Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 281435 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1035 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail through much of the weekend, before a weak cold front pushes through Sunday night. A low pressure system will then impact the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure will return for mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid-level heights will build across the southeast U.S. today as a powerful shortwave digs across the Central Plains. Return flow along the backside of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore will yield a slight uptick in dewpoints which combined with slightly warmer temperatures will make it feel a bit more humid compared to previous days. Highs are poised to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast with a fairly robust sea breeze keeping coastal areas a bit cooler. Record highs could be challenged at both the Charleston and Savannah Airports while the onshore flow should keep highs below record levels in Downtown Charleston. Breezy conditions will develop across the coastal counties with the passage of the sea breeze. Gusts 25-30 mph will be possible, mainly from coastal Chatham County into portions of the Charleston Metro Area. There could be some patches of sea fog that buffet the beaches throughout the day, but no major issues are expected. Tonight: High pressure will gradually give way tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain-free conditions will persist. Slightly elevated south/southwest winds will keep conditions unseasonably warm with lows only bottoming out in the 63-66 degree range. There will be a continued risk for some patchy sea fog impacting the coast with some low-stratus possibly brushing far interior Southeast Georgia. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday through Tuesday: Warm and dry weather will persist on Sunday ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the west. Temperatures are expected to soar into the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast. These values will again put daily maximum temperature records in jeopardy (see climate section below). The aforementioned front will pass through Sunday night, pushing offshore by morning. Moisture will be lacking as it shifts into the area, so we have maintained a dry forecast. Lows Sunday night quite mild in the low to mid 60s. Weak high pressure will return for Monday. Dry conditions will persist although an increase in cloud cover is expected. While temperatures won`t be quite as warm as previous days, they will still be well above normal for late March. Highs will mainly be in the mid 80s, with lows around 60/low 60s. A mid level trough will swing into the eastern U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a warm front will lift north through the area as low pressure tracks across the Deep South and into the area. Rain chances will increase through the day with 60-70% PoPs in the afternoon. Much will be dependent on the track of the low, but seeing as models put most of the area in the warm sector, instability will support mention of thunder. Healthy bulk shear values could allow for some storm organization. Otherwise, temperatures will again be above normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure will shift off the coast Tuesday night and continue to lift away from the area on Wednesday. A few showers could linger into Wednesday, but largely the bulk of precipitation will end Tuesday night. High pressure will then build into the area allowing for dry weather through Thursday. Models beyond this time aren`t in the best agreement, although it appears another front and/or low could pass through late week. Temperatures will be more seasonable. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR. Gusty winds are likely behind the sea breeze, especially at KCHS. Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR into Tuesday. Flight restrictions possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a storm system affects the area with showers and possible thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Today: Southwest winds this morning will back to the south this afternoon in response to a resultant sea breeze circulation developing along the beaches. Conditions could get rather gusty with its passage, mainly along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor. Winds will average 10-15 kt today, except 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the Charleston Harbor behind the sea breeze. Seas will average 1-3 ft. Tonight: South to southwest wind regime will persist as high pressure holds well offshore. Winds will average 10-15 kt, except closer to 15 kt perhaps as high as 15-20 kt for the Charleston and Georgia offshore waters. Seas will average 2-4 ft. Sunday through Thursday: High pressure on Sunday will give way to a weak cold front that will pass through Sunday night. Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria, however southwest winds will peak in the 15-20 kt range across the Charleston county waters prior to frontal passage into the afternoon. No marine concerns are expected on Monday. Low pressure will then pass over the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, with marginal advisory conditions possible into Wednesday. The pressure gradient will relax for Thursday. Models continue to show potential for sea fog into Sunday ahead of a weak cold front. Not the most ideal set-up, so we only included a mention of patchy fog across most of the waters through Sunday morning. && .CLIMATE... Record high maximum and high minimum temperatures for the next several days: KCHS: Sat 3/28: 88 (2017) / 65 (1987) Sun 3/29: 87 (2012) / 67 (1997) KSAV: Sat 3/28: 89 (1907) / 67 (1921) Sun 3/29: 90 (1907) / 67 (1991) KCXM: Sat 3/28: 91 (1907) / 68 (1921) Sun 3/29: 91 (1907) / 68 (1997) && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JRL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... CLIMATE...

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