Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 170005
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
805 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the local area tonight. High
pressure will build east across the central Great Lakes by
Wednesday.  The high will eventually move off the coast of Maine by
Thursday night.  A low pressure system will move east to the western
Great Lakes by Friday and become nearly stationary over the Great
Lakes into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
to move across NE Ohio and NW PA this evening with a gradual
decrease in coverage and intensity as we start to lose diurnal
heating. The actual cold front remains upstream across SE
Michigan extending from near Flint to Jackson at 8 PM. A few
thunderstorms remain ahead of and along the front and may sneak
back into NW Ohio later this evening. We will be watching
rainfall amounts as any larger cluster will produce locally
heavy rainfall with high precip rates.

Previous discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move slowly east
and northeast at this time.  There is still a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and tonight.
We may see a couple storms pulse up and need to be watched
closely through the rest of the day into tonight. Localized QPF
amounts will be around 0.75 inch where the heavier thunderstorms
occur.

Cold front is expected to move east across the local area around 8
PM this evening at Toledo and Findlay, Cleveland and Mansfield by 11
PM, and Erie, Youngstown, and Akron-Canton by 5 AM.  The front does
slow in forward motion as it arrives in the eastern half of the
forecast area later tonight.  This will allow for a lingering chance
for showers and thunderstorms this evening into the early morning
hours in the east.

Otherwise, cold front sweeps east allowing the high pressure to
build into the forecast area from the west.  The surface high in
combination with the upper level ridge building in from the
northwest will bring a return to fair weather into Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

Cold air advection will follow the front along with decreasing
dewpoint temperatures. Leaning in the direction of the model blend
for temperatures through the period. Highs through the period in the
middle to upper 70s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cool and dry conditions for the short term. Surface high pressure
will remain in place over the region with an upper level trough
dominating the eastern U.S. through late week. Highs will be around
5 degrees below normal, with nighttime lows in the 50s. For
Wednesday looking at some overlake instability with h850 temps
around 10C and lake temps 23C. The northerly flow won`t support a
notable fetch length, but believe we will see some clouds develop
from the lake over the northern lakeshore counties. By afternoon
there could be some diurnally driven cu elsewhere. Models may be
overdoing the moisture in the air column, which has been the bias
over the last few weeks, so if the drier air is present than few
clouds will form. Partly to mostly sunny skies should allow some
mixing of drier air which will keep humidity values down to around
50% or less. This dry period will exasperate already stressed
vegetation. Winds will shift and remain light on Wednesday Night
into Thursday Night with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A slow moving upper low will take up the majority of the weekend
for the region, moving from the upper Midwest to the Upper Ohio
Valley during that time. Weekend will be broad brushed with
shower/thunderstorm chances, but in all likelihood, it will not be a
washout. We will just see periods where the chances are elevated.
Details will have to wait until smaller scale features can be
resolved. Overall this pattern for the weekend will bring back
temperatures several degrees. Friday ahead of this system there will
still be some mid 80s, but by Sunday there will be more upper 70s
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
move across NE Ohio/NW PA through about 03Z. Several
thunderstorms have produced wind gusts to around 25 knots but
stronger gusts have been rare. Locally heavy rain is occurring
with IFR visibilities in the heavier showers.

The actual cold front remains upstream across SE Michigan.
Although winds have become somewhat erratic with thunderstorms this
evening, many sites will flip back around to the SW before
shifting to NW or N with the front between 4 and 10Z. A few
showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front but coverage
will tend to decrease as we approach midnight.

Although not showing up in observations upstream, models are
suggesting an MVFR cloud deck will develop along and behind the
front across eastern portions of the area overnight. Included a
window from 10-14Z at most eastern terminals with 2500 foot
ceilings. Much drier air will spread south into the area on
Tuesday and ceilings should lift and scatter out by late
morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible late Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
SW winds will increase some this evening and tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front which is slated to cross the lake
between midnight and daybreak. Northwest winds will become
slightly gusty on Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens over
the area. We could also see some decent overlake instability,
given the warm lakes and 850 temperatures around 10 C, resulting
in better mixing. Winds will likely remain around 15kt with
gusts to 20 kt for a good part of the day on Tuesday and Tuesday
evening, though model guidance is fairly conservative. The
onshore nature of the winds will build waves which will reach 3
to 5 feet lasting into Wednesday morning. Surface high pressure
builds in from the northern lakes on Wednesday into Thursday,
resulting in lighter winds.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...KEC/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Jamison
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...KEC/Lombardy
MARINE...Jamison


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