Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 070512 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1212 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move through the forecast area overnight. High pressure will build into the area from the north over the weekend, then a warm front will lift north early Monday. Unsettled conditions are expected early next week ahead of the next cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... A weak cold front will move through the area overnight. Scattered areas of rain ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough have shifted east of the area. Satellite trends indicate mid- level cloudiness lingering for much of the night. Overnight lows will be limited by cloud cover. Expect lows in the lower and middle 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The weak cold front will move offshore on Saturday, carrying most of the moisture with it. Other than some passing mid clouds skies should be mostly sunny as high pressure moves into the Mid Atlantic States to our north. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels. Saturday night high pressure will begin to build southward along the Lee of the Appalachians in typical wedge fashion. This will allow cooler air to drain in on light northerly winds. Temperatures will drop into the 30s under mainly clear skies. The wedge will hold into Sunday, and with moisture and associated clouds on the increase, high temps will be a few degrees cooler on Sunday. There should be enough dry air in the low levels to prevent any meaningful precpitation during the day, but chances will increase on Sunday night as the wedge loosens its grip. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Deep southwesterly flow ahead of a significant trof and associated cold front will provide mostly cloudy and mild conditions through Tuesday with occasional showers. The best chance of showers will be in the northwestern portion of the forecast area closer to upper support. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday night with a good chance of rain most places due to a combination of above normal moisture (PWs more than a standard deviation above normal), decent low level surface convergence, and a favorable jet location for ageostrophically forced vertical velocities. An arctic high will move into the northern U.S. behind this front for the second half of the week. The coldest of the air will stay to the north, but high temps will be about 10 degrees below normal on Thursday and Friday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding a potential area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico which could send some clouds and showers in by late Friday. I went with the blend of low end chance POPs for now. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Expect VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period. Regional radar indicates light rain has pushed east of our TAF sites. Otherwise, expect mainly mid-level cloudiness overnight. Surface high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard Saturday, bringing a wind shift to NE and some drier low-level air into our forecast area. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR expected Saturday night/early Sunday. Deteriorating conditions Sunday night with a chance of rain and MVFR to possibly IFR CIGs. Chance of showers and associated restrictions Monday and Tuesday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99

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