Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 221749 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 149 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure remains over the area. Temperatures will moderate as the ridge moves offshore and southerly winds return ahead of another cold front. This dry front is forecast to move through the area Tuesday evening. High pressure behind the front will be centered northwest and north of the forecast area Wednesday through Thursday. An area of low pressure riding by to our south may bring rain Thursday night into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A pressure ridge extending into the forecast area will be shifting farther off the Virginia and North Carolina coasts through tonight. The models develop a weak inverted trough near the South Carolina and Georgia coasts tonight in response to a mid-level shortwave trough with moisture advection on the south side of the offshore ridge and lingering ridging inland. Expect stratocumulus associated with this pattern especially in the southeast section of the forecast area late tonight. The moisture should remain too shallow for rain as indicated by the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF MOS, and most SREF members. Fog should be limited by a continued very dry near-surface layer. The temperature guidance was consistent. It will not be as cold as the previous night because of the easterly flow and air mass modification. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry and seasonable conditions are expected on Tuesday before a reinforcing shot of cool Canadian air pushes into the region due to building surface high pressure Wednesday through Thursday. Clouds will be on the increase on Thursday with Gulf of Mexico lifting into the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Medium range weather forecast models continue to experience solution track and intensity challenges with regards to a developing coastal low toward the end of this week. Despite the lower than normal confidence, central South Carolina and east central Georgia can expect chilly and at times damp weather Thursday Night through early Saturday with high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Conditions improve early next week, however temperatures should remain below normal and winds could be breezy at times due to a strong upper trough over the Eastern U.S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Expect mainly VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period. A pressure ridge extending into the forecast area will be shifting farther off the Virginia and North Carolina coasts through tonight. The models develop a weak inverted trough near the South Carolina and Georgia coasts tonight in response to a mid-level shortwave trough with moisture advection on the south side of the offshore ridge and lingering ridging inland. Expect late night stratocumulus associated with this pattern especially in the southeast section affecting the OGB, AGS, and DNL terminals. Some SREF members indicate MVFR ceilings developing. However, we followed the GFS and NAM MOS and forecasted a VFR ceilings late tonight. The moisture should remain too shallow for rain as indicated by the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF MOS, and most SREF members. Fog should be limited by a continued very dry near-surface layer. We used the GFS and NAM MOS for the wind forecast. Expect continued light wind mainly from the east about 5 knots today and light and variable tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected through Wednesday. Widespread restrictions could develop Thursday and continue through Friday ahead of low pressure near the Gulf Coast. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99

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