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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 160459
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1259 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front crosses the region tonight. High pressure
then builds down from Canada through Thursday night. This high
then slowly slides to the east, while a frontal system
gradually approaches from the west Friday, then crosses the area
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12:59 AM Update: Current IR satellite imagery shows mostly
clear skies across much of the forecast area, with another band
of clouds just beginning to move in from the west associated
with scattered rain and snow showers, which can be viewed on
MRMS reflectivity composite. These showers will likely struggle
in the upslope terrain and cooling temperatures across northern
Maine, so any precip from these showers will result in little to
no accumulation.

Previous Discussion:
Upper level low pressure will remain north of Maine tonight
through Tuesday, while a series of disturbances rotate around
the low. One of the disturbances is currently exiting across the
Maritimes. Another disturbance will cross the region overnight,
with another disturbance crossing the region Tuesday. At the
surface, a cold front will cross the region tonight through
early Tuesday. Expect isolated/scattered rain showers across the
region with the exiting disturbance early tonight. Isolated to
scattered rain/snow showers are then expected across northern
areas late tonight. Otherwise, expect partly/mostly cloudy skies
across northern areas tonight, with partly cloudy/mostly clear
skies Downeast. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies along with
isolated rain showers across northern areas Tuesday, possibly
also isolated snow showers in the morning. Across Downeast areas
Tuesday expect a mostly sunny morning then a partly sunny
afternoon. Northwest winds will gust up to 20 to 25 mph Tuesday.
Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 30s
north, to the mid to upper 30s Downeast. High temperatures
Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 40s north, to the mid
to upper 50s Downeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The region will be on the backside of a gradually filling closed
low over the Canadian Maritimes as it slowly exits to the east
Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

Other than possibly some lingering light rain or snow showers
across the North early Tuesday evening with an exiting shortwave
going around the base of the closed low, it should be dry. This
will be due to the bulk, if not all, of the significant forcing
remains over Canada and dry air continuing to build in over the
low to mid levels. This will result in gradual decreasing cloud
cover from SW to NE, though with the upper level cold pool slow
to exit, could see an increase in cloud cover in the afternoon
across the North due with some instabilty driven stratocu.

Lows Tuesday night should be near normal, mainly from the upper
20s to mid 30s. Highs on Wednesday should be near to slightly
above normal, from around 50 to the mid 50s. With the sky
expected to be mainly clear to clear Wednesday night, and light
winds, have undercut guidance towards the 25th percentile of
guidance. Lows should be near to slightly below normal.

Deep layered ridging builds in on Thursday with associated
subsidence keeping things dry and relatively cloud free. Highs
on Thursday should be around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deep layered ridging persists over the region Thursday night, so
it should be dry as a result.

The medium range guidance has come into better agreement for the
system Friday into the weekend. It appears the ridge axis should
slide to the east during the day on Friday, allowing for an
increase in cloud cover, especially over western zones in the
afternoon. Given the amplified pattern in the northern stream in
particular, its not surprising that the 12z guidance is
suggesting that precipitation could end up holding off through
the day on Friday. For now, do have slight chance pops over far
western zones. For now run with chance pops Friday night through
Saturday night, as the northern stream closed low should be
fairly slow to transit to the north through Saturday night.
It should be showery (very much on and off - not a continuous
rainfall) with a surface occlusion passing, with the showers
probably exiting to the east late Saturday afternoon and
evening.

The region remains over a developing full latitude trough
centered mainly east of the Appalachians Sunday and Monday.
With drier air returning at the low to mid levels, it should be
dry though. Slight chance pops on Sunday reflect a degree of
uncertainty in how quickly the initial upper low exits to the
NE.

Temperatures should be near to slightly above normal Thursday
night through Monday, with the exception of noticeably above
normal on Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: VFR across all terminals through the rest of the
night. Brief MVFR cigs may move in across northern terminals
late tonight as isolated rain and snow showers move through the
area. Mainly VFR conditions continue through the day on Tuesday,
with occasional MVFR possible in any lingering showers. VFR
Tuesday night. Winds light and variable overnight, becoming NW
5 to 10 kts on Tuesday with gusts to 20 kts, then NW around 5
kts Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night-Friday: VFR, with the possible exception of a
brief period of MVFR early at northern terminals Tuesday
evening. NW winds G15-20KT possible Tuesday evening.

Friday night-Saturday: VFR, with periods of MVFR or lower
possible in any showers. W-WNW winds G15-20KT possible Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of
the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters,
through 8 PM this evening due to seas. Conditions then below
small craft advisory levels on all the waters through the
remainder of the night and Tuesday. Isolated/scattered showers
this evening through early morning.

SHORT TERM: Sub-SCA conditions are forecast Tuesday night
through Saturday. Other than gusts and seas just under SCA
levels Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, winds and seas
should be well below SCA limits.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/Maloit
Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/Maloit