Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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146 FXUS61 KBUF 081115 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 615 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Expect an increase in clouds, gusty winds and a few showers, especially across the eastern portions of the region as another weak cold front slides southeast across the area. High pressure will then rebuild into the lower Great Lakes tonight through Saturday, supporting a return of dry weather, clear skies. The next chance for rain will be late Sunday through Monday as low pressure and its associated fronts slide across the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Outside of a few areas of low clouds and fog across eastern Lake Ontario and the Southern Tier this morning, clear skies prevail as high pressure lies across the Ohio Valley. Breezy conditions have begun across the area this morning as low pressure to the north has tightened the pressure gradient. As today progresses, a mid-level shortwave trough will amplify the longwave trough across Quebec and northern New England, causing yet another weak cold front to slide southeast across the area this afternoon. As this front slides across the region, expect an increase in cloud cover as well as an increase in rain chances across the areas east of Wayne county. With the introduction of the colder airmass, some lake enhancement also cannot be ruled out east of Lake Ontario this afternoon before moving southeast of Lake Ontario due to a shift in wind direction. In addition to the clouds and showers today, expect breezy conditions ahead of the frontal passage and along it supporting widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph along with a few 40 mph gusts possible near the shores of Lake Ontario and Erie. Tonight high pressure will begin to build east across the Great Lakes and last through Saturday. Overall this will not only cause the shower chances to diminish but also the pressure gradient to weaken supporting winds to lighten. Clear skies tonight will support ample radiational cooling resulting in overnight lows dropping down into the mid to upper 20s across the higher terrain and the upper 20s to low 30s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure over our region Saturday night will advance eastward, with a light southerly flow developing across WNY. This will allow for another chilly night across eastern zones, where temperatures will quickly cool, and lower in to the lower to mid 20s. Across western zones, the return southerly flow and increase in cloud cover will slow the radiational cooling, with lows in the mid and upper 30s. Sunday this southerly flow will strengthening, and continued moist air advection will support thickening clouds...that will eventually yield rain showers through the day. While the day may start dry, lowering condensation pressure deficits, and convergence along a 40 to 45 knot LLJ, and additional lift from the arrival of the right entrance region of a 300 hPa 90 knot jet all combined with the increase moisture/ lower level saturation will support a period of rain moving across our region later Sunday and Sunday night. This rain will be beneficial since most of our region has been placed in a D0 on the drought monitor, but unfortunately overall precipitation totals look to range from just a tenth or two...upwards to a half an inch locally across the Southern Tier and southern Tug Hill region. Sunday night a cold front will pass across our region, sending the deeper moisture eastward. Cold air advection and westerly flow will linger upslope showers east of the Lakes...that will become lake enhanced late as 850 hPa temperatures lower to the low single digits Celsius. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Behind the departing front and surface low, some lake enhanced/effect and upslope showers will be possible down wind of both lakes starting Monday morning. This will occur as temperatures aloft cool to the low single digits at 850 hPa. As of now, the airmass behind the front doesn`t look to cold, and with the lake water sfc temperatures around 14c, the instability between the 850 hPa to lake sfc layer may only promote a weak lake response. A ridge building into the region fairly quickly may also help to limit the response off of the lakes as well. Any lingering lake showers should end by Tuesday afternoon/evening behind a quick passing shortwave trough. This ridge will remain over our region Wednesday, with a tightening pressure gradient between the ridge and a deepening surface low over the Northern Plains providing for gusty south-southwest winds through the day. Any rain with this upstream system should hold off until after sunset Wednesday with a stout 500 hPa ridge axis over our region. Shower potential will increase Wednesday night into Thursday as a trough approaches and crosses the region. Guidance is still very much split on the different aspects of the setup with the trough, including: area of greatest forcing, timing and placement of synoptic features. The deterministic models are starting to converge upon rain ahead of this trough reaching our region Wednesday night and Thursday. Temperatures generally remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the period, except for Tuesday when temperatures cool a few degrees to near normal. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Outside of a few areas of low level clouds and fog across the western Southern Tier and the Tug Hill, mainly VFR skies prevail this morning. Within the areas of fog, impacting KJHW, expect IFR CIGS and VSBYS. Fog will lift shortly after daybreak. Expect increasing cloud cover and a few lake enhanced showers to move southeast across the area due to a passing weak cold front this afternoon. Showers will initially be east of Lake Ontario before shifting southeast of Lake Ontario spanning west towards KROC. Within these showers, CIGS will lower to MVFR east and southeast of Lake Ontario this afternoon. Additionally today, ahead of the frontal passage and along it, winds will be quite breezy today with winds gusting to 20-30 knots with possible 35 knot gusts closer to the Lake Erie and Ontario shores. Outlook... Saturday...VFR. Sunday...MVFR/IFR with showers. Monday...MVFR with showers likely. Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .MARINE... An expansive ridge of high pressure will remain in place from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley through the first half of today. Meanwhile, a trough will amplify over Quebec and New England, pushing another cold front southeast across Lake Ontario. Westerly winds will freshen quickly on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario early this morning ahead of the cold front, producing high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on both lakes today with sustained winds approaching 30 knots. Winds will become northwest later this afternoon and night, with winds gradually diminishing by Saturday morning. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LOZ043>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EAJ NEAR TERM...EAJ SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...SW/Thomas AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...EAJ/Hitchcock