and areas with downsloping off the Adirondacks near Malone and some locations east of the Green Mountains. Drier weather will return for the tail end of the week, with high temperatures returning to the 50s on average. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 410 AM EST Wednesday...The focus today will be the strong gusty winds ranging 20-40 mph as a 60kt 850mb jet moves through the region this morning into the early afternoon ahead of a cold front. Some downsloping is likely east of the Green Mountains due to orthogonal flow at ridge level. Highest gusts will be focused along highest elevations, but could see up to 45 mph in portions of the St Lawrence Valley and along the Highway 11 corridor in northern New York as well. Coupled with dry fuels across southern Vermont, there are some concerns for increased rates of fire spread should a fire start despite higher humidity. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details. Rainfall associated with the front will be light and likely amount only up to a few hundredths for most locations. Some upslope areas and along peaks may do marginally better, but not much more than 0.1". This will do little to wet parched vegetation especially across portions of southern Vermont. Winds decrease this evening as a secondary front drops out of Canada. This front will keep chances of showers going along northern slopes extending down to the Adirondacks and central/northern Vermont until Thursday afternoon when the boundary gets pushed through the remainder of the North Country. Temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above seasonal averages due to strong southerly flow today with highs in the mid/upper 60s to mid 70s. After a mild night tonight with lows in the 40s to around 50 degrees, Thursday`s highs will range in the 50s for most spots with around 60 degrees for southern Vermont. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 410 AM EST Wednesday...The end of the work week will be highlighted by a secondary cold front passage which will bring additional chances for upslope rain/snow showers Friday afternoon/night along with blustery winds. A mild and mainly dry Thursday night is expected before the frontal passage on Friday shifts winds to the WNW with soundings showing limited mixing to around 925mb, but mixed layer winds still appear to be strong enough to support gusts topping 25 mph from midday through Friday night. Some downslope favored locations could see gusts upwards of 40 mph, but should remain below advisory criteria. Slightly milder than normal temps are forecast for Friday in the upper 40s to mid 50s, followed by more seasonal values Friday night in the low/mid 30s. Winds remain blustery Friday night with wind chills dipping into the 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 410 AM EST Wednesday...Surface high pressure and a building ridge aloft follow for much of the weekend with abundant sunshine expected for Saturday, but winds will remain brisk through much of the day with highs sub-normal in the low/mid 40s. Mainly clear skies and abating winds support a seasonally cool Saturday night in the mid 20s to low 30s, before a potent system tracking towards the Great Lakes brings warmer temps back to the region again on Sunday along with a rising chance for showers through the afternoon. Higher probabilities for rain come Sunday night into Monday as the aforementioned system lifts northwest of the region, allowing a warm front to move through early Monday followed by a cold front Monday night. Dry and mild conditions look to follow for Tuesday. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Gusty south/southwest winds are the primary aviation concerns overnight into Weds, along with areas of wind shear and turbulence. South winds 10 to 15 knots will become 15 to 20 knots with gusts 20 to 35 knots by morning, especially northern NY taf sites of SLK/MSS. A weak surface boundary will increase the threat of scattered showers on Weds morning, along with a wind shift to the west/northwest by afternoon. As westerly winds develop cigs will lower to MVFR by morning at SLK with some brief periods of IFR possible btwn 12z-16z on Weds. Otherwise, mostly VFR prevails at our other sites with some MVFR cigs possible at MSS/MPV and EFK on Weds. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Another period of gusty south to southwest winds are expected on today with the strongest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph expected across the St Lawrence Valley and parts of northern New York. Winds of 10 to 20 mph with localized gusts of 25 to 35 mph can be anticipated over parts of central/northern VT on Weds. Some terrain winds for southern Vermont can be expects with gusts ranging 30-40 mph on eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. The period of strongest winds look to occur between 6 AM and Noon with a slow decrease through the afternoon. A weak boundary will produce a broken line of showers, but rainfall amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch and mainly confined to the higher terrain. A wind shift to the west/northwest is anticipated by late afternoon as another boundary drop south across our region with cooler temperatures arriving on Thursday into Friday. Moderate levels of humidity are expected today and Thurs with mostly cloudy skies. Vermont has a burn ban in effect through November 11th which prohibits any debris or open burning. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory continues tonight for south winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 2 to 4 feet. The winds will increase toward sunrise on Weds with localized gusts up to 30 knots possible, before decreasing and shifting to the west at 10 to 15 knots by late morning on Wednesday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd/Neiles NEAR TERM...Boyd SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Taber FIRE WEATHER...Team BTV MARINE...Team BTV