


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
650 ACUS02 KWNS 181729 SWODY2 SPC AC 181727 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 $$