Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 260043 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
843 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Issued at 843 PM EDT WED APR 25 2018

Low level north northwest flow and lingering moisture has allowed
for some light showers across southeastern Kentucky into this
evening. These will end over the next few hours, with diminishing
lower clouds allowing for fog development given the lighter winds
and low dew point depressions expected overnight. Meanwhile, high
clouds stream in from the southwest out ahead a southern Plains
upper level low. Given the clouds and fog development overnight,
have allowed for slightly less of a temperature drop off through
the night. Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 311 PM EDT WED APR 25 2018

Extensive cloud field on the back side of east coast storm system
covers the upper and mid Ohio Valley this afternoon. Surface
moisture will remain in place as fairly decent subsidence develops
aloft over the boundary layer. Subsidence may be strong enough to
cause lower stratocu deck to thicken and lower again. Thus expect
the potential for some patchy dense fog to develop over potions
of the area overnight.

Further out, mid/upper level low will round the base of a larger
broad eastern CONUS trough during the short term. Closer to the
surface, a wave of low pressure will develop over the Mid-South
and track through the Tennessee Valley region Thursday into Friday
morning. Thus rain will return Thursday and Thursday night, mainly
south of the I-64 corridor.

Overall temperatures remain cool through the short term with near
normal overnight lows and highs about 5-10 degrees below normal
Thursday. But better weather is over the horizon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT WED APR 25 2018

Rain/drizzle chances will linger into Friday morning. A moisture
starved cold front will move through Friday afternoon and could
produce a widely isolated shower, but will maintain a dry forecast
for right as coverage will be very limited. A shortwave trough
will push across the Ohio river valley late Friday night into
Saturday. While GFS remains dry with this system, the 12z ECMWF
now showing some potential for a few showers in the east on
Saturday. Thus, have introduced some small small rain chances in
the east on Saturday. A stronger push of colder air will arrive
Saturday night with temperatures reaching into the 30s. As high
pressure builds in on Sunday, a dry Sunday is expected with decent
mixing Sunday afternoon. This will push dewpoints down into the
20s during the afternoon, setting up a very dry day. High pressure
will be centered over the region Sunday night with a very cold
night anticipated. Given the good mixing on Sunday, conditions
should favor more frost formation Sunday night. Thus, have gone
ahead and added frost into our eastern valleys and put a mention
in the HWO.

As the high slides east Monday into Tuesday, return flow will
allow a modest warm up with temperatures climbing well into the
70s on Monday and eventually lower 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Some low afternoon RH`s will continue to be possible Monday and
Tuesday and with winds increasing with the return flow, some more
elevated fire danger conditions may develop next week. As the
ridge starts to break down, we may start to see some rain chances
after the end of the forecast period. However, the majority of the
extended forecast will continue to feature dry weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)

MVFR stratocu deck will gradually exit to the southeast through
02z, with mainly VFR conditions expected through 06z, before
fog/low stratus builds in across the area. The fog/low stratus
could approach airport minimums at times between 09 and 13z, with
improvement to VFR after 14z. Precipitation and lowering clouds
will move in from southwest to northeast towards the end of the
period, with MVFR clouds likely at KSME and KLOZ by around 21z.
Winds will average around 5 kts or less through the period.




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