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000
FXUS61 KBUF 181732
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
132 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure extending from the Northeast to the Lower Great
Lakes will provide an extended period of warm and mainly dry
weather which will last into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure and a mid-level ridge axis across Lake Erie
will expand across Western New York tonight and Wednesday. This will
provide fair and warm weather, with mostly clear skies. Temperatures
will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. There
will be a weak lake breeze, with the coolest temperatures near the
immediate lakeshores. 850mb temperatures 2-3C warmer Wednesday,
supporting highs about 4-5F degrees warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Axis of the mid-level ridge will remain overhead Wednesday night
while flattening out a bit. It appears right now that it will be a
dry night and mild. Mercury readings only falling back into the
50s to low 60s by Thursday morning.

Thursday, the mid-level ridge to our south will then direct a couple
of convectively augmented shortwaves around its perimeter. Low
confidence on placement and timing of these ridge riders, it`s
likely that most of the time will be dry before daytime instability
can build enough to produce a few storms. Model guidance packages
are not handling these features at all very well, which is expected.
The NAM, for what it`s worth does show roughly 450 to 500 J/KG of
CAPE but the ECMWF/GFS shows very little to almost nothing. With
that said, have low end chance POPs for now with very little change
from previous forecasts. The best chance for a storm, if any at
all, will be well inland away from the influence of the lakes.

Thursday night through Friday, little change anticipated as embedded
shortwaves promote low end chance POPs. The best chances for a storm
appears to be from the Genesee valley into the North Country right
now. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above normal through the
end of the week with highs ticking up into the low 80s, cooler near
the lakes

Friday night, a stronger shortwave is being advertised to drop
southeast towards the Lower Lakes which this might be our best shot
at a shower. Only time will tell with these ridge riders. Stay
tuned.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Similar to the end of the work week, a few more shortwaves will spin
across the northern periphery of the upper level ridge acting to
weaken the ridging pattern both days this weekend. With the passage
of each of the shortwaves, showers and afternoon thunderstorms will
be possible. In terms of temperatures, above normal temperatures
will continue with highs in the mid to upper 70s each day this
weekend.

The ridge attempts to re-establish Monday, acting to diminish the
convection possibilities. Temperatures will begin to cool off just a
tad Monday with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will maintain VFR conditions through Wednesday. Weak
lake breeze this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...VFR.
Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the Lower Great Lakes will keep a weak gradient
in place resulting in light and variable winds through the end of
the week. Expect a brief uptick in winds during the afternoon hours
due to lake breeze circulations.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/HSK
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Apffel/HSK
MARINE...Apffel/HSK