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073
FXUS62 KCHS 211650
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1250 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet conditions and mostly sunny skies will prevail through
the weekend, with a cold front then poised to push through the
area Monday, bringing with it chances for showers and breezy
winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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No significant changes were required with the afternoon update.
Smoke plumes have been noted on radar, and there was a report
of smoke at KLHW, but with no reductions in visibility. The
HRRR Smoke Graphics do not show any reductions in visibility
through the afternoon. But some smoke can be noticed in parts of
the sky, where it otherwise will be sunny.

This afternoon: Aloft, a trough will shift offshore this
morning as low amplitude ridging quickly translates eastward
through the region. At the surface, high pressure will be the
primary feature while centered south of the region. It`ll be a
dry, but sunny day, with winds gradually relaxing as that
surface high expands into the immediate area, and the gradient
decreases.

Temperatures and dew points are the main challenge for the day.
An offshore flow and the strong late March sun will be
counteracted somewhat by the pre-existing cool air mass. But
based on the low level thickness guidance, we did lower some
places by 1-2F degrees from previously. We also trimmed dew
points down a tad with the offshore flow, with most min RH
values down as low as the upper teens into the 20`s this
afternoon.

Tonight: Zonal flow will prevail aloft as a trough moves across
the Upper Midwest and into the central Appalachians. Dry high
pressure will continue to prevail across the Gulf Coast and into
the forecast area. Under clear skies temperatures will continue
to run well below normal with lows in the upper 30s inland
ranging to the low to mid 40s along the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday through Sunday: Moisture starved cold front dives
across the region Saturday. Outside of a brief wind shift, not
expecting to see much in the way of impacts. Afternoon highs
during this time will be in the low to mid 70s under mostly
sunny skies, with overnight lows dipping into the 40s. Quiet
conditions continue Sunday as sfc high pressure builds overhead.
With the aid of southerly winds and ample sunshine, should see
highs warm into the mid to upper 70s inland, with areas along
the coast hovering in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Monday: Unsettled weather returns to the forecast Monday, as an
upper level trough deepens across the Ohio River Valley.
Meanwhile, at the sfc, will see a quick moving cold front glide
across our area, resulting in a few light to moderate showers
and breezy southwesterly winds. Latest soundings continue to
show little in the way of instability and shear, keeping the
severe threat negligible. Guidance has also shifted the moisture
axis a bit more southwestward, with the focus now more centered
across the MS/GA/FL border. As such, would anticipate QPF to
remain on the lighter side. Ensemble guidance seems to agree,
with the GEFS/ENS/GEPS all showing less than a 30% chance of
seeing accumulations greater than or equal to a quarter inch.
Rather, the more likely scenario will entail seeing QPF range
between a few hundredths to perhaps a tenth. Otherwise, look for
afternoon highs to dip back into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Outside of a few lingering showers along and southeast of I-95
Monday night, should see largely dry conditions return to the
region by daybreak Tuesday. Upper level flow then turns quasi-
zonal, keeping conditions dry for the remainder of the extended
period. Temperatures during this time will remain near/slightly
above normal, as highs rise into the 70s and lows fall into
40s/50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18Z
Saturday. Winds will become a bit gusty late in the TAF period
as mixing heights climb during the warming of the day.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through the weekend, with brief reductions in cigs/vsbys
then possible Monday ahead of an advancing cold front.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Into this afternoon: We still have one last Small CRaft ADvisory
for the outer Georgia waters, where a few more gusts to 25 kt
and 6 foot seas will occur through 4 PM. NW winds back to the W
and SW at much lighter speeds by late day. Seas will slowly
start to subside, dropping to 2-4 feet by late, and highest on
the outer Georgia waters.

Then overnight, southwest winds will increase a bit with speeds
into the 10-15 knot range, with widespread 2-3 foot occurring.

Saturday through Monday: High pressure remains overhead through
the weekend, allowing quiet marine conditions to prevail. Sfc
cold front then dives across the region Monday, causing rain
chances and breezy southwesterly winds to return. Currently have
gusts ranging between 20-25 kt across the SC/GA coastal waters,
with seas between 3 to 5 ft. Thus, for now, expect conditions
to remain just shy of Small Craft Advisory criteria, but will
continue to monitor trends in the event that gusts/seas
increase.
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&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ374.
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&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...
MARINE...