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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

000
FXUS66 KHNX 280750
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1250 AM PDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes
valid 6 PM this evening through 6 AM Monday morning.

2. Gusty winds in the Mojave Desert slopes can be expected for
the next couple of evenings, or until Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

3. High temperatures today are expected to be at least a few
degrees warmer than yesterday, or closer to seasonal averages.

4. Dry and warming conditions are expected to continue this
week, with highs around 8 to 12 degrees above normal by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Weak upper-level ridging will build into Central California
today with a warming trend and dry conditions. While we will
remain under the ridge, a Pacific Northwest trough will continue
for the next couple of days. This pattern is favorable for a
sufficient gradient to allow gusty winds through the passes and
canyons during the early evening hours until the early morning
hours for the next couple of days, or through Tuesday evening
into Wednesday morning. Temperatures won`t be unseasonably warm
at least through the middle of this week, but will rise to
roughly 10 degrees above average by the end of this week. As it
stands, the probability of another 90-degree reading is around
40 to 50 percent for the Central Valley and Kern County desert
on Friday and Saturday.

As for winds, the probability for a gust of 45 mph is around 70
to 90 percent for the Mojave Desert slopes in eastern Kern
County during this evening into Monday morning, based on latest
high resolution and blended ensemble guidance. This is similar
to the data we were seeing in this area at this time last night.
Therefore, we will launch another Wind Advisory for this area
later tonight. The probabilistic data for gusty winds in this
area will remain similar for the next couple of evenings, or
Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. This makes sense, given
the overall weather pattern remains similar for both the
surface and upper-levels. Additionally, this is a pattern
typical of mid-spring.

A potential pattern shift arrives next Sunday or the following
week, based on the latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction
Center which for the past couple of days has been showing a
slight tilt in the odds for above average precipitation coupled
with below average temperatures. In any case, it appears
typical spring weather will continue.

&&


.AVIATION...Gusty winds will redevelop along the Mojave Desert
slopes in eastern Kern County this evening until Monday morning
with gusts of 35 to 45 kts. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail throughout Central California for at least the next 24
hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ338.
&&

$$

BSO/DCH

weather.gov/hanford