Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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179 FXUS62 KCAE 091321 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 921 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Potential for strong to severe storms continues through Friday morning. Drier conditions return for the weekend before the next chance of precipitation arrives by midweek. Expect temperatures to be near average for much of the forecast period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Given the strength of the line moving into western areas, as well as the breaks in the clouds allowing for addtional heating, we have expanded the Tornado Watch eastward to include the Columbia metro area, as well as Orangeburg and Sumter. I am really more concerned with wind than tornadoes, but I didn`t want to have two different types of watches out at the same time for fear the message would get confused. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... One more potentially active convective day Friday ahead of the advancing cold front. Guidance still seems to handle potential MCS moving through south-central GA and into southern SC during the morning hour and into the early afternoon. This may impact the southern CSRA the most if it does develop as forecast and moves through. Damaging winds would be the primary threat, with hail also being possible. Additional thunderstorm development possible late in the day over the northeastern Midlands as the main upper trough axis swings through. By Friday night, the drier air behind the front will finally be getting into the area, ending the rain chances for the weekend. Saturday will be dry and cooler behind the front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Conditions look quite nice into Monday with high pressure across the area. Rain chances do increase Monday night through Wednesday ahead of a slow moving, closed mid/upper level low progged to push into the eastern CONUS by the middle of next week. Temperatures remain cooler through Tuesday, then warm back up by the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms to bring periodic restrictions into the afternoon, VFR otherwise. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through about 18z-20z. Expect convective related restrictions with the passing storms. Confidence is highest in the 14z-19z timeframe, so have included a TS tempo group at each of the terminals to try to capture the main wave of convection. Thunderstorms outside of this main wave are possible, but timing and confidence in location isn`t high enough to include at this time and will amend when needed. Strong winds in excess of 50 knots with the convection, especially the main wave are possible. Outside of the storm related winds, background winds are forecast to be from the southwest gusting to around 20 kts. Winds diminish after 00z. There is potential for restrictions again at the very end of the TAF period, but left it out until the next TAF issuance. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Another day of convection and associated restrictions on Friday is possible. Drier weather with no restrictions likely for this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...