969
FXUS62 KTAE 110859 CCA
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
458 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Cold front stretches this morning from the Florida panhandle to
southern Georgia with dewpoints falling through the 60s to upper 50s
north of the front with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s south
of this feature in the eastern Big Bend. Expect the front to
continue working south this morning. Dry conditions are expected
this weekend with some increase in high clouds from the west. More
seasonal conditions are on tap with highs in the 80s and lows in the
upper 50s. Dewpoints will continue falling into the 50s so a welcome
reprieve to the typical mugginess is in order.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Fairly benign conditions are expected until Monday afternoon when
the first of several shortwaves is expected to move across the
region. We`ll have increased rain chances Monday afternoon as
southerly return flow gets reestablished along with instability and
upper-level support.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
generally in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The aforementioned shortwave will be the first in a parade of
shortwaves that look to move across the north Gulf states with
several rounds of weather possible throughout the week. Given upper-
level support and good instability and decent low-level shear
there`s a fair chance for multiple rounds of severe weather. Given
the mesoscale nature of these disturbances it`s far too early to get
into specifics, however, once we get into Tuesday and beyond we`re
looking at an active period. Friday`s shortwave looks to be the most
potent, as of right now, with strong dynamics in place for mid-May.
Be sure to come back for updates over the next few days as we
monitor it`s evolution in the model world.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
generally in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A cold front will pass by the terminals overnight with winds
clocking from the west to northwest. Dry air will filter behind
the front with VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Weekend boating conditions will be met with fair weather before
chances for showers and thunderstorms increase early next week with
the potential for impactful maritime convection on Tuesday.
Northerly winds turn more southerly ahead of the upcoming storm
system. Seas respond with wave heights in the 4 to 6 feet range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Dry conditions are on tap this weekend behind a cold front passage
with winds from the north to northwest as high pressure settles
upstream. Winds will gradually clock around to the south Monday as
that high pressure moves east and a warm front moves from the south
through the area and moisture starts to increase as a result. Rain
and thunderstorms overspread the region Monday and Tuesday. Overall,
dispersions are favorable through the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 447 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

In the extended period the WPC is forecasting 3-5 inches
throughout next week. This could introduce some riverine
concerns, however, it`s too far out to say with any degree of
confidence. Most of this precip is expected after Tuesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   83  61  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   82  64  84  68 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        81  58  82  64 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        81  58  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      84  58  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    87  59  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  84  67  80  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Oliver