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000
FXUS62 KTAE 281045
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
645 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Surface high pressure remains in control of the sensible weather
pattern this afternoon with southeasterly flow expected to continue.
Like Saturday, winds could be breezy at times with occasional gusts
to 20 or 25 mph. In the upper levels, a weak upper level trough will
slowly translate east into tonight. We`ll see fewer clouds this
afternoon which should allow temperatures to warm up into the mid 80s
and be about 1 or 2 degrees warmer than yesterday. Similar to
previous evenings, another surge of easterly flow will move through
in the evening and early part of the overnight as the Atlantic
seabreeze moves through. This will keep rough winds and seas for
boaters planning to be out in the Gulf overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Ridging will prevail across the area through Monday. The center of
the surface high will slide southward off the east coast with
southeast to southerly surface winds prevailing. By Tuesday, a weak
upper level shortwave will move into the area, and it may provide
just enough lift for a low chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the northwestern portions of the area. The dry initial
airmass ahead of it will likely prevent higher rain chances. Highs
will generally be in the 80s except upper 70s along the beaches.
Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The weak upper level disturbance on Tuesday will exit the area on
Wednesday with ridging returning to the area. The forecast continues
to look dry for the remainder of the work week. By Saturday, the
upper level ridging may flatten with some increase in moisture
noted. Afternoon highs will generally range from the mid 80s to near
90 away from the immediate coast. Overnight lows will generally be
in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at area terminals through the TAF
period. Similar to Saturday, breezy southeasterly flow will
prevail at all terminals with occasional 15 to 20 knot gusts
through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Elevated southeast winds will continue today with advisory level
conditions expected through this morning for the waters east of
Apalachicola and into early this afternoon for the waters west of
Apalachicola. Another easterly surge of winds is expected tonight
into Monday morning with exercise caution or advisory conditions.
Winds and seas will relax to more favorable conditions starting on
Tuesday and continuing through the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

High mixing heights, more sunshine, and a continuation of breezy
southeasterly flow this afternoon will lead to another day of high
dispersions. This will allow somewhat elevated fire weather
concerns with recent dry conditions taken into account. The
breezy conditions continue into Monday with dispersions remaining
on the higher side of things. Low-level moisture could slowly
increase through the upcoming week, but warm and dry conditions
will still allow relative humidity to drop around 35 to 45% most
afternoons. Additionally, widespread wetting rain chances remain
very low through at least the middle of the upcoming week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Minor flooding continues along the middle and lower Suwannee River.
However, the minor flooding will be ending from north to south in
the next few days with the lack of additional rainfall. There are no
other flooding concerns expected for the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  61  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   81  65  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        84  62  84  62 /   0   0  10  10
Albany        83  61  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      84  60  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    85  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  76  68  76  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ750-
     752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...DVD