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194
FXUS62 KCHS 151729
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
129 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will prevail through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure will become re-established over the area tonight,
as tropical invest AL93 passes across the Florida peninsula and
into the eastern Gulf. It will be significantly less active
than previous days with just scattered showers, and some
thunderstorms, moving onshore and progressing inland at times
this afternoon. The remainder of the evening and overnight will
be relatively quiet with rain chances largely confined to over
the waters, however a few showers could make a run for the coast
late. It will be another mild night with low temperatures in
the low to upper 70s, highest near the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will prevail over the
local region through the end of the work week. This will yield a
typical summertime patter of scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Owing to the building high pressure, temperatures
will warm into the end of the week, with low to mid 90s Wednesday
warming to the mid to upper 90s by Friday. The current forecast
features heat index values of 102-110 on Friday, a Heat Advisory may
be required for portions of the forecast area. However, afternoon
showers and thunderstorms may limit the overall warming, possibly
keeping heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria. Overnight
lows will be mild, only dropping into the mid to upper 70s, warmest
along the beaches.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Ensemble guidance supports upper ridging prevailing through the
weekend, with high pressure holding strong at the surface as well.
The building high pressure will yield warming temperatures, with
locations reaching into the upper 90s through the weekend. Heat
Advisories may be required for portions of the forecast area as heat
index values reach upwards of 110 over the weekend. A typical
summertime pattern of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will continue.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Prevailing VFR is expected through the 18z TAF period. There is
indication a few showers could move onshore and make a run for
KJZI, and possibly KCHS, Wednesday morning. If a direct impact
occurs, brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities are
possible. Highlighted VCSH for now and will continue to monitor
trends.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout the
period, however brief flight restrictions are possible within
showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and/or
evening hours.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tonight: Southeast flow will become more southerly
tonight as tropical invest AL93 passes across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Gulf, and high pressure becomes re-
established over the area. Somewhat of an enhanced gradient will
maintain speeds largely in the 10-15 kt range, with some gusts
approaching 20 kt. Seas will build to 3-4 feet.

Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure will dominate across the
marine zones through the end of the work week and into the weekend.
This will yield southeasterly flow generally 10 to 15 knots and seas
averaging 2 to 3 ft. Gusts along the coastline could reach around 20
knots each afternoon associated with the sea breeze.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ETM
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...CPM/ETM
MARINE...CPM/ETM