330
FXUS65 KVEF 061847
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1147 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and afternoon breezes are on tap
today and tomorrow. A shortwave trough will move through the region
on Wednesday, knocking temperatures down a few degrees and ushering
in another round of gusty northerly winds. Temperatures will rebound
a few degrees on Thursday with additional warming as we head into
the weekend thanks to a ridge building over the region.
&&


.UPDATE...Breezy northwesterly afternoon winds expected across the
region this morning with gusts between 15 and 25 mph as the windy
weekend system pushes eastward out of our forecast area.
Temperatures today will be cooler-than-average, with desert valleys
ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. No changes were made to the
forecast this morning, as it looks to be in good shape.
&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...212 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024/

.SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow.

The trough responsible for this past weekend`s winds will clear out
of the Western US and eject into the Central Plains. As this trough
ejects into the Central Plains we will find ourselves under dry
northwesterly flow aloft. As a result, we will see temperatures
rebound with normal temperatures returning to the region on Tuesday.
15 to 25 mph wind gusts are expected for much of the region this
afternoon, with locally higher wind gusts in the eastern Sierra and
higher terrain of the southern Great Basin. On Tuesday, the southern
Great Basin, far western Mojave Desert, Arizona Strip, and eastern
Sierra will see 25 to 35 mph westerly to northwesterly wind gusts as
a shortwave begins to approach the region. These winds will advance
south, impacting the rest of our forecast area on Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday.

Gusty winds return to the area by Wednesday as a shortwave trough
circulates around an upper level low over the Northern Plains. The
response at the surface includes increased northerly winds for much
of the area, particularly in the Colorado River Valley. The NBM
gives the area between Laughlin and Needles a greater than 90
percent chance of experiencing gusts of at least 40 mph, and other
areas around the CRV a 70 to 90 percent chance of reaching 40 mph. A
small area around Laughlin has a greater than 50 percent chance of
seeing gusts over 57 mph for a short time on Wednesday morning. Will
continue to watch these trends to determine the need for headline
issuance. Highs on Wednesday decrease 5 to 10 degrees from Tuesday
due to cold air advection with the northerly flow. Low pressure
should stay over the forecast area, preventing much of an increase
in temperatures during the latter half of the week. Moisture remains
near normal for this time of year and most of the forecast area
remains dry.

Heights rise and temperatures increase as an upper level ridge
starts to build off the Pacific Coast over the weekend into early
next week. Above normal temperatures return at this time, which for
Las Vegas means highs in the low to mid 90s early next week.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds this morning
will come around to the southeast by mid-afternoon and then turn
back to the southwest before sunset. Speeds are expected to remain
less than 10kts through tonight, although there is around a 60%
chance of seeing occasional gusts to 15kts once the winds come
around to the southwest this evening. Light and variable to
northeast winds are expected once again by Tuesday morning.  VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period with only FEW clouds
AOA 20kft AGL expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Las Vegas area TAF site will follow similar trends to
KLAS, with only KHND seeing winds above 10kts during the forecast
period. KBIH will have light winds this morning, followed by
southerly winds less than 10kts this afternoon. Winds are expected
to turn more westerly by late afternoon, with occasional gusts to
25kts developing by evening. Light northerly winds are expected by
late evening, continuing into Tuesday morning. KDAG will see
westerly winds through the TAF period, with gusty winds to 30kts
developing by late evening. TAF sites in the CRV will follow typical
diurnal trends, with northerly winds this morning turning to the
south and southeast in the afternoon and evening. VFR conditions
will prevail at all sites through the TAF period, with only FEW-SCT
clouds AOA 20kft AGL expected.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Varian
SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Meltzer
AVIATION...Planz

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