Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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021 FXUS64 KCRP 041812 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 112 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Not much change in the pattern today with onshore flow persisting, keeping a steady flow of low level moisture in the area. This will keep the possibility for some more of those pesky light showers, but not expecting anything measurable today. Additional Sierra Madre convection will be possible this evening into the overnight, and an isolated storm could drift across the Rio Grande late tonight. As we head into Sunday morning, a fairly potent shortwave pushes across the region, and could tap into a brief increase in deep layer moisture transiting the area. This along with the potential for a decaying MCS out of the north sagging in will add up to a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, especially north. Overall not expecting much rain...largely under a tenth of an inch, but some thunderstorms could produce briefly heavy rainfall rates to result in some higher amounts. Northern victoria county is clipped by both a marginal risk of excessive rainfall and a marginal risk of strong thunderstorms for Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Key Messages: - There will be a moderate to major risk of heat impacts from Tuesday through Thursday. Ensemble guidance for next week features the development of a positively tilted 500 hPa trough extending from the Great Lakes to the southwest CONUS. Southwest flow off the terrain of Mexico will contribute to 850 hPa temperatures increasing to 25-30C Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile, onshore flow will continue to advect Gulf moisture into South Texas with both the NAEFS and ENS forecasting 925 hPa specific humidity above the 90th percentile for early May. This will result in hot and humid conditions during the middle of next week. While above normal low level moisture will be in place across the region, mixing is expected to reduce humidity during the afternoon hours which will put a small damper on the magnitude of the heat, particularly out west. As a result, there is currently a 10-40% chance of maximum heat index values exceeding our Heat Advisory criteria of 110 degrees each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday, with the highest likelihood on Thursday. However, mostly sunny skies will increase heat stress beyond just the temperature and humidity alone. Accounting for this heat stress due to direct sunlight, the forecast WBGT currently indicates a High to Extreme threat of heat stress across South Texas for 4-6 hours each afternoon. Additionally, given that this will be the first prolonged stretch of above normal heat for the year, bodies will not yet be acclimated to the heat which will further increase the risk of heat illness. NWS`s new experimental HeatRisk index which takes this acclimation into account has a Moderate to Major Risk of heat impacts during the middle of next week. This means that anyone without effective cooling and/or hydration will be at risk of being affected by the heat in addition to those especially sensitive to heat. The good news is that there is hope for a respite from the heat before the endless Texas summer settles in with some model guidance brining a front through South Texas next weekend. Currently, CPC has a 60% chance of near-to-below normal temperatures next weekend through 17 May. May the odds be in our favor. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 MVFR CIGs will continue over the majority of the forecast area with only VCT that could see any VFR CIGs. With all of the moisture in the low levels (sfc dewpoints around 70), patchy fog (20-30% <5 miles) will reform tonight. the concern tonight into Sunday morning will be for LRD, COT, and VCT as the front and dry line, that has been stalled in central and west Texas, will sag south. Models have been showing a low probability (20-30%) that showers and thunderstorms will make it into VCT and LRD, and a 40% chance of getting into COT. so have put in VCTS for the overnight period at those sites, and have left precipitation out of ALI and CRP. As the disturbance and front move east, the CIGs and VSBYs are expected to clear out by the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue this weekend through next week. The persistent onshore flow will result in seas of 3-6 feet continuing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 87 75 88 / 20 40 10 0 Victoria 73 83 73 88 / 40 50 10 0 Laredo 76 91 76 97 / 30 50 0 0 Alice 74 88 74 92 / 30 40 10 0 Rockport 75 84 76 85 / 20 40 10 0 Cotulla 75 90 76 95 / 50 60 10 0 Kingsville 75 87 75 90 / 20 40 10 0 Navy Corpus 76 84 76 86 / 20 40 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM....TWH AVIATION...JSL/86