787
FXUS66 KMTR 151732
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1032 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 405 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

-  High temperatures will be below their seasonable averages
   today and continue through Thursday.

 - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the
   higher elevations.

 - Slight warming trend Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Area profilers and soundings confirm the marine layer is 2,000
feet deep at Ft. Ord in Monterey County, 1,500 feet deep at
Oakland, and 2,000 feet deep at Bodega Bay (Sonoma County). This
is leading to extensive stratus coverage and some coastal drizzle
in the North Bay and Central Coast, while the clouds break up a
little faster across the core Bay Area in between.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 405 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025
(Today and tonight)

Another night of stratus, but it looks healthier and more widespread
than last night. Expect stratus to continue to seep into the
interior valleys of the region over the next few hours, with the
daily retreat beginning by mid to late morning. The marine layer is
expected to be around 1500-2000feet today, which should keep a
healthier amount of stratus along the coast and perhaps immediate
coast today while interior locations clear out. Another wash, rinse,
repeat forecast is on tap for tonight with stratus, fog, and patchy
drizzle returning.

For those above the marine layer, elevated fire weather concerns
slightly warmer and dry conditions continue. RH recovery looks to
reamin poor to moderate, while winds remain onshore. Diurnally
breezy conditions are expected each afternoon/evening along the
coast, mountain gaps/passes, and along ridgetops.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 405 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025
(Wednesday through Monday)

Cooler weather on tap with the marine layer remaining around 1500 to
2000 feet through midweek, before compressing closer to 1200 to 1500
feet by the end of the week. This should allow for the continuation
of nighttime and morning stratus, though the extent and amount of
fog or drizzle should not be as prominent by the end of the work
week. High temperatures remain below the seasonal norm through
Thursday, with a slight warming trend kicking off Friday and into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals. An upper-level
shortwave trough helped deepen the marine layer to 2,200 feet and
produce coastal drizzle. A second upper-level shortwave trough will
approach the region towards the end of the TAF period, so all in
all, a persistence forecast is on tap.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northerly flow. Westerly flow
will return once the sea breeze kicks in this afternoon. High
confidence (up to 80%) in an MVFR ceiling developing tonight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low stratus clouds will begin to filter in
through the Golden Gate Gap late this afternoon and linger through
tomorrow morning.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and MVFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. High confidence in IFR
ceilings returning to both terminals tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 925 AM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Localized hazardous marine conditions in the form of strong
northerly breezes and very rough seas will continue through this
afternoon for the northern outer waters. Wednesday through
Saturday will bring widespread gentle to moderate breezes and
moderate seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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