Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 221609

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1009 AM MDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The upper level low pressure system over southwest
Utah will lift northeast and exit the state by early Wednesday.
High pressure will briefly replace the exiting low pressure
Thursday, followed by the next slow moving storm system for the
upcoming holiday weekend.


.DISCUSSION...The center of the upper low currently over extreme
southwest Utah will turn northeast and weaken as it crosses
western and northern Utah tonight through early Wednesday.
Relatively high PWAT values across mainly western/northern Utah
will fuel scattered convection generated from a fairly broad area
of synoptic-scale lift associated with the upper low. The axis of
the upper jet through eastern Utah this afternoon should produce
sufficient upper divergence to support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across central/northeast Utah later today, with more
isolated coverage farther to the west and closer to the center of
the upper low.

Lingering moisture and weak dynamic support for lift should
maintain loosely organized showers over the northern half of the
forecast area Wednesday morning. Building heights later Wednesday
through Thursday should further limit convection through the day

The upcoming holiday weekend could turn out to be cool and
unsettled as the next slow-moving closed low enters the western
Great Basin Friday night, then encompasses the entire basin this
weekend through the beginning of the new week. Areas north and
east of the upper low will receive the bulk of any precip, which
would put much of western, central and northern Utah in line for
a wet holiday weekend. Far southern and eastern Utah will likely
see daily showers/storms, though with a significantly reduced
areal coverage.

Issued an earlier update to boost Pops across eastern Utah.
Remainder of the early morning forecast package looks good for


.AVIATION...Northerly winds are expected to increase at the SLC
terminal around 16-19Z. However, winds after 19Z may be largely tied
to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity; southerly winds are
most likely with these storms, but gusty and erratic winds are also
possible at times from 19Z to 02Z. Other primary impacts from these
storms could include ceilings below 7000 feet and lightning.





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