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652
FXUS61 KBUF 132312
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
612 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
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Minor changes to POPS and snow amounts for the modest snowfall
tonight.

Trending slightly colder for the middle of next week that may
complicate precipitation type.
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&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
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1) Snowfall arriving this evening and lingers overnight with
accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches for most of Western and
Central NY.

2) Warming temperatures may cause movement of ice on area creeks and
streams next week.

3) Active pattern returns middle of next week with chances for rain
and snow.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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KEY MESSAGE 1...Snowfall arriving this evening and lingers overnight
with accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches for most of Western and
Central NY.

A progressive clipper system moving out of the Upper Peninsula early
this afternoon will continue to move southeast towards Western NY,
arriving this evening and producing a brief period of snow. Latest
hi-res guidance has shown a slight deepening/shift to the southwest
with the associated shortwave as it passes over the northern Great
Lakes that would support higher totals across Western NY, mainly the
Boston Hills, from the previous forecast package. Deep layer
moisture and support will be rather short-lived with this system as
synoptic moisture aloft will dissipate early Saturday morning from
west to east. Lingering low-level moisture will continue to be
supportive of light snow showers continuing through midday Saturday.

Snowfall totals will be modest with this system, a dusting to an
inch or two in most locations and perhaps up to 3" across the Tug
Hill Plateau. Additionally, blustery winds up to 25-30 mph with the
trough passage tonight may also lead to a short period of blowing
snow with any fresh snowpack in place.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming temperatures may cause movement of ice on
area creeks and streams next week.

Height rises are expected across much of the central CONUS early in
the week behind the surface low moving off the Carolina coast and
northern stream shortwave passing across northern NY Sunday night. A
gradual rise in 850mb temps since Saturday will finally climb above
0 degC supportive of above normal temperatures for mid-February.
While not impressively warm, highs generally around 40 degF early
next week will support some melting of the snowpack leading to
increasing water levels on area streams and creeks. Latest NBM
temperatures would suggest 200 to 300 thawing degree hours across
western NY which is less than ideal, but will still need to be
monitored for ice jam flooding, especially with the vast amount of
ice present with this long stretch of frigid temperatures over the
past few weeks. Latest NAEFS guidance does show a few of the Buffalo
creeks approaching Action Stage by the middle of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Active pattern returns middle of next week with
chances for rain and snow.

A deep troughing pattern along the Pacific coast early next week
will eject out multiple waves across the central CONUS and into the
lower Great Lake region. At this time, ensemble guidance shows mixed
solutions as far as the surface low track that will have notable
impacts on eventual precipitation type across the western NY. NBM
has been showing recent trends towards those colder solutions with
temperatures and precipitation type, likely tied to the strength and
expanse of the surface high over the Hudson Bay. Will need to
continue to monitor the evolution of this pattern to see if models
can converge towards a dominant precip type, but for right now have
a mix of rain/snow for much of the region. If precipitation type
could remain primarily as rainfall, that would further complicate
the situation with any swollen creeks and streams after the warm up
earlier in the week.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A sharp mid level trough and associated surface trough will move
southeast across the area this evening through the early overnight,
with a brief period of snow moving from northwest to southeast
across the region. VSBY will drop into the 1/2SM to 2SM range for a
few hours at any given location as the system moves through, with
CIGS also dropping to MVFR. Following the brief period of steady
snow, a few light snow showers will linger overnight with spotty
MVFR/IFR VSBY.

The snow showers will gradually diminish in coverage overnight, with
the last of the snow ending Saturday morning. MVFR CIGS will remain
fairly widespread overnight through Saturday as low level moisture
becomes trapped beneath a steepening subsidence inversion. Some IFR
will develop across higher terrain, especially overnight through
Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...A low chance of snow showers east of
Lake Ontario Sunday night...otherwise mainly VFR.

Wednesday...Deterioration to MVFR/IFR with rain and/or snow becoming
likely.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Southwest winds will veer WNW overnight as a clipper system passes
just north of the region. This will produce very choppy conditions
on Lake Ontario, although the higher 4+ foot waves will remain
largely in offshore waters.

Surface high pressure builds into the lower great Lakes Saturday
bringing lighter winds through Saturday night. Another fast moving
clipper dives towards the region Sunday which may bring a brief
period of near Small Craft conditions.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are
ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.
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&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers/Hitchcock
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...AR/Hitchcock