974
FXUS64 KLIX 141040
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
540 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

stretching the gale warning out to 8am but also taking a few zones
down to advisory as winds are beginning to ease to the west but
refuse to lower for most waters to the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Have cancelled the Flash Flood Watch for the entire area. Some
lingering rainfall will still occur this morning but rates and
amounts will not be enough to keep the watch going.

Wake depression(low) still keeping winds quite elevated this
morning. Most of this is over marine areas and this is quite common
as overland areas have rain cooled and become quite stable with a
low level inversion cutting wind speeds down considerably. The rain
is also pulling east and the only area that will see another small
amount of rain will be Jackson Co. There could be some left over
light rain around after daybreak but this will also move east. Cloud
cover will hand on until around late morning to noon but clearing
should be quick afterwards. We will then transition into somewhat
lower dew pts this morning and maintain those conditions for the
next few days. A cold front will also actually move through and
stall over the gulf tonight into early Wed and also remain over the
gulf through Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Thursday, this front will begin to move back to the north. This
front can be seen best via dew pt gradients. This frontal interface
will be the area that the next system will begin to use to develop
our next bout of rain. The warm front moves inland and stalls along
and NW of coastal Mississippi by late Thu. Models are in
disagreement on timing of this system, but they agree on the overall
synoptic picture. The upper troughing to the west will help make
this all possible again just like the issue we just came out of.
Another short wave will exit the base with upper split flow
continuing downstream. This is almost a diddo of what just occurred
with some minor tweeks in placement. The main theme with this one
will also be rainfall, but again, this complex of storms will also
have the potential for severity as well. We will just have to get
closer to the event to resolve the smaller details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Cigs will lift from IFR this morning to MVFR and finally to VFR
levels by late morning or noon today. There is a chance of getting a
abit more -RA for some of the eastern coastal locations this morning
but this will also be moving east. Clearing skies should be moving
in shortly after going to VFR cig levels.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Will hold the Gale warning through 6am and bring these conditions
down to advisory until mid morning before allowing all flags to
drop. Winds will slowly shift from SW to NW by Wed morning as a cold
front stalls over the northern gulf. A sfc high will rapidly move in
and east of the area Wed causing this stalled boundary to begin
moving back to the north for Thu causing return flow once again and
a rise in wind speed through the end of the week. Another strong
disturbance could impact the coastal waters by the end of this
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  60  86  63 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  88  65  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  88  65  90  67 /  30   0   0   0
MSY  87  70  90  72 /  20   0   0   0
GPT  86  66  90  67 /  40   0   0   0
PQL  86  65  90  64 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-550-
     570.

     Gale Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534-536-538-
     552-555-557-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-552-555-557-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ550-570.

     Gale Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for GMZ534-536-538-552-
     555-557-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ534-536-
     538-552-555-557-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE