Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 210811 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 411 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail into early next week. A weak cold front should move into the area toward the middle of next week before lingering through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 4 AM: Deep ridging from the sfc to the mid-levels will remain over forecast area today and tonight. Latest water vapor images indicate deep dry air across the Southeast U.S. Given the deep dry air, thin cloud cover across the southernmost zones should decrease through the pre-dawn hours. As a result, sunny to mostly sunny conditions are expected across the region today. Given good insolation and warming llvl thicknesses, high temperatures are forecast to peak above normal. By mid afternoon, temperatures are expected to range from the upper 80s across inland GA to the low to mid 80s along the coast. This evening, winds are forecast to decouple by mid to late evening, with light to calm conditions expected through the rest of the night. Temperatures should cool steadily tonight, given a mostly clear sky and light sfc winds. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 60s inland to near 70 along the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High confidence this period. Deep high pressure will give way to a weak cold front which looks to approach Monday night before likely stalling over or near the area into Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper trough will be pushing offshore helping to keep tropical cyclone Jerry well off the coast. Not expecting any appreciable rain chances given the dry air and lack of significant forcing. Temperatures will generally warm through the period staying mainly above normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Moderate confidence this period. Medium range guidance is in decent agreement indicating tropical cyclone Jerry will be well offshore and moving even farther away Tuesday night while a weak cold front pushes into the area. The front should stall out and linger over or near the area through the week. Given the relatively dry air and lack of significant forcing we are not expecting any significant rainfall. Temperatures will remain above normal with heat indices back near 100 degrees across GA Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR through 06Z Sunday at KSAV and KCHS. Extended Aviation Outlook: No significant concerns through Thursday. && .MARINE... Sfc high pressure is forecast to remain centered across eastern NC today into tonight. East winds will persist through the near term, with speeds settling to 10 kts or less across the marine zones tonight. Seas are forecast to decrease through the period. Wave heights today are expected to range from 2-4 ft within 20 nm to 5 to 7 ft beyond 20 nm. By tonight, wave heights are forecast to decrease to 2-3 ft within 20 nm to 4 to 6 ft beyond 20 nm. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the outer GA waters, AMZ374, until Sunday morning. Sunday through Thursday: No significant concerns as a weak cold front moves into the area and stalls. The resulting weak pressure gradient will lead to winds and seas staying below Advisory levels despite some possible swell energy from Jerry. Rip Currents: A High risk of rip currents will persist today given swell periods up to 14 seconds at the beaches. An elevated risk for rip currents will likely continue into early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tides could get high enough to produce minor coastal flooding mid to late next week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ374. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...NED/RJB MARINE...NED/RJB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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