Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 230944

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
344 AM MDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...Conditions are generally drying behind last night`s
cold front, but scattered rain and snow showers can be expected
through this morning. Today`s precipitation forecast has trended
drier, so other than isolated to scattered showers, this afternoon
will be relatively dry.

The next weather system remains on track to enter the region
tonight. Snow levels will remain low, and north-central Idaho
through northwest Montana have the best opportunity to see
impactful snow accumulations beginning Saturday morning. West-
central Montana will also likely see snow with the cold front
passage during Saturday, but impacts to paved surfaces appear
unlikely with the snow expected during the day. Saturday should
also be a cool and breezy day. The wind combined with higher
intensity snow showers will bring lowered visibility at times.
Wrap around snow remains in latest forecast models, so snow should
linger in northwest Montana through Saturday night.

Predominantly northwesterly flow will begin Sunday into early next
week, keeping a slight chance of precipitation over the area. Best
chance for rain and snow showers will be the terrain of northwest
/west-central Montana and north-central Idaho each day.
Temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend throughout the
week as high pressure nudges into the area. By Friday into the
weekend, long range models are hinting at a digging trough over
the area, resulting in cooler, wetter, and breezy weather.


.AVIATION...Conditions remain unstable behind last night`s cold
front, so surface winds remain elevated and scattered rain and
snow showers are expected through this morning. GOES 16 fog
products show lowered cloud cover expanding through north-central
Idaho, associated with surface high pressure that developed
behind the cold front. Model cross sections show the cloud cover
expanding into western Montana during this morning, so lowered
ceilings and obscured terrain can be expected. Simulated satellite
loops for this afternoon show a general decrease in cloud cover
with the exception being brief lowered ceilings in isolated to
scattered showers. Another shortwave trough will move into the
region tonight bringing snow down to 2000 feet. Most of the
precipitation will focus in north-central Idaho and northwest
Montana during Saturday.



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