Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 201116 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
616 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...Update for 12z Aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...Mid level disturbance advecting east across the region
may result in a brief period of -RA at the beginning of the TAF
period at KLRD. However, a relatively dry llvl profile should
preclude most precip from reaching the ground, and thus will keep
KLRD TAF dry for now. VFR should generally prevail today. There
are some indications a brief period of upper end MVFR CIGs may
dvlp around midday/early aftn...but will carry VFR until certainty
in MVFR dvlpmnt for the aftn increases. LLVL moisture should
quickly redvlp tonight as a warm front shifts N. MVFR CIGs should
dvlp nearly areawide as a SSErly LLJ dvlps. Iso to sct SHRA to be
possible vcnty KVCT late Fri night. Breezy Erly sfc winds to dvlp
by mid/late mrng today and eventually become SErly tonight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 404 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

As of writing, convection was ongoing across Coahuila MX as a mid
level vort max advects across the region...and was also co-
located under a 70kt H25 jet streak. This convection is prog to
gradually weaken this morning as it approaches the International
Border as the upper level jet streak weakens. Have carried 20 POPs
for the NW CWA for this morning...but may need to expand POPs
farther south in a later update...based upon radar trends. Of
note, the 00z NSSL 4km WRF (which has been verifying rather well
so far tonight) brings light precip across much of the Brush
Country this morning before tapering if off across the Coastal
Plains by late morning. Aside from morning precip chances...today
will feature rather thick mid/upper level cloudiness this morning
with some thinning of the cloud cover occurring this afternoon.
Breezy easterly sfc flow will develop as pressures gradually lower
across much of Texas. The easterly flow off the Gulf should help
keep temps across the eastern third of the CWA slightly below
normal for mid April. However, despite a quasi cool flow off the
Gulf, dry soil moisture may compensate and still allow for temps
across inland areas to approach/exceed 80 degrees this afternoon.

A warm front will shift north across the region tonight with a 30
to 40 kt SSE LLJ developing in its wake. This will aid in an
increase in moisture advection with moisture then pooling in the
lower levels. Sufficient moisture in the sfc-H85 layer may occur
by late in the night for an isolated shower to develop across the
N Coastal Bend and Victoria area. Elsewhere, areas of stratus are
likely to prevail along with milder min temps.

Moisture pooling is prog to peak mid/late morning (nearly
saturated from sfc-H7ish) Sat before values slowly lower in the
afternoon as the H85 flow becomes more SSW...resulting in slightly
better chances of shower development (primarily across the N
Coastal Bend/Victoria area). In the afternoon, a strong mid level
trough is prog to shift east across the northern half of TX...with
showers and thunderstorms developing in response. S TX is likely
just a little too far south to experience much in the way of
significant convective development. A strong EML is prog to
persist all day around H7 which should preclude much in the way of
thunderstorms. Have lowered POPs significantly areawide for
Saturday with this forecast package and have greatly reduced
chances of thunder as well.

LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)...

Upper level trough axis will be swinging through the Plains
states at the beginning of the period. Deeper moisture will be
situated across the Coastal Bend into the Victoria Crossroads
Saturday evening but drier air will be quickly filtering in from
the west. Slight to low end chance of showers and storms will
exist mainly across east amd northeast sections of the area during
the evening hours. Some convection may be possible as well mainly
across the Victoria Crossroads as front moves through overnight.
The cold front will move offshore early Sunday morning with
lingering chances of showers and storms over the Gulf Waters. A
significant cooldown is not expected on Sunday as highs will be in
the upper 70s northeast of I37 with low to mid 80s elsewhere.
Quiet weather with warm conditions will prevail through much of
next week. Latest guidance brings another boundary across the area
in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. This will bring the next
chance of showers and storms to the area and will keep pops in the
20/30 percent range for now.

MARINE...Easterly flow will strengthen today with wind speeds
flirting with Small Craft Advisory levels at times. A warm front
will push north across the area tonight with the wind direction
becoming more southeasterly at that time...and remaining moderate
to strong. A few showers may occur late tonight and through the
day Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  67  79  65  82  /  10  10  30  20  10
Victoria          75  63  77  62  78  /  10  20  40  40  10
Laredo            82  67  85  66  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
Alice             80  66  81  64  84  /  10  10  30  20  10
Rockport          75  68  78  67  79  /  10  20  30  30  10
Cotulla           80  65  81  62  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        80  67  81  65  85  /  10  10  30  20  10
Navy Corpus       77  70  79  68  78  /  10  10  30  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION


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