Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 211801 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 101 PM EST Mon Jan 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Cold arctic high pressure will settle over the area through tonight with very cold temperatures expected Tuesday morning. Moisture will begin to return Tuesday night and Wednesday with some scattered light showers and increasing clouds. A cold front will approach on Wednesday and move through Wednesday night, bringing more showers. High pressure will move in for Friday, with a reinforcing high behind a dry cold front moving in on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... This afternoon...An arctic air mass continues to descend on the forecast area with weak cold advection on northerly winds, despite mostly sunny skies as noted on satellite imagery. Temperatures have struggled through the 30s today but expected to top out in the lower to mid 40s in the central Midlands and CSRA and in the upper 30s to around 40 in the northern Midlands. Tonight...Cold arctic high pressure will settle over the area tonight with the center of the high becoming situated over the Mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas. The question will be whether or not the winds will become calm over the forecast area tonight to provide ideal radiational cooling. Lows tonight should be colder than last night and fall into the lower 20s, although if winds go calm there will certainly be some locations that drop into the teens under clear skies and a very dry air mass, especially in the northern Midlands. Further south in the CSRA the winds may stay up a bit more and the mixing will prevent ideal radiational cooling and therefore warmer overnight lows. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure moves offshore Tuesday into Tuesday Night for a return flow of warmer and moister conditions. 12Z models continue to depict a chance of showers late Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning. Any precipitation could be mixed in Lancaster County due to temperatures near freezing. Temperatures will be much warmer on Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a frontal boundary. A slow moving frontal boundary pushes through the region Wednesday Night into Thursday. Expect rainfall accumulations of up to 1.25 inches with this frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Models differ on the specifics with regards to a deep upper trough over the Eastern U.S. next weekend. Expect temperatures to be at or below normal levels for late January. Disturbances rotating around the base of the upper trough could amplify and become an issue for the region Sunday Night into Monday, however confidence is lower than normal in any given solution. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions during the 24 hr forecast period. Cold arctic high pressure will continue to build over the region tonight with a very dry air mass which will prevent fog formation overnight. Some thin cirrus may pass overhead tonight into Tuesday but should have no impact. Winds from the north- northeast will diminish with sunset and remain light to near calm overnight, then pick up from the east less than 10 mph after 14z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR or IFR cigs are expected to return Tuesday night into Wednesday morning due to low clouds. We may see a break for a little while Wednesday afternoon, but low cigs/vsbys will likely return Wednesday night, maybe stretching into Thursday morning, as a low pressure area and cold front move through from the west. VFR conditions dominate the later half of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding will continue on the Congaree River due to recent rainfall and upstream reservoir releases within the Broad and Saluda River basins. && .EQUIPMENT... The Columbia, SC (KCAE) WSR-88D is out of service due to a faulty voltage regulator. The part will be ordered but an estimated time of arrival is unknown at this time. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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