National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KVEF 121152
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
452 AM PDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...One more day of well-above-average temperatures expected
today before an approaching area of low pressure drops temperatures
back to below-average this weekend and into the start of the work
week. Gusty south winds will pick up this afternoon with stronger
speeds expected on Saturday. An active pattern throughout the
remainder of the week will keep temperatures mild for this time of
year.
&&


.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.

Today will be the final day of temperatures well-above average for
the forecast period, with high temperatures ranging 9 to 11 degrees
above seasonal averages. Temperatures will start to drop this
evening as a closed low pushes into Baja California and weakens into
an open wave before it pushes through central Arizona. This process
will drop heights across the Desert Southwest. This height drop will
be exacerbated by an additional incoming closed low sliding
southward along the California Coast, which will keep temperatures
below-average through the weekend.

The greatest impact from these systems will be gusty winds. Gusty
south winds will pick up across the forecast area this afternoon
with speeds between 25 and 35 mph. Gusts above 40 mph will be
isolated and confined to the higher elevations. On Saturday, speeds
will be stronger as the center of the low moves inland. There
remains a bit of uncertainty regarding how strong winds will be on
Saturday. The HREF is not nearly as bullish as the NBMv4.1, though
the HREF only extends out to 5pm on Saturday at this time. As such,
we have opted to leave the High Wind Watches in place for Inyo,
Esmeralda, and central Nye counties from 11am to 8pm on Saturday,
and did not make any decisions on headlines for the remainder of the
forecast area. Regardless, expect gusty south winds on Saturday,
with a shift from the southwest through the evening. Winds will
subside on Sunday with the center of the low overhead.

Precipitation chances continue to dwindle with each forecast
package, with the bulk of the moisture smacking into the western
side of the Sierra Nevada. Snow amounts have dropped drastically on
the Sierra Crest, with only trace amounts expected in the higher
elevations of the southern Great Basin. Slight rainfall chances
exist for the entire forecast area, though with PWAT values of
around 0.35", any rain that falls will be very light.


.LONG TERM...Monday through next Thursday.

On Monday the upper level low will quickly exit to our east and our
area will be under drier, northwesterly flow. The next system will
be dropping down towards our area from the north but the bulk of the
ensembles and WPC clusters aren`t digging the system down into the
southern Great Basin. At this point, the impacts will be some
increase in northerly winds on Wednesday and Thursday, and a
maintenance of keeping our temperatures below normal. Any
precipitation will be light and should remain north of the Las Vegas
Valley with the latest NBM indicating only about a 10% probability
of measurable rain in northern Lincoln County.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty south to southwest winds are
expected today. Winds will increase between 17Z-19Z with gusts to
20KT. Gusts over 25KT are likely through the afternoon with the
strongest gust expected between 21Z-02Z when there is a moderate
chance (40%-50% probabilities) for gusts over 30KT. Winds will
diminish after sunset around 03Z-04Z when gusts end and south
winds drop below 10KT for the night. Winds will increase again out
of the southeast Saturday morning with gusts over 20KT expected
after 15Z. No significant clouds or weather anticipated through
the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...South to southwest winds will increase areawide today
with widespread gusts of 20-30KT expected. The strongest winds are
expected across Inyo County into Esmeralda County where gusts
over 30KT are possible this afternoon. Winds will diminish tonight
but remain elevated at 10-15KT through portions of southeast
California and western Arizona. No significant clouds or weather
anticipated through the TAF period.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Varian
LONG TERM...Czyzyk
AVIATION...Nickerson

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter