Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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280 FXUS62 KCHS 250154 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 954 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and unseasonably hot conditions will dominate into late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Late Friday evening: No significant forecast adjustments adjustments were necessary. Deep-layered ridging will provide a mainly clear and warm overnight. By daybreak, low temperatures will range from the upper 60s/lower 70s inland to the lower/middle 70s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... A deep layer ridge is expected to be locked in over the southeast U.S., centered near the northern Gulf coast through the period. With rising mid and upper level heights and west-southwest low level flow, high temperatures are expected to approach or exceed record values. Overall, models generally showing highs in the mid to upper 90s most areas away from the immediate coast. Even could see temperatures around 100, especially by Sunday and Monday. Late afternoon sea breezes are expected to be weak and not penetrate very far inland each day, which will hold relatively cooler afternoon highs close to the immediate coast. Models indicate afternoon dewpoint temperatures will mix down a bit each day, possibly down around 60 well west of I-95, and mid to upper 60s close to the coast. If this pans out, afternoon max heat indices should hold in the 100 to 103 range. There could be a few spots that get closer to 105, which is minimal Heat Advisory levels. No significant rain chances expected through the period. Kept low/slight chance PoPs on Saturday in the presence of a weak backdoor front over the northern Charleston Tri-county region, but confidence not very high. GFS showing another weak backdoor type front Sunday night and Monday, but with a lack of deep layer moisture and forcing, have kept out mention of rain chances for now. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The mid-level ridge will remain in place while surface high pressure persists. Temperatures may trend downward a few degrees each day. However, they are still forecasted to remain well above normal throughout the long term. Additionally, no rainfall is in the forecast. Heat advisories, poor air quality, and dry fuels that could increase the risk of wildfires are all concerns. But the details will need to be better defined as this time period gets closer. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. && .MARINE... Overnight. south to southwest winds will average 5-15 kts and will be accompanied by seas 1-3 ft. No highlights expected through the remainder of this forecast period. The axis of high pressure is expected to remain just south of the waters, keeping west- southwest winds of mainly 15 knots or less and seas 3 feet or less through mid week. Winds could increase more toward 15 knots Sunday night and the first part of Monday over SC waters as a weak front potentially stalls and then dissipates over the northern waters. && .CLIMATE... A significant, prolonged heat wave will challenge or break many of these records: ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY: KCHS: 99 set May 21, 1938. KSAV: 101 set May 30, 1898 and May 31, 1945. KCXM: 99 set May 21, 1938 and May 26, 1953. RECORDS FOR SAT 05/25... Station Record High Year(s) ------- ----------- ------- KCHS 97 2000, 1953 KSAV 100 1953 Station Record High Min Year(s) ------- --------------- ------- KCHS 75 1953 KSAV 76 1878 KCXM 79 1998 RECORDS FOR SUN 05/26... Station Record High Year(s) ------- ----------- ------- KCHS 98 1953 KSAV 100 1953 Station Record High Min Year(s) ------- --------------- ------- KCHS 75 1998 KCXM 79 1998 RECORDS FOR MON 05/27... Station Record High Year(s) ------- ----------- ------- KCHS 98 1989 KSAV 98 1989, 1962 KCXM 95 1962, 1926 Station Record High Min Year(s) ------- --------------- ------- KCHS 76 1991 KSAV 77 1878 KCXM 78 1991 RECORDS FOR TUE 05/28... Station Record High Year(s) ------- ----------- ------- KCHS 97 1967, 1964 KSAV 96 1964, 1898 KCXM 93 2000 Station Record High Min Year(s) ------- --------------- ------- KCHS 76 2000 KSAV 76 1885 KCXM 80 2000 RECORDS FOR WED 05/29... Station Record High Year(s) ------- ----------- ------- KCHS 95 1945 KSAV 98 1945, 1898 Station Record High Min Year(s) ------- --------------- ------- KCHS 76 2018 KSAV 75 1885 KCXM 77 1998 RECORDS FOR THU 05/30... Station Record High Year(s) ------- ----------- ------- KCHS 95 2004 KSAV 101 1898 Station Record High Min Year(s) ------- --------------- ------- KCHS 75 1982 KSAV 75 1924 KCXM 78 1998 && .EQUIPMENT... Due a station helium shortage, we will only launch 12Z upper air soundings until further notice. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...SPR SHORT TERM...RFM LONG TERM... AVIATION...NED/RFM/SPR MARINE...NED/RFM/SPR CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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