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992
FXUS62 KCAE 160723
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
323 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Rain will spread into the eastern Carolinas today with cool, NE
air flowing into the forecast area. Expect breezy winds and
well below normal temperatures. Moisture will remain high across
the area through mid week with scattered mainly diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms. Lower chance of rain late week
as drier air moves into the area. Temperatures cooler than
normal early in the week then expect a warming trend.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Key Message(s):

- Rain will spread into the region today with breezy winds

Early this morning, light rain will continue to move into the
Pee Dee as low pressure develops offshore. As the low continues
to deepen, a plume of moisture will spread into the Carolinas.
Models suggest the strongest moisture advection, and higher rain
amounts, could be north and east of the forecast area. North
and east of I-26 rainfall totals should generally range from 1
to 2 inches through tonight. However several SREF members and
HREF PMM values indicate some potential for amounts over 3
inches in Chesterfield and Lancaster counties. This could lead
to localized heavy rainfall if convective bands develop and move
across these areas. There has been a trend to shift higher
rainfall amounts north of the area which limits confidence in
flooding potential. The threat of thunderstorms and severe
weather is low. Only 10% of SREF members show sbCAPE values over
250 J/kg.

The pressure gradient will strengthen during the morning hours
before the center of the low moves inland and weakens later
today or tonight. Expect gusty winds through midday or this
afternoon up to 35 mph in the Midlands. A Lake Wind Advisory has
been issued for portions of the Midlands through Monday night.
With cool NE flow and rain over the area, expect daytime
temperatures well below normal with highs in the low to mid 70s
across the Midlands and around 80 in the CSRA.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Key Message(s):

- Winds will remains gusty through Tuesday
- Scattered showers remain possible through Wednesday.

Surface low should be moving off to the north of the cwa early
in the day Tuesday, then will continue tracking into
central/northern NC into Wednesday. Moisture should linger on
the backside of the low, even with some downslope flow
attempting to take hold. Best chance for scattered showers each
day will remain north of the I-20 corridor, with more isolated
activity expected south of I-20. Pressure gradient will remain
tight enough through the day Tuesday to keep some gusty winds
across the area, then winds will being to weaken into Tuesday
night and Wednesday as the low moves further away from the area.
Temperatures could vary quite a bit from north to south each
afternoon due to potential cloud cover north, and more sun
south. Highs across the north Tuesday may only reach the upper
70s, while the southern portions could climb into the middle
80s. Wednesday will see even warmer conditions as the low moves
away and we see more sunshine. Highs from the lower 80s north to
the upper 80s south.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Key Message(s):

- Slightly drier weather expected for mid-week
- Cooler temperatures will return by the weekend.

By the end of the week, a slightly drier pattern should set up.
Should still be enough moisture for isolated showers during the
afternoon hours, but coverage will remain quite limited.
Temperatures return closer to normal on Thursday, then upper low
moves into the region into the weekend. This brings a return of
cooler temperatures back to the area.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Conditions deteriorate through the TAF period with MVFR
ceilings likely and IFR possible.

Expect breezy NE winds through much of the TAF period due to
developing low pressure offshore. Winds around 10 to 15 knots
with gusts to 25 knots through the afternoon. Depending on the
track of the surface low, wind speeds should decrease after 06Z
Tuesday. Expect cigs to remain in the MVFR range through the day
today with possible IFR cigs during the afternoon as the low
moves inland. CAE/CUB could see some vsby restrictions in rain
so included a tempo group for that although there is some
uncertainty in the exact track and where the sharp gradient in
rain ends up. Conditions may begin improving around 12Z Tuesday
but confidence is low.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers may bring restrictions at
times through Monday night. Drier air will push into the region
this week lowering rain chances.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ016-020>022-
     027>029-031-037-038-115-116-135>137.
GA...None.
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&&

$$