Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 050232
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1032 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Isaias will bring heavy rain to the North Country
this afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts between 1 and 4 inches
will be common with the highest rainfall likely to occur over the
eastern Adirondacks into the Champlain Valley. Gusty winds between
35 and 55 mph will be likely this evening as the storm tracks
through Vermont. Conditions will quickly improve on Wednesday as
Isaias shifts to the northeast and drier air filters in from the
west. Seasonal temperatures are expected into the weekend with dry
conditions also expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1032 PM EDT Tuesday...Large scale update to cancel Flash
Flood and Wind Advisory across the area as the now remnants of
TS Isaias exit into southern Quebec. Still a few spots of high
water/ponding across the area, and a flood warning remains in
effect for the E. Branch of the Ausable River at Au Sable Forks,
NY. However, the threat of additional flooding and strong wind
gusts has largely ended across the region. For the remainder of
tonight expect winds to continue to slowly abate as they back to
south/southwesterly toward morning under scattered to broken
clouds and temperatures holding in the 60s. A few light showers
will remain possible in the moist southwesterly flow on the
flank of the departing tropical system. Have a great night.

Excerpts from prior discussion...
The storm exits to the north after midnight tonight with
rapidly improving conditions expected. While we could see a few
showers tied to the higher terrain through Wednesday morning,
skies will quickly clear during the afternoon hours as drier air
moves back into the region. Seasonal temperatures are expected
with decreasing dewpoints which should yield a very nice day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 357 PM EDT Tuesday...Dry west to southwest flow aloft
will exist Thursday into Thursday night. No precipitation is
expected with highs right around seasonal normals...70s to
around 80. Lows Thursday night will generally be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 357 PM EDT Tuesday...Flow aloft transitions to the west
and northwest Friday through Sunday. This will allow high
pressure to build into the region and as a result...no
precipitation is expected during this time period. There will be
a gradual warming trend taking place with highs a couple of
degrees warmer than the previous day. By Sunday all areas should
see highs in the 80s. Looking a little unsettled for the start
of next week as a series of shortwave troughs move into the
region and enhance the potential for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...A wide mix of aviation conditions
ongoing as Tropical Storm Isaias quickly lifts north. Periods of
moderate to heavy rain reducing vsby to 2-5 SM and cigs of 500
to 1500 ft agl exist until about 04Z before precipitation scours
out. After 04Z, low ceilings should linger until low-level
moisture clears out after 07Z-10Z. Ceilings quickly lift and
clear beyond 12Z with all becoming VFR.

Tricky wind forecast as cyclone moves directly overhead. Areas east,
KMPV and KRUT will see an east wind transition towards south and
then southwest in a short 3 to 6 hour window. Remaining TAF
sites west of the cyclone center should see north winds become
northwesterly and then southwesterly. Strongest winds to occur
over the next 4 to 6 hours with the stronger gusts up to 35
knots possible at KRUT/KPBG/KBTV. Will also see sharp
directional shear for the next few hours, making for turbulent
flight conditions due to 40 kt mid-level easterlies that lift
north out of our area after 01Z-03Z. Then, winds gradually
subsiding to 7 to 14 knots sustained, especially after 06Z.
After 15Z, mixing should allow brief 20 knot gusts to return.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1032 PM EDT Tuesday...West to northwest winds of 15 to 25
knots with occasional gusts to 30 knots will continue to slowly
abate across open waters and bays/inlets with
northerly/westerly exposures over the next few hours as the
remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias exit into southern Canada.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...JMG/Clay
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Evenson/Haynes
MARINE...JMG



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