Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 081837 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 237 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough over the eastern states will continue to fill over the weekend. Bermuda high pressure will strengthen during the upcoming week supporting the typical summertime pattern of diurnal convection and near normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Longwave trough over the region will continue to fill and slowly progress eastward. Could see weak short wave move across the area this afternoon and evening, and provide some lift for convection. Moderate instability across the region with lifted indices -6 to -8 and MLCAPE 2000-3000 j/KG. Have continued isolated to scattered convection into this evening. Main convection currently over GA in are area of steep low level lapse rates. Highs should range in the low to mid 90s. Expect convection to diminish this evening. Afternoon highs should reach the lower 90s for most locations. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Models indicate weak upper trough over the region Sunday and Monday with upper ridge across FL into the Gulf of Mexico. Westerly 500 mb flow on Sunday becomes more northwest Monday as the upper trough slides a bit east. PWAT values are likely to be between 1.5 and 2.0 inches Sunday then a little higher Monday as the low level flow increases from the Gulf of Mexico. Have continued chance for scattered mainly diurnal convection both days. High temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 90s with lows overnight in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overall the GFS and ECMWF show agreement in the synoptic pattern through the long term. Bermuda high pressure will ridge into the region for much of the week, strengthening by late week as an upper level ridge builds over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean PWAT values remain steady through the week ranging from 1.75 inches to near 2.0 inches. These conditions should provide near normal temperatures and typical summertime convection each afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Morning LIFR/IFR stratus and fog continues to lift this afternoon as only KAGS and KOGB remain MVFR. Satellite trends indicate they should go VFR in the next hour or so. Moist airmass remains entrenched with CU fields developing across the area. Upper level dynamics are easing up from the last few days so although isolated thunderstorms are again expected after 21-22Z, overall areal coverage is expected to be less than the widespread activity over the last few days. A weak decaying surface boundary extends out of a low in S GA, extending NE up to just south of KOGB and up towards KFLO. The best trigger to initiate thunderstorms along with the most instability should lie along and south of the boundary...so medium confidence is reflected in VCTS at KOGB. Radar, satellite and short-range models support this forecast. VCSH is indicated at KAGS/KDNL but we will be watching it closely for possible thunder. Deeper moisture and instability should keep convection east of KCAE/KCUB There is drier air attempting to work in out of central and northern GA, but with no strong push aloft enough moisture remains to form IFR/LIFR fog and stratus again at all terminals...especially in the Edisto and Savannah River basins at KAGS/KDNL/KOGB. It should dissipate more quickly as layer is more shallow. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each day in mainly diurnally driven convection as well as early morning fog/stratus. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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