Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 290552 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 152 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and unseasonably warm weather expected through tonight. A weak front will cross the area late Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front. Another weather system crossing the area Tuesday will bring widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Dry weather and more seasonable temperatures will return Wednesday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Some high level cloudiness will move across the area overnight. There will be enough low-level winds to help limit fog formation by morning, but there may be enough moisture to bring some scattered to broken low clouds in late tonight. Very mild conditions will occur again overnight, with southwesterly winds still supporting some near surface warm advection. Temperatures should only drop into the mid 60s overnight, while normal low temps this time of year are in the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Sunday and Sunday night...An upper level ridge off the the coast will weaken across our area as deep low pressure moves across the Midwest to the Great Lakes region. Strong southwest flow aloft will push a cold front through our area during the late afternoon and early evening. Only shallow moisture ahead of the front. Upper level forcing mainly north of the region with strong upper level jet from Kentucky to the Mid Atlantic region. Instability appears at least moderate with CAPE 1500-2000 J/kg but mid level cap appears strong. Deep layer shear strong suggesting some potential for severe thunderstorms. The high resolution models suggest a few thunderstorms may move into the area mainly the SC Piedmont to the CSRA. Blended guidance pops low. Continued slight chance pops mainly across the western Midlands/CSRA where instability and moisture may be enhanced. Any convection should diminish by 03z as front moves to the coastal plain. Temperatures Sunday afternoon will be near record values in the mid 80 to around 90 degrees with subsidence ahead of front. Dry conditions are expected behind the front Sunday night with lows in the mid 50s to around 60. Gusty winds are expected ahead of the front with a strong 30 to 40 knot 850mb jet. Winds gusts 25 to 30 mph possible. Winds diminish after frontal passage. Monday...Surface and upper winds become westerly in the wake of the front. Overall there appears to be too much dry air and a lack of forcing to support any precipitation, but increasing cloud cover is expected through the day. Highs temperatures will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Fairly good model agreement in the long term period. A deep upper trough will move through Tuesday and Wednesday as surface low pressure crosses the area from the west. Continued categorical rain chances Tuesday into Tuesday night. There is the potential for a few thunderstorms across southern half of the forecast area where weak instability may exist. As the system pulls away, drier air will filter in Wednesday afternoon. Dry weather is forecast Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal through the long term period. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions about 09z. MVFR ceilings later this morning into the early afternoon. Shallow moisture will be increasing toward morning ahead of an approaching cold front and stratus expected to develop over GA and lift northeastward into the region area around 12z. Will bring MVFR cigs to AGS/DNL by 12z and persist through around 17z. Less confidence further north and east at CAE/CUB/OGB as models show the lower clouds struggling to push into the Columbia and Orangeburg area so will only carry prevailing SCT025 there. VAD wind profile from radar indicating southwest 30 to 40 knot low level jet. Winds near calm at the surface so low level wind shear thru overnight. Winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 22 knots from the southwest after 17z. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible the chances are too low to include in the forecast at this time. Cold front will move through 22z-24z with winds shifting to west and mid level ceilings. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions again possible Tuesday and Wednesday with next upper trough and front. && .HYDROLOGY... The Congaree river remains elevated due to runoff from recent significant rainfall. Please consult our web page at www.weather.gov/cae for the latest info. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99 HYDROLOGY...

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