Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 181732 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 132 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure extending from the Northeast to the Lower Great Lakes will provide an extended period of warm and mainly dry weather which will last into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure and a mid-level ridge axis across Lake Erie will expand across Western New York tonight and Wednesday. This will provide fair and warm weather, with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. There will be a weak lake breeze, with the coolest temperatures near the immediate lakeshores. 850mb temperatures 2-3C warmer Wednesday, supporting highs about 4-5F degrees warmer. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Axis of the mid-level ridge will remain overhead Wednesday night while flattening out a bit. It appears right now that it will be a dry night and mild. Mercury readings only falling back into the 50s to low 60s by Thursday morning. Thursday, the mid-level ridge to our south will then direct a couple of convectively augmented shortwaves around its perimeter. Low confidence on placement and timing of these ridge riders, it`s likely that most of the time will be dry before daytime instability can build enough to produce a few storms. Model guidance packages are not handling these features at all very well, which is expected. The NAM, for what it`s worth does show roughly 450 to 500 J/KG of CAPE but the ECMWF/GFS shows very little to almost nothing. With that said, have low end chance POPs for now with very little change from previous forecasts. The best chance for a storm, if any at all, will be well inland away from the influence of the lakes. Thursday night through Friday, little change anticipated as embedded shortwaves promote low end chance POPs. The best chances for a storm appears to be from the Genesee valley into the North Country right now. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the week with highs ticking up into the low 80s, cooler near the lakes Friday night, a stronger shortwave is being advertised to drop southeast towards the Lower Lakes which this might be our best shot at a shower. Only time will tell with these ridge riders. Stay tuned. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Similar to the end of the work week, a few more shortwaves will spin across the northern periphery of the upper level ridge acting to weaken the ridging pattern both days this weekend. With the passage of each of the shortwaves, showers and afternoon thunderstorms will be possible. In terms of temperatures, above normal temperatures will continue with highs in the mid to upper 70s each day this weekend. The ridge attempts to re-establish Monday, acting to diminish the convection possibilities. Temperatures will begin to cool off just a tad Monday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will maintain VFR conditions through Wednesday. Weak lake breeze this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday night...VFR. Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... High pressure over the Lower Great Lakes will keep a weak gradient in place resulting in light and variable winds through the end of the week. Expect a brief uptick in winds during the afternoon hours due to lake breeze circulations. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel/HSK NEAR TERM...Apffel SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...Apffel/HSK MARINE...Apffel/HSK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.