857
FXUS61 KBUF 121755
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
155 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid today, with a chance of a few afternoon showers or a
thunderstorm during peak heating. A cold front will near the region
on Sunday with widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which
could produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Drier
weather returns Monday, with somewhat cooler temperatures and less
humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Heat and humidity will build this afternoon. We should see mercury
readings reach the mid-upper 80s with low 90s in the Genesee Valley
and the lake plains south of Lake Ontario. Dewpoints are forecast in
the upper 60s to near 70F. This will result in heat indices in the
mid to upper 90s along the lake plains, Genesee Valley, and northern
Finger Lakes. Heat advisories have been hoisted for these areas.
That said...there is one other thing to watch as the heat builds
this afternoon, CAMs show convection firing up again just east of
the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region after 19Z.

Otherwise...muggy and mild tonight ahead of the approaching trough
and cold front. There will be a continued chance of showers or a
thunderstorm. Air conditioner will definitely be cranking as temps
will `not` drop very far, with many locales in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure behind a cold front will bring fair weather,
and lowering dewpoints Monday and Tuesday.

As this surface high shifts eastward Wednesday a southernly return
flow of very warm and humid air will bring the return of
uncomfortable conditions (heat index values upper 80s to lower 90s)
with a small chance for an afternoon thunderstorm.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A humid (PWATS 1.75") and a very warm airmass (surface temperatures
in the 80s) Thursday will be accompanied with showers and
thunderstorms upon a warm front...with additional lift for storm
development supported by the passage of a mid level shortwave
trough.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue Thursday night
through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front.

Uncertainty increases to start next weekend as a few 12Z models
depict a slower passage to this cold front with a surface wave upon
which would linger showers and thunderstorms into the start of next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR for much of the daytime hours, as the heat builds there will be
a renewed chance for a few showers or thunderstorms this afternoon
into the early evening, especially from the Finger Lakes eastward.
Any heavier shower or thunderstorm will again have the possibility
of producing a localized brief period of IFR or below conditions.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night...Showers and thunderstorms likely with
restrictions possible.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and minimal wave action today, there will be a chance of
an isolated shower or thunderstorm. A slow moving cold front will
bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday through
Sunday night. Winds pick up a bit ahead and with the front but
remain well below any headline criteria.

Winds remain fairly light Sunday night behind the front through
Tuesday as high pressure builds in across the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>006-010-
     011-013-014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...AR/TMA
MARINE...AR