Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 251406 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1006 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Dry, warm weather is expected through Wednesday. Moisture returns for the remainder of the forecast period with a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... There will be a break from thunderstorms today and tonight. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints lower than normal for this time of year. Precipitable water values will fall below 1 inch today as a mid-level ridge builds into the forecast area, preventing convection. Downslope flow will support the dry, warm weather. Tonight, fair weather continues with temperatures dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dry air and a 20 kt LLJ should suppress fog development in most areas. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Fair. Dry air remaining over the region, reinforced by a dry surface boundary moving through early Wed morning. Some slight moisture increase Thursday may provide a slight chance of afternoon convection along a sea breeze. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Models indicate upper trough to our west will cut off then stall or retrograde, with high pressure surface and aloft to our east, through Saturday. Indications of a continued gradual increase in atmospheric moisture. Model consensus indicates mainly slight chance to low chance POPs, and would expect mainly diurnal timing as per climatology, with near or slightly above normal temps through most of the period. Indications of an upper low moving into the NE US over the weekend into early next week with the possibility of a surface boundary shifting down into our region by Monday. Significant uncertainty this far out on timing and any impacts. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions likely throughout the 24 hr forecast period. Dry air and subsidence will prevent convection today. Winds will be out of the NW today from 5 to 10 kts transitioning overnight to light northerlies. Fog is unlikely early Wednesday morning due to dry air and a 20 kt LLJ but we cannot rule out shallow ground fog at AGS. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible Thursday through Saturday. A few locations may have early morning stratus and fog. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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