Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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148 FXUS62 KCAE 151736 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 136 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface trough will remain stretched near our southeastern forecast area this evening, providing a slight chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms for that area. Otherwise, fair and warm with drier air and upper ridging keeping the forecast dry overnight and into Thursday morning. An upper trough and increasing moisture will provide a return to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms Friday through the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Pwat values remain low across the area, with values across the Midlands as low as 1 inch. Higher values do exist along the NC/SC border, and across the coastal plain. The dry air, combined with a mid- level capping inversion, should help to inhibit convection over most areas. Exception may be closer to the higher pwat values. Will continue to carry only slight chance pops over far eastern Midlands in vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary, along with adding slight chance across portions of the Pee Dee and Catawba Regions, closer to the slightly deeper moisture. Temperatures will be warm again with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Tonight: Isolated rainfall will dissipate by sunset. Another relatively dry night across the cwa, with skies mostly clear and light winds. Can not rule out brief patchy fog at the usual locations towards sunrise. Overnight lows in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Southwesterly flow will bring increasing moisture on Thursday. However, high pressure will remain over the area and mid-level capping will inhibit convection through most of the day. Precipitation chances will be better on Thursday evening as the ridge weakens and a trough approaches from the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can then be expected Friday evening as the upper trough moves closer and a surface lee trough develops. Temperatures during this period will be near to above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The upper trough will start moving over the area Saturday, and be over the region on Sunday. Atmospheric moisture will therefore continue to increase with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. This first trough will move out Sunday night, but another will approach on Monday, so diurnal convection will remain likely. A front will move through on Tuesday and unsettled weather will continue. The front should stall near the coast on Wednesday, thus convection may be more concentrated over the southeast Midlands. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Generally VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr forecast. Dry air mass remains in place and will limit convection to the Coastal Plain, so taf sites remain dry. Expect scattered VFR cumulus deck to remain through the afternoon, then become mostly clear overnight. Winds around 5 knots, variable at times through the afternoon, then becoming light and variable overnight. With light winds and mostly clear skies tonight, can not rule out patchy fog near bodies of water once again. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There may be areas of late night and early morning stratus and fog. There will also be a chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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