606
FXUS63 KFGF 100417
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1117 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms in western Minnesota Friday
  afternoon.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Upstream radars are still not overly impressive, but a light
shower could clip northwest Minnesota late tonight into Friday
morning. The line of cloud cover over northeast North Dakota
will continue to drop slowly southeast through the FA overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The next short wave and cold front are progressing across
southern Manitoba. Overall, not too much will be expected as
these pass through this evening. There is a thin band of clouds,
which could produce an isolated shower or two. However, upstream
radar returns are not all that impressive, so may be able to
remove these if that trend continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Fairly quiet for the first part of the night, but a shortwave
coming into Manitoba and Ontario over the top of the ridge could
bring some increasing cloud cover and some light shower activity
to northwestern MN later tonight. The shortwave will dig into
MN/WI during the day tomorrow, bringing some decent broad lift
over our eastern tier of counties into the afternoon. While much
will depend on how morning showers play out and how much cloud
cover remains, there is at least a 40 to 50 percent chance for
500 J/kg of CAPE by tomorrow afternoon. Deep layer bulk shear
will be 30 kts at best, so not expecting any severe potential,
but could see some impacts from lightning and very small hail
across northwestern and west central MN. Winds will be breezy
across much of the CWA as the shortwave comes down and some cold
air advection brings some gusts up to 35 mph at times.

Westerly surface winds and the warm sector of the surface low
will bring very toasty readings for Saturday, and some spots in
the RRV could push 80 degrees. A bit cooler Sunday as a trough
axis/cold front passes through. The next significant trough
starts to move into the western Plains on Tuesday, coming out in
some manner on Wednesday although clusters are still all over
the place. Still could see showers and a chance for
thunderstorms, but specifics on timing and strength too soon to
nail down at this point. Temps will cool down to near or just
below seasonal averages as the more active weather returns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The 00z set of TAFs continues to look on track. Really no
impacts are expected overnight through mid Friday morning.
Northwest winds will really ramp up Friday morning, will be
strongest through the afternoon, then quickly drop off again
early Friday evening. There could be some cumulus development
late Friday morning into the early afternoon, but mainly at KTVF
and KBJI. Along with this cumulus development mainly east of
the Red River Valley, a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm
could also form. Due to the isolated nature of this, did not
mention with this set of TAFs.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Godon