


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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769 FXUS65 KFGZ 151045 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 345 AM MST Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures to continue through today, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms bringing gusty winds, but mostly light rainfall. An uptick in monsoonal moisture is forecast Wednesday through Friday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected each day. && .DISCUSSION...Today...High pressure centered over the Mojave Desert this morning will gradually shift eastward through the day. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again this afternoon as moisture looks to gradually return to the region. Gusty winds and dry lightning will remain the primary threat for today, with a couple brief downpours possible in any strong storm. Much of the hi-res guidance has activity initially developing over the higher terrain from the Mogollon Rim and north. Additional development should continue through the afternoon, however with weak flow given the high over head, storms arn`t expected to move too much. As storms over Black Mesa decay, the resulting outflow may also reinvigorate activity across the Little Colorado River Valley and Mogollon Rim into the evening hours. Wednesday through Friday...With the high now in place over New Mexico, and weak troughing near the Gulf of California, sub-tropical moisture is advected northward into Arizona. PWATs look to increase to near the 90th percentile for this time of year, which will usher in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across northern Arizona. Activity looks likely peak on Thursday, as added upper- level dynamics from the approaching trough will aid in upscale growth for the storms. However, latest guidance does seem to track the low further westward, which may limit it`s overall influence. Given the increase in moisture, flash flooding looks to be the primary concern going into the later part of the week. A couple more vigorous storm may be able to produce some hail and gusty winds, however widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Temperatures also look to cool through the second-half of the week. Afternoon highs from Wednesday onward look to be around 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. For this reason, Wednesday has been removed from the Extreme Heat Warning for the Grand Canyon, as temperatures are not likely to reach to 110F threshold given the increased cloud cover. Saturday through Monday...Over the weekend the aforementioned trough begins to propagate eastward, ushering in drier air behind it (especially across the western-half of the state). Global ensembles do point to a downward trend in PWATs as a result. However, with the ridge still in place to the east, the monsoonal flow looks to keep enough moisture remaining in place to keep isolated to scattered activity in the forecast. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 15/12Z through Wednesday 16/12Z...SCT SHRA/TSRA expected from 19Z to 03Z, mainly north and east of a KCMR-KPAN line. ISO lingering -SHRA possible through 09Z. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds possible in and around TS. HZ/FU possible near KGCN/KPGA from area wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds S/SW 10-20 kts from 18Z to 02Z, otherwise VRB 5-10 kts. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 16/12Z through Friday 18/12Z...SHRA/TSRA each afternoon/evening, most numerous over the higher terrain. MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds expected in and around TS. Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds W/SW 5-15 kts on Wednesday, becoming VRB 5-10 kts on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Cooling trend with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Some dry lightning strikes are possible Tuesday, then more wetting rains are expected on Wednesday. Daytime winds are southwest through west 5-15 mph each day. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorms. Thursday through Saturday...Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, decreasing in coverage on Saturday. Wetting rains are likely within any stronger storms. Winds west/southwest 5-15 mph, gusting to around 20 mph each day. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorms. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ006. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff