Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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688 FXUS62 KCAE 211803 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 203 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building into the area tonight remain over the region through Wednesday bringing a with a warming trend. A cold front crossing the region Friday will bring a chance of showers and Thunderstorms for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Upper level low pressure system located north of the area will gradually shift eastward tonight. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to build into the area. Although downslope flow is occurring this afternoon, temperatures are still a little cool as 850mb temperatures remain 1-2 standard deviations below normal. Temperatures are on track to max out in the upper 60s this afternoon. Excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the middle to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast on Monday will lift northeast to the New England coast allowing high pressure at the surface and aloft to build into our region through Thursday. Dry weather and above normal temperatures are expected. An upper low crossing the Great Lakes region will push a surface trough across the Midlands early Wednesday. Moisture will remain shallow, so no precipitation is expected. Winds will temporarily shift west to northwest producing a warming downslope flow. Surface high pressure will move off the coast Thursday setting the stage for increasing moisture Thursday night. High temperatures Monday will be in the mid to upper 70s then in the low to mid 80s Tuesday through Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Monday night and around 60 both Tuesday night and Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Southern stream shortwave energy is forecast by all guidance to cross the lower Mississippi Valley into the southeastern states Thursday night through Sunday. Models continue to have timing differences related to interaction with northern stream energy crossing the Great Lakes. The GFS has the southern stream system moving off the coast Friday night while the ECMWF closes off the upper low over the southeastern states, thus is much slower. Will go with a chance of showers through Sunday though confidence is low given model differences. Have indicated the highest pops on Friday with a chance for thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the region. Temperatures through the long term will be near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the 24-hr TAF period. Satellite imagery shows a field of fair weather cumulus across the area with bases around 4-5kft. High pressure will continue to provide dry weather through tonight with northwesterly winds at 5 to 10 knots. Clouds will diminish after sunset this evening with winds becoming light and variable. No fog expected at the terminals early Monday morning due to the dry airmass. High pressure will provide dry weather at the terminals again on Monday with VFR conditions expected. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected through Thursday with high pressure dominating. The chance of rain and associated restrictions will return Thursday night and Friday as low pressure moves along the Gulf Coast. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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