Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 211847
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
247 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.NEAR TERM /Through Sunday/...
Rest of Today and Tonight: A band of showers continues to push
slowly inland from Duval County northwestward into southeast
Georgia. The coastal areas of northeast Florida briefly went sunny
this afternoon, but clouds have since moved back in. Mostly
cloudy to cloudy skies will prevail through tonight. Isolated to
widely scattered showers were across much of the rest of the
interior. Temperatures were mild in the upper 60s to lower 70s
across much of the region, except the upper 70s to lower 80s
across the southern portion of the region. Showers are forecast to
diminish through the afternoon and evening hours, but a low
chance of showers will remain overnight. Overnight lows will be
closer to normal mid 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday: A mid/upper level low over the Panhandle of
Oklahoma/Texas this afternoon will meander slow east southeastward
through Sunday to across Arkansas. An area of low pressure will
begin to develop overnight tonight and through the day on Sunday
across Arkansas as well. Surface high pressure will remain along
the coast of the Mid Atlantic states, with breezy onshore flow
continuing through Sunday. Flow above the surface will become
southerly, and deep moisture will stream into the region.
Precipitable water values will increase to 1.5-1.7 inches, and
scattered to widespread showers are expected on Sunday.
Instability will remain low due to cloud cover, but there is a
very low chance of a thunderstorm across the southern and western
portions of the region Sunday afternoon.

.SHORT TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
A warm front extending from a low to the Northwest of the region,
will lift Northeast through the area Sunday night into Monday.
The accompanying cold front will follow Monday night into Tuesday.
As a result, thunderstorm chances are forecast for Sunday night
through Tuesday. At this point the greatest potential for stronger
storms is Monday afternoon and evening in the warm sector between
boundaries, and again toward the early morning of Tuesday with
the cold front.

The low will be over the Carolinas Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with wrap around moisture and troughing pivoting across the
forecast area.

Temperatures will trend near normal this period.

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
A stronger trough is anticipated to pivot around the Carolinas
low Wednesday night into Thursday, continuing unsettled period.
This low will move Northeast Thursday night, with high pressure
building from the Southwest.

Long term models diverge significantly late in the period. GFS
pushes a quick moving cold front through from the Northwest Friday
night, with high pressure building overhead Saturday. The ECMWF
has the front Friday night, but has a much slower movement with a
low in the Gulf moving Northeast along it, keeping the forecast
area unsettled Saturday. At this point will go with the wetter
scenario.

Temperatures will trend near to slight above normal at the start
of the period, then below normal into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will prevail through the TAF period,
with low VFR to MVFR cigs. Brief IFR conditions are possible in
heavier showers this afternoon. Showers are forecast to shift
westward and diminish late this afternoon and evening. Showers
are then forecast to become more numerous by daybreak on Sunday.
Showers are then forecast to impact the TAF sites through the day
on Sunday. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out towards
KGNV, but the probability is very low. East winds 10-15 knots
will prevail through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
East to southeast flow around 20 knots and seas 6-8 feet will
prevail over the offshore marine waters through early next week.
For the nearshore waters, east to southeast winds 15-20 knots will
prevail with seas 4-7 feet. A weak cold front will push through
the waters late Monday into Tuesday, and lighter west to southwest
winds will then prevail through the middle of the week.

Rip Currents: High Risk of rip currents through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  73  61  75 /  30  50  70  80
SSI  63  70  65  72 /  20  60  80  80
JAX  62  75  64  79 /  30  70  50  70
SGJ  65  75  64  77 /  30  80  70  70
GNV  64  79  64  79 /  40  50  40  60
OCF  63  81  63  80 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Kennedy/23/Sandrik



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