Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 261129 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
629 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...An area of showers with MVFR ceilings and a few
possible embedded storms will progress eastward across the area
this morning as a cold front moves through the area. VFR
conditions develop first over the western portion of the area
later this morning, then over the remainder of the area during the
afternoon, and continue through the remainder of the period. Light
southerly winds become westerly near 10 knots this morning then
diminish to near 5 knots by this evening. /29


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Have updated the first period (Today) due to a faster
movement of showers which have advanced into the western portion
of the area. Have also increased pops based on better coverage
seen with the convection. No other major changes. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...A shortwave trof near the
lower/mid Mississippi river valley moves quickly across the forecast
area through the early afternoon hours followed by a longwave upper
trof developing over the eastern states tonight.  A surface low
associated with the shortwave trof will be initially located near
central Mississippi then moves across interior Alabama through this
afternoon.  This system will have brought a cold front into the far
western portion of the area by the beginning of the period which
then progresses quickly eastward through the forecast area this
morning.  The quick movement of both the front and the associated
shortwave trof brings scattered to numerous/occasional showers
moving across the area mainly during the morning hours, with the
higher pops over interior areas along with some embedded storms.
Some mainly isolated showers will linger over the eastern portion
early this afternoon before dry conditions follow for the
remainder of the period. Instability is rather limited and no
strong or severe storms are expected. /29

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...Another fast moving
upper level positive tilt trof and associated increase in potential
vorticity advances quickly eastward over the central Gulf coast
Friday. With the passage of this system and a weak surface
pressure trof, may be enough lift to squeeze out a small PoP
Friday over the western zones. Slight chance of a passing storm in
the presence of weak daytime instability over portions of
interior southeast MS and coastal AL Friday afternoon. As the
upper trof sweeps east Friday night, a deep layer dry airmass
overspreads the area, bringing the beginning to a nice Spring

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Surface high pressure from
the Great Lakes southward to the northern Gulf Sunday is forecast
to drop southeast to off the southeast US coast by Monday. The
high moves a bit more east over the western Atlantic into the
middle of next week. With the high to our east, a return flow sets
up off the Gulf, bringing a modification in deeper layer moisture
and a return chance of showers and storms by Tuesday. Temperatures
also show a moderation trend going through the medium range. /10

MARINE...Light to moderate southwesterly winds early this morning
transition to a moderate to occasionally strong westerly flow as a
cold front moves across the marine area.  Will have Small Craft
Exercise Caution for most of the area today.  A moderate
northwesterly flow follows for tonight then subsides on Friday.  A
light to moderate northeasterly flow develops on Sunday then becomes
southeast on Monday. /29




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