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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 060918
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
418 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler weather in store for today and Thursday, with breezy
winds this afternoon. Expect fair weather with a gradual
warming trend Thursday through Saturday. The next chance of rain
is expected this weekend with a return to cooler and drier
weather behind a cold front on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold advection will lead to below normal temperatures today.
Dry high pressure building into the region will allow for breezy
winds through the day, diminishing quickly around sunset as the
center of the high moves closer and the pressure gradient
weakens. A Lake Wind Advisory should not be needed but gusts up
to 20-25 mph are possible. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s
during the day. A strong downslope component to the winds will
allow for diabatic heating which would typically point to highs
on the warmer end of the guidance spectrum.

With weaker winds tonight, we will see temperatures drop into
the low 30s to upper 20s. There may be a quick drop in
temperatures right around sunrise as the surface high is nearly
overhead. This adds some uncertainty to the forecast with
temperatures potentially dropping a few degrees cooler than
expected. Roughly 25 percent of NBM members have lows in the mid
20s rather than low 30s to upper 20s which is the current
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Thursday and Thursday Night: High pressure will be centered
over the forecast area before shifting offshore Thursday night.
An upper level ridge to our west will translate eastward over
the Carolinas with northwesterly 500mb flow Thursday becoming
more zonal Thursday night. Air mass will remain quite dry with
ensemble PWATs around 50 to 80 percent of normal on Thursday but
as the surface high shifts offshore, some weak moisture
advection may begin Thursday night as winds shift to the south.
High temperatures should remain slightly below normal in the mid
to upper 50s while lows Thursday night should be near normal in
the mid to upper 30s.

Friday and Friday night: Upper level ridge axis will shift east
of the forecast area as an upper trough digs and deepens across
the Plains states. Moisture advection becomes more significant
Friday night with increasing deep southwesterly flow with PWATs
rising to almost 1 inch by 12z Saturday. Significant dry air in
the mid levels would prevent any precipitation from reaching the
ground during this period. Temperatures should be warmer on
Friday with southerly flow and increasing thicknesses with highs
expected in the lower to mid 60s. Increasing clouds Friday
night and southerly winds will limit radiational cooling and
lows should also be warmer in the lower to mid 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The extended forecast period features a highly amplified 500mb
pattern early in the period with active weather expected over
the weekend. Despite some timing differences, global ensembles
are in reasonable agreement showing a deep upper trough moving
eastward through the MS/TN Valley over the weekend pushing a
strong cold front through the forecast area on Sunday. There is
increasing confidence in a potential high shear low CAPE
convective event associated with this system and this will need
to be monitored in the coming days.

The upper trough takes on a negative tilt as it approaches the
forecast area on Sunday. Strong, deep southwesterly flow will
precede the upper trough and cold front on Saturday with strong
moisture transport into the region Saturday night into Sunday
with an 850mb jet around 50 knots crossing the forecast area on
Sunday ahead of the cold front. PWATs rise to around 180-200
percent of normal on Sunday and ensembles showing some positive
CAPE supporting the possibility of thunderstorms. Ultimately,
timing of the front and available instability will determine the
risk of severe weather but there is potential on Sunday. Behind
the front, cool high pressure will build over the area into
early next week. Temperatures during this period will start out
above normal on Saturday and Sunday with highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s over the weekend then cooling below normal for
Mon/Tue behind the front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Gusty winds this afternoon but VFR conditions likely.

Winds will remain up through the early morning as the pressure
gradient strengthens. This will prevent fog even at AGS/OGB.
Winds will increase around or shortly after 15Z with NW winds
from 10 to 15 knots and gusts to around 20 knots through the
afternoon. Gusts will quickly diminish through the evening and
overnight. Expect light to calm winds by early Thursday morning.
However the dry airmass will once again prevent fog.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread
restrictions will be Saturday night through Sunday as a strong
low pressure system/cold front approaches from the west.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$