522
FXUS63 KFGF 092327
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
627 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms in western Minnesota Friday
  afternoon.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The next short wave and cold front are progressing across
southern Manitoba. Overall, not too much will be expected as
these pass through this evening. There is a thin band of clouds,
which could produce an isolated shower or two. However, upstream
radar returns are not all that impressive, so may be able to
remove these if that trend continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Fairly quiet for the first part of the night, but a shortwave
coming into Manitoba and Ontario over the top of the ridge could
bring some increasing cloud cover and some light shower activity
to northwestern MN later tonight. The shortwave will dig into
MN/WI during the day tomorrow, bringing some decent broad lift
over our eastern tier of counties into the afternoon. While much
will depend on how morning showers play out and how much cloud
cover remains, there is at least a 40 to 50 percent chance for
500 J/kg of CAPE by tomorrow afternoon. Deep layer bulk shear
will be 30 kts at best, so not expecting any severe potential,
but could see some impacts from lightning and very small hail
across northwestern and west central MN. Winds will be breezy
across much of the CWA as the shortwave comes down and some cold
air advection brings some gusts up to 35 mph at times.

Westerly surface winds and the warm sector of the surface low
will bring very toasty readings for Saturday, and some spots in
the RRV could push 80 degrees. A bit cooler Sunday as a trough
axis/cold front passes through. The next significant trough
starts to move into the western Plains on Tuesday, coming out in
some manner on Wednesday although clusters are still all over
the place. Still could see showers and a chance for
thunderstorms, but specifics on timing and strength too soon to
nail down at this point. Temps will cool down to near or just
below seasonal averages as the more active weather returns.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Expecting a relatively narrow band of ~6000 foot high clouds to
drop southeast through the area this evening. There may be a
few showers associated with this band of clouds, but at this
point this looks pretty unlikely. Otherwise, as the front moves
through overnight into Friday morning, light winds will turn
west, then northwest. Friday afternoon look to become pretty
windy.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Godon