892
FXUS62 KMHX 160200
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep across ENC tonight with high pressure
building in behind it, keeping Thursday dry. Another low
pressure system impacts us this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 10 PM Wed...Severe threat has since ended, and in it`s
wake an MCV has formed off the NC coast with a stratiform rain
area with some embedded thunder in it`s wake. Thus will hang
onto likely showers with chc thunder through the next few hours,
before showers taper off and move offshore. Rest of the night is
quiet.

Prev disc... As of 707 PM Wed...Severe storms that formed over
the last two hours are beginning to weaken over the past 30 min,
and should cont to do so. Still, some small hail and gusty
winds can be expected with any remaining storms through around 9
pm this evening, before storms weaken to showers and eventually
dissipating after midnight. Remainder of the night will be
quiet, with some patchy light fog developing late.

Prev disc...As of 3:30 PM Wednesday...Latest surface analysis
shows the cold front draped nearly parallel to Core Banks. This
boundary has been a source of lift for the showers and
thunderstorms that have moved across the area over the past
several hours.

All convection within the FA has waned, but a second round is
expected later this afternoon and evening (especially south of
HWY 64) due to a cold front and mid-level low moving across the
area. Storms that develop have the potential to become strong
to severe given the RAP mesoanalysis showing 1000-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, 50-55+ kt of effect shear, and mid-level lapse rates
around 6 C/km. As a result, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect until 8 PM for Lenoir, Pamlico, Jones, Craven, Duplin,
Onslow, and Carteret Counties. The primary concerns with these
storms are damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe threat will
decrease after sunset, but strong to severe storms are still
possible through the evening. Convection will decrease after
midnight and lows will drop to the low 60s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 4 PM Wednesday...A nice day is in store as we settle into
the post-frontal air mass and upper ridging builds in. Cloud
cover will hang around through the day, but we`ll be dry with
highs in the upper 70s along the coastal plain and low 70s along
the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 430 AM Wednesday...High pressure builds in Thursday night
into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the
area this weekend. High pressure builds in early next week.

Thursday through Friday...Upper ridging builds in from the
west Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic
coast slowly moving eastward. Lowered PoPs to below mentionable
with most guidance now indicating dry conditions and model
soundings showing only a shallow saturated layer above 850mb
and very dry well mixed conditions below that. If any showers do
develop, they will likely only produce virga. Ridging crest
over the area Friday with mainly dry conditions expected but
will see increasing clouds as the next system approaches and
could see an isolated shower move in from the west late in the
day.

Friday night through Sunday night...A complex low pressure
system will impact the region through most of the weekend. A
southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into
the region Friday night into Saturday with sfc low pressure
moving across the region late Saturday or early Sunday. The
system then transitions into a vertically stack low as it slowly
pushes across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the
latter half of the weekend. As with most cut-off systems, there
are differences among the models with the evolution, timing and
track with this system but unsettled weather will impact the
region through much of the period.

Monday and Tuesday...The upper low slowly pulls away from the
area early next week with high pressure building in from the
west with generally dry conditions expected.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 707 PM Wed...A mixed bag of flight categories is expected
over the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms that
developed south of Hwy 70, will be ongoing through the mid
evening, and eventually dissipate by midnight. With the today`s
rainfall and overnight winds expected to go light to calm, fog
development cannot be ruled out, but the most likely scenario
will be IFR to possibly LIFR stratus. Conditions will improve to
VFR by mid- morning.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 445 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected Thursday through
Friday with high pressure building into the area. Another
low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend
bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night through
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 4 PM Wed...Poor boating conditions continue with 4-6 ft
seas and SW winds around 10-15 kt, veering to the NW overnight.
SCA conditions should cease by early tomorrow morning with seas
decreasing to 3-5 ft.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 5 AM Wednesday...Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will
slowly push away from the area Thursday with high pressure
transitioning across the waters on Friday with conditions
expected to remain below Small Craft Criteria. A complex low
pressure system will impact the region Friday night through
Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance
for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through
the weekend but cannot rule out a period of low end SCA mainly
late Saturday/Saturday night. The best opportunity for SCA
conditions will be late in the weekend or early next week as low
pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. There are differences
among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure
to follow updates as details come into focus.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SK/SGK
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...SK/OJC