Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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484 FXUS62 KCAE 160541 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 141 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure at the surface and aloft will drive sensible weather through the week. Seasonable temperatures will warm to above normal for the end of the week. There will be a chance for diurnal showers Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Little overall change, except for some increase in mid and high level cloudiness this morning. Fair. Upper trough along the east coast will maintain a NW flow aloft for our region. Area of mid and high level cloud cover to our W and NW will drift E and SE into our region this morning. Latest high resolution models indicate some dissipation of the cloud cover this afternoon, but partially replaced by SCT diurnal cumulus. Surface high pressure will remain centered near the region with light winds, though model consensus favors a light WSW direction for the afternoon. A slightly moistening atmosphere, but still dry with PW values around 1 inch. Max temps are expected to continue moderating slightly, with values today near seasonal normals expected. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions continue Monday with surface high pressure centered off the coast. Mid and upper level ridging will strengthen over the area. By Tuesday there may be just enough moisture and instability to bring isolated showers during the afternoon as weak short wave energy crosses the area. Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows around 60. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Rain chances diminish for the second half of the week. Surface ridge offshore will build westward into the southeastern states through Saturday with a mid and upper level ridge centered over the region. ECMWF and GEFS ensembles indicate deep layer ridging which should cap any convection. Temperatures are expected to be at or above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR. Dry surface high pressure will remain over the region, with light winds. Shallow river valley fog possible and may affect AGS early this morning. Question is extent of any mid and high level cloud cover that may stream into the region by daybreak, which would work against cooling/fog development. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Patchy late night/early morning fog in favored locations, such as AGS, possible, otherwise no significant impacts to aviation expected through Monday. Slight chances for precipitation and/or mainly late night/early morning flight restrictions Tue-Thu. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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